Egypt’s IMF Review Faces Food and Energy Stress

The IMF is monitoring how the Middle East conflict is feeding into energy costs, fertilizer shipments, and food security, just as Egypt seeks progress on the latest reviews of its IMF supported program.

The key issue is no longer only external financing. It is how higher energy, freight, and fertilizer costs could pass through into food prices, fiscal pressure, and Egypt’s import bill.

Key insights:

• Egypt could access around USD 1.6 billion if a staff level agreement is reached under the latest IMF review discussions, providing an important external liquidity buffer.
• The new review follows February’s completion of the fifth and sixth IMF reviews, which allowed Egypt to draw about USD 2.3 billion under the EFF and RSF framework.
• The IMF warned that fertilizer price increases can take around six months to feed through into food prices, creating delayed pressure on agriculture, crop yields, and household costs.
• Fertilizer risk is becoming more global. Around 25 to 30 percent of world nitrogen fertilizer exports normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Egypt’s exposure is high because food, fuel, and fertilizer costs directly affect subsidies, imports, inflation, and foreign currency needs.
• External financing remains critical, with estimates pointing to about USD 36.3 billion in external debt repayments and interest due in H1 2026.

The main takeaway is that IMF support is becoming more important as a stabilization anchor. For Egypt, the next review is not only about unlocking funding. It is about preserving confidence while energy shocks, fertilizer disruption, and food security risks test fiscal discipline and external liquidity.