Economists See US Payrolls Rising About 90,000 in September With Unemployment at 4.1 Percent
Economists expect the September employment report, due from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 2 October at 12:30 GMT, to show nonfarm payrolls rising about 90,000, with the unemployment rate holding at a one year low of 4.1 percent, Bloomberg reported on 26 September. That would follow a gain of 162,000 in August and would sit above the 71,000 average of the last 3 reported months, on our calculation.
The data run into Friday
| Release | Date and time (GMT) | Latest reading |
|---|---|---|
| JOLTS, August | 29 Sep, 14:00 | July openings 7.3 million |
| GDP third estimate, Q2 | 30 Sep, 12:30 | Second estimate 1.5% annualized |
| PCE price index, August | 30 Sep, 12:30 | July 3.7% y/y, core 3.3% |
| Employment Situation, September | 2 Oct, 12:30 | August +162,000, jobless rate 4.1% |
Schedules and latest readings from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The August report also revised June and July up by a combined 55,000 jobs, to gains of 31,000 and 21,000. Job openings stood at 7.3 million in July, with hires at 5.1 million and quits at 3.1 million.
Wages against prices
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent in August to 37.75 dollars and were up 3.1 percent on the year. The latest PCE price index showed inflation of 3.7 percent in the 12 months to July, and the August reading due on 30 September will give the first like for like comparison with August pay. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75 to 4 percent on 16 September, saying inflation remains elevated, and CME FedWatch priced a 64 percent chance of another hike in October as of 25 September, per CNBC.
Why it matters: A gain near 90,000 would keep hiring above the 71,000 average of the last 3 reported months while the Fed is raising rates, and the pay figures will show how far wages are keeping up with prices.
Outlook: The PCE data on 30 September and the jobs report on 2 October are the week’s main tests of how far tighter policy is slowing the economy.
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve, CNBC.
