US 10 Year Yield Ends the Week at 5.17 Percent After Its Highest Close Since 2007
The US 10 year Treasury par yield closed at 5.17 percent on 25 September, up 16 basis points on the week and 99 basis points since the end of 2025, according to the Treasury’s daily par yield curve. Before this week, the 10 year last stood at or above that level on 6 July 2007, when it was 5.19 percent. The 30 year closed at 5.49 percent, its highest of 2026, and the 20 year at 5.54 percent, its highest since June 2004.
Every tenor higher on the week
| Tenor | 25 Sep 2026 (%) | Week change (bp) | Change since 31 Dec 2025 (bp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 month | 4.24 | +10 | +57 |
| 2 year | 4.81 | +5 | +134 |
| 5 year | 4.98 | +12 | +125 |
| 10 year | 5.17 | +16 | +99 |
| 20 year | 5.54 | +16 | +75 |
| 30 year | 5.49 | +15 | +65 |
Treasury par yield curve rates at close. Week change against 18 September. Changes on our calculation.
The 10 year rose from 4.96 percent on 22 September to 5.18 percent on 24 September, its highest close since July 2007 on our reading, before easing 1 basis point on Friday. The spread between the 10 year and the 2 year stood at 36 basis points, about half its 71 basis point level at the end of 2025, on our calculation, and the 20 year yield sat 5 basis points above the 30 year.
Real yields did most of the lifting
The 10 year real yield rose 15 basis points on the week to 2.83 percent and the 30 year real yield 13 basis points to 3.22 percent, which leaves implied inflation compensation at about 2.34 percent over 10 years and 2.27 percent over 30 years, on our calculation. The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75 to 4 percent on 16 September on a 12 to 0 vote, and the 10 year now sits 117 basis points above the top of that range. CNBC linked the week’s move to hawkish comments from Fed Governor Michael Barr, high oil prices, a strong business survey and a global bond sell-off, and said CME FedWatch priced a 64 percent chance of an October hike. Bloomberg tied Friday’s rise in the 30 year to a stronger than expected consumer sentiment gauge.
Why it matters: With real yields leading, the rise raises the cost of long term borrowing for the US government, home buyers and companies at a time when policy rates are still rising.
Outlook: JOLTS on 29 September, GDP and PCE inflation on 30 September and the September jobs report on 2 October are the next tests for the long end.
Sources: US Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, CNBC, Bloomberg.
