GCC Puts UK Trade at 70 Billion Dollars as FTA Promises Duty-Free Entry for Over 99 Percent
Trade between the six Gulf Cooperation Council states and the United Kingdom was worth 70 billion dollars in 2025, on the estimate of GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi. He gave the figure in London on 20 October, opening the GCC-UK Strategic Dialogue before ministers from both sides. The free trade agreement concluded with Britain is expected to remove customs duties on more than 99 percent of GCC exports to the UK, he said.
Gulf exports set for duty-free entry to Britain
The Secretary General singled out three sectors for non-oil export growth: aluminium, fertiliser and manufacturing. He also pointed to the region’s role as a hub for logistics and re-exports, and to wider access to the British market for small and medium-sized firms.
Investment assets and liabilities between the UK and the GCC reached 643 billion dollars in 2024, he said. On his two rounded figures, that stock is 9.2 times the 2025 trade flow, on our calculation.
He also gave the bloc’s own scale. Combined GCC output is 2.4 trillion dollars, which places the six states among the world’s 10 largest economies. Foreign trade exceeded 1.8 trillion dollars, fifth in the world. On those two rounded figures, foreign trade equals 75 percent of GDP, on our calculation. Trade with the UK equals 3.9 percent of that foreign trade on the same rounded figures, on our calculation. On our reading, that leaves room to grow.
The Secretary General said the deal’s value would be “measured by the joint projects it generates”. He listed advanced manufacturing, the digital economy and artificial intelligence, clean energy, financial services, education, food security and logistics as the sectors to build on.
The GCC-UK relationship in figures
| Measure | Value | Year |
|---|---|---|
| GCC-UK trade, GCC estimate | $70bn | 2025 |
| GCC-UK investment assets and liabilities | $643bn | 2024 |
| GCC-UK total trade, UK measure | £53bn | 2025 |
| UK goods exports to the GCC | £18bn | 2025 |
| GCC combined GDP | $2.4tn | not dated |
| GCC foreign trade | above $1.8tn | not dated |
Dollar figures as given by the Secretary General on 20 October; sterling figures are UK official trade statistics. The two trade measures use different sources and currencies and are shown side by side, not converted.
The Gulf counts as Britain’s 10th largest trading partner
The UK Department for Business and Trade puts total trade with the GCC at 53 billion pounds in 2025. UK trade with the whole world came to 1,899.1 billion pounds that year, on our calculation from the EU and non-EU totals. The Gulf’s share is 2.8 percent, on our calculation.
Counted as one partner, the GCC is the equivalent of the UK’s 10th largest trading partner, the rank both sides cite. In the latest official table, Italy is 9th at 53.6 billion pounds and Switzerland 10th at 52.7 billion. GCC trade is 16 percent of the UK’s trade with the United States, its largest partner, on our calculation.
UK’s top trading partners in 2025, with the GCC
| Rank | Partner | Total trade (£bn) | Share of UK trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 331.7 | 17.5% |
| 2 | Germany | 152.3 | 8.0% |
| 9 | Italy | 53.6 | 2.8% |
| 10 | Switzerland | 52.7 | 2.8% |
| Equivalent 10th | GCC, combined | 53 | 2.8% |
Exports plus imports of goods and services, Office for National Statistics figures for 2025. The GCC is not in the official table; its rank is the equivalent position both sides cite, and its share is our calculation.
British goods exports to the Gulf reached 18 billion pounds in 2025, making the GCC the equivalent of the UK’s 8th largest goods export market. The rest of the 53 billion pounds of two-way trade, 35 billion pounds on the rounded figures and on our calculation, is goods flowing to Britain plus services in both directions.
UK official figures put investment assets and liabilities between the UK and Gulf Arabian countries at 485 billion pounds in 2024. That figure covers a wider group, adding Yemen and Iraq to the six GCC states, so on our reading it is not comparable with the 643 billion dollar GCC figure.
What the agreement changes at the border
Britain will remove tariffs on all current GCC exports from day one of the agreement. Pork, chicken and eggs are excluded.
The GCC applies a common external tariff of 5 percent on the majority of industrial and agricultural goods. Under the deal it will fully free 90 percent of its tariff lines 10 years after entry into force. Tariffs will come off 93 percent of UK exports to the Gulf, by the department’s estimate, saving 580 million pounds a year in duties. Of that, 360 million pounds goes on day one, 62.1 percent of the total on our calculation. The other 220 million pounds, on our calculation, comes off later; for some products the cut lands at the end of an agreed 5 or 10 year period.
Goods are to clear customs within 48 hours, or 6 hours for perishables. Traders can ask for advance rulings, due within 90 days.
The investment chapter includes investor-state dispute settlement. Britain will end its separate investment treaties with Oman and Bahrain when the deal enters into force; the UAE treaty stays. The GCC also made, for the first time, binding commitments to protect the free flow of financial data, according to the department. The department calls the deal the first free trade agreement the GCC has agreed with a G7 partner.
What the agreement is modelled to add for the UK
| Measure | £bn | Change |
|---|---|---|
| UK GDP | 3.7 | 0.1% |
| UK exports to the GCC | 14.3 | 22.6% |
| UK imports from the GCC | 1.3 | 8.2% |
| Total UK-GCC trade | 15.5 | 19.8% |
| UK real wages | 1.9 | 0.2% |
Department for Business and Trade modelling, changes applied to 2040 projections in 2024 prices; wages against 2024 data. The modelling is preliminary and not a forecast.
Exports carry 92.3 percent of the modelled trade gain, on our calculation. The export uplift is 2.8 times the import uplift in percentage terms, on our calculation. The tariff inputs point the same way, on our reading. On industrial goods the modelled cut is 2.3 percentage points for UK exports, against 0.4 points for imports from the GCC. Modelled together with the UK-India deal, the GDP gain is 8.5 billion pounds. The Gulf deal makes up 43.5 percent of it, on our calculation.
From conclusion to entry into force
Talks were launched on 22 June 2022. They concluded on 20 May 2026, 1,428 days later on our count. The deal was reached between the Secretary General and Britain’s Minister of State for Trade Policy. The London dialogue on 20 October came 153 days later, on our count.
In its June summary, the department said signature would follow once the legal text is finalised and legally verified. Then come UK scrutiny steps and Parliament’s ratification procedure, alongside ratification in each GCC state. Neither the June summary nor the 20 October statements give a date for signature or entry into force.
The GCC General Secretariat said the Secretary General met a UK Minister of State for Trade on the sidelines of the London dialogue. The two reviewed the latest developments on the agreement and stressed completing the procedures needed for it to enter into force.
Why it matters: For the Gulf, the deal is about selling more than oil to Britain. Duty-free entry for more than 99 percent of GCC exports to the UK would open the door wider for aluminium, fertiliser and other manufacturers, the sectors the Secretary General named. The Gulf already counts as the equivalent of Britain’s 10th largest trading partner. Yet the UK accounts for under 4 percent of GCC foreign trade, on our calculation. Investment assets and liabilities between the two sides reached 643 billion dollars in 2024.
Outlook: Under the sequence the department set out in June, signature follows once the legal text is finished, then ratification on both sides. The London meeting kept the procedures for entry into force on the agenda. Day one would bring tariff-free entry for current Gulf exports to Britain, and the first 360 million pounds of tariff cuts for British goods heading the other way.
Sources: GCC General Secretariat, UK Department for Business and Trade, Office for National Statistics, The Edge.
