Trump’s Beijing Visit Puts US-China Tensions Back at the Center of Global Markets

President Donald Trump’s expected visit to Beijing marks the first visit by a US president to China since November 2017, placing the world’s two largest economies back in market focus.

The summit comes amid rising trade, technology, and geopolitical tensions, with key files including tariffs, semiconductor restrictions, artificial intelligence, rare earths, Taiwan, Middle East risks, and navigation security through the Strait of Hormuz.

Key insights:

• US-China goods trade reached USD 414.7 billion in 2025. US exports to China fell 25.8 percent to USD 106.3 billion, while imports from China declined 29.7 percent to USD 308.4 billion.
• The US goods deficit with China stood at USD 202.1 billion in 2025, down 31.6 percent from 2024, but still equal to around 49 percent of total bilateral goods trade.
• The deficit narrowed mainly because US imports from China fell by USD 130.4 billion, compared with a USD 36.9 billion decline in US exports, suggesting trade diversion rather than full decoupling.
• The 2024 US services surplus with China covered only about 16 percent of the 2025 goods deficit.
• Tariffs remain a central pressure point, while semiconductor controls, AI restrictions, and China’s rare earth leverage remain key supply chain risks.

The main takeaway is that this summit may reduce short-term uncertainty, but it is unlikely to resolve the deeper structural rivalry. Markets will watch whether it delivers practical de-escalation or simply extends a tactical pause in a longer phase of managed competition.