IEA Says Faster Electrification Could Leave 2035 Oil Use 18 Million Barrels a Day Lower
Electricity could cost effectively meet 33 percent of the world’s final energy consumption by 2035, against 23 percent today, and faster electrification could leave the world using 18 million fewer barrels of oil a day than it otherwise would, the International Energy Agency said in a special report published on Tuesday. The report was prepared at the request of Turkiye, which holds the COP31 presidency, and Australia, which presides over the negotiations.
The shock is the starting point
The agency frames the analysis against this year’s Strait of Hormuz crisis, which it calls the second major energy shock in five years, and says the cost effective share is calculated on energy prices at the levels seen before the current supply shock. At today’s prices, it says, even more of the world’s energy consumption would be cost effective to electrify. In its high electrification scenario the rate reaches 35 percent by 2035, the level of the global target under discussion, and the agency says the 33 percent cost effective potential puts that target within striking distance.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Electricity share of final energy today | 23% |
| Cost effective share by 2035 | 33% |
| High electrification scenario by 2035 | 35% |
| Avoided world oil use by 2035 | 18 million barrels a day against what it would otherwise be |
| Avoided oil imports by importing countries | 15 million barrels a day against today |
| Import bill saving by 2035 | more than 400bn dollars against 2025 levels |
| Emissions cut in transport, buildings and industry | 40% by 2035 |
International Energy Agency, Electrification, special report published 22 September 2026.
The gains are largest where the imports are
The saving splits into 300 billion dollars a year for advanced economies and China at 2025 import prices and more than 100 billion for other emerging and developing economies, equal to nearly 30 percent and more than 25 percent of their 2025 fuel import bills. Avoided gas imports reach 120 billion cubic metres a year and avoided coal imports 100 million tonnes of coal equivalent. The regional spread of the cost effective gain runs from about 5 percentage points in the Middle East, the smallest of any region, to almost 15 points in Europe and India. Electric vehicles accounted for nearly a quarter of new car sales in 2025, against less than 1 percent in 2015.
Why it matters: the report is written from the importer’s side, and every figure in it is a saving for a buyer of fuel. For Gulf exporters the same arithmetic runs the other way, and the region also shows the smallest cost effective electrification gain in the report, which the agency attributes to the structure of regional energy consumption rather than to any single factor. The agency does not quantify a corresponding revenue effect on oil exporters.
Outlook: the report is the basis for discussions at the energy transition dialogue held alongside the United Nations General Assembly, where countries are considering a global electrification target of 35 percent. The agency says realising the potential needs investment in generation and grids and more flexible power systems, and warns of concentrated supply chains for critical minerals, without putting a figure on the investment required.
Sources: International Energy Agency.
