Egypt’s Proposed Programme Targets 6.8 Percent Growth and a 67 Percent Private Investment Share
Egypt aims to lift economic growth to 6.8 percent by fiscal year 2029/30, from 5.1 percent now, under a proposed National Economic Transformation Programme for 2027 to 2030, AFP reported from Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly’s presentation at Egypt Forum 2026 on 22 October. The plan would also raise the private sector’s share of total investment to 67 percent. The proposal now goes to two months of public dialogue. The government plans a final version by the end of December 2026, as the current IMF programme ends.
Private investment carries the plan
The programme targets total investment of 20 percent of GDP by fiscal 2029/30, from 12.7 percent now. That is a rise of 7.3 points, or 57.5 percent, on our calculation. Within that total, the private share is to climb to 67 percent from an estimated 57.7 percent in the Prime Minister’s presentation, a gain of 9.3 points on our calculation.
The two targets together mean a much larger private role. Private investment equals 7.3 percent of GDP today, on our calculation. At the target it would reach 13.4 percent, 1.8 times the current level, on our calculation. Public investment would edge up from 5.4 percent of GDP to 6.6 percent, on our calculation. The private sector would supply 6.1 of the 7.3 extra points, also on our calculation.
The framework adds ceilings on domestic and external debt and on sovereign guarantees, plus sukuk to fund public investment. It commits to a flexible exchange rate and a reorganised role for the state in the economy. The government intends the programme to become binding through a decision of the government or the President, with set mechanisms to monitor and assess it.
The programme involves full coordination between the government and the central bank. A Cabinet statement said Madbouly chaired a preparatory session on 21 October. Attending were Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Hussein Eissa, Central Bank Governor Hassan Abdalla, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk, Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid, Labour Minister Hassan Radad, Planning and Economic Development Minister Ahmed Rostom and Industry Minister Khaled Hashem. Its aim was to set measurable targets. The private sector is to be a main partner in development and in leading growth, the statement said.
National Economic Transformation Programme targets, 2027 to 2030
| Measure | Current | Target |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 5.1% | 6.8% |
| Investment to GDP | 12.7% | 20% |
| Private share of investment | 57.7% | 67% |
| Tax revenue to GDP | 13% | 15% |
| Current account deficit to GDP | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Unemployment | 5.8% | 5.5% |
| Inflation | 13.3% | 5% to 7% |
Targets and current levels, including the 13.3 percent inflation reference, as AFP reported them from the Prime Minister’s presentation on 22 October; they are proposals under public dialogue. The private share’s current level is an estimate. The Central Bank of Egypt’s latest urban headline rate, a separately published series, is 13.9 percent for September 2026.
Faster growth and a higher tax take
Growth reached 5.1 percent in fiscal 2025/26, a sign of marked resilience, the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development said on 6 October. The programme aims to move the economy away from consumption towards production, exports and investment, building on the industrial development and national employment strategies.
The extra 1.7 points, on our calculation, matter more than they look. An economy growing 6.8 percent a year doubles its output in 10.5 years; at 5.1 percent it takes 13.9 years, on our calculation. That is 3.4 years sooner, on our calculation.
Revenue is to rise without new taxes. The tax take is to climb from 13 percent of GDP to 15 percent by broadening the base, a 15.4 percent rise in the ratio on our calculation. The programme also plans to lift the minimum wage in the public and private sectors and to raise the personal tax exemption threshold.
The fiscal case is plain. Debt service stands at an estimated 2.3 trillion pounds in the current fiscal year’s budget, according to Madbouly. Interest payments absorb an estimated 67 to 68 percent of state revenue, he said. The debt and guarantee ceilings and a higher tax take are the programme’s answer, on our reading.
Inflation is the other test. The programme’s own reference rate is 13.3 percent, as reported from the presentation. Separately, the central bank’s annual urban headline rate eased to 13.9 percent in September from 14.5 percent in August. Core inflation was 14.1 percent. From the September reading, the 5 to 7 percent range is a further 6.9 to 8.9 points away, on our calculation.
External accounts give the programme a base
The programme’s current account target is a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP, 45.1 percent of today’s 5.1 percent ratio, on our calculation. The latest full-year accounts set the starting point.
Workers’ remittances, a line inside the current account itself, rose 29.6 percent to 47.27 billion dollars in fiscal 2025/26, equivalent to 2.1 times the year’s current account deficit, on our calculation. Net foreign direct investment into Egypt rose 47.2 percent to 18.0 billion dollars, equivalent to 80.2 percent of the deficit, on our calculation. Non-oil exports grew 7.8 percent to 37.31 billion dollars, 85.0 percent of all exports on our calculation. Travel receipts rose 10.3 percent. The run of remittances has carried into 2026: an estimated 33.9 billion dollars arrived in January to August, 27.2 percent more than a year earlier, the central bank said.
Egypt’s external accounts, fiscal year 2025/26
| Measure ($ million) | 2024/25 | 2025/26 |
|---|---|---|
| Workers’ remittances | 36,460.3 | 47,267.3 |
| Net FDI into Egypt | 12,224.3 | 17,999.0 |
| Non-oil exports | 34,610.9 | 37,309.8 |
| Travel receipts | 16,725.3 | 18,443.7 |
| Overall balance | -2,074.3 | 2,813.3 |
Provisional figures from the Central Bank of Egypt’s balance of payments release of 12 October 2026. Growth rates and ratios in the text are our calculation.
The current account deficit itself widened to 22.46 billion dollars in fiscal 2025/26 from 15.42 billion dollars a year earlier, the same release showed. That gap is what the 2.3 percent target addresses, on our reading.
Borrowing is to follow the same discipline. Rostom told the forum’s session on foreign currency resources and debt management that external loan requests are studied under presidential directives. Repayment capacity is confirmed before approval. The aim is a gradual downward path for external debt, with repayments exceeding new borrowing, the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development said on 22 October. The ministry heads the technical secretariat of the External Debt Management Committee, which weighs requests against alternatives on cost and terms. Rostom pointed to stable sovereign ratings and positive assessments from three international agencies. He also cited a mechanism to guarantee the financing of infrastructure projects. On 17 October the ministry described a partnership with the World Bank to launch a mechanism to guarantee infrastructure project financing in local currency and to ease pressure on the budget.
Why it matters: The programme would give Egypt its own rulebook for the years after the IMF arrangement. It proposes numbers for the shift from consumption to production: the private sector is to supply 67 percent of investment, and the tax take is to rise to 15 percent of GDP without new taxes. Ceilings on debt and guarantees come with it. It starts from a year in which workers’ remittances rose 29.6 percent to 47.27 billion dollars and foreign direct investment rose 47.2 percent, on our calculation.
Outlook: Public dialogue runs for the next two months, and Deputy Prime Minister Hussein Eissa said the programme will be launched before the end of December 2026, MENA reported. The final text, the decision that would make it binding and the numerical ceilings on debt and guarantees are the next markers. The coming monthly remittances and inflation figures will show whether the base the programme starts from keeps improving.
Sources: Cabinet of Egypt, Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, Central Bank of Egypt, MENA, AFP, The Edge.
