MENA Markets Wrap 12 July: Gulf Bourses Absorb the Weekend Escalation as Saudi Arabia Closes Higher and Kuwait Holds Steady

The region’s first trading session since the escalation began ended with no rout, with orderly closes at every exchange that had published by evening. TASI closed 0.10 percent higher at 10,818.98 after a weaker morning stretch, per the session data, Boursa Kuwait’s All Share Index added 0.15 percent to 8,676.04, and the moves across Amman, Muscat and Manama were measured, while Egypt’s EGX30 eased 0.11 percent to 52,256.

The session followed a weekend in which Iran’s IRGC navy declared the strait closed to all transit, per state media reports carried by Reuters, after a container vessel was reported disabled, with further US strikes reported and several Gulf states reporting intercepted attacks near their territory. The declaration’s operational effect could not be independently verified at the time of writing. Against that backdrop, the pricing response was contained: the regional session traded through the news with gainers outnumbering losers in Riyadh, at 135 to 117, and the market breadth in Cairo mixed rather than defensive.

Riyadh set the tone. TASI’s finish at 10,818.98, up 10.55 points, reversed the earlier softness, and the MSCI Tadawul 30 closed 0.07 percent higher at 1,441.39. The recovery came roughly thirty-six hours after Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia at A+ with a stable outlook, citing strong fiscal and external balance sheets that have held through the conflict, an assessment that sits alongside S&P’s stress-test reading of Gulf banks’ resilience and the kingdom’s rising reserve assets, both covered on this site.

Kuwait split along market lines: the All Share Index rose 0.15 percent to 8,676.04 while the Premier Market Index slipped 0.10 percent to 9,081.79, a divergence that points to buying in the broader list rather than the large caps, our reading. Muscat’s MSX 30 added 0.10 percent to 7,652.14, Bahrain’s All Share edged up 0.06 percent to 2,010.90, and Amman’s ASE index rose 0.20 percent to 3,891.61.

Cairo’s session was a fade rather than a fall. The EGX30 closed 0.11 percent lower at 52,256 in a mixed session in which gainers outnumbered decliners 130 to 76 on the exchange’s summary, on a day the central bank reported a wider current account deficit for the nine months to March alongside a jump in remittances and a stronger overall balance, covered on this site.

Doha’s closing data had not been published by the time of writing, and the Qatar Stock Exchange announced, on directives from the Qatar Central Bank and the Qatar Financial Markets Authority citing the official mourning period, that trading is suspended from Monday 13 July and resumes on Sunday 19 July.

The UAE’s bourses do not trade on Sundays; their last prints are Friday’s, with the DFM General Index up 0.86 percent at 6,042.55 and Abu Dhabi’s FADGI up 0.55 percent at 9,936.08, making Monday’s opens the Emirates’ first response to the weekend. The same applies globally: Friday’s closes in New York, Europe and Asia all pre-date the escalation, from the S&P 500’s 0.42 percent gain to 7,575.39 and the Nikkei’s 1.20 percent rise to 68,557.73, to Brent’s settlement at 76.00 dollars, up about 6.2 percent on the week. No oil print yet reflects the weekend: crude futures reopen overnight, the first global price test of the new escalation.

Why it matters: A weekend of direct attacks reported near Gulf territory produced single-session moves of a fraction of one percent on every exchange that traded. That is the behaviour of markets that have already spent a month repricing this conflict, cushioned by the buffers the rating agencies keep flagging, with Fitch’s Saudi affirmation the freshest example. It is partial resilience rather than a full verdict: the UAE and Qatar did not trade, global markets were shut, and oil has yet to price the weekend, so the contained close protects the entry point for the week’s heavier tests rather than removing them.

Outlook: The next markers come in quick succession: crude futures reopen overnight, around 1:00 am Kuwait time, the UAE’s exchanges deliver the Gulf’s first Monday verdict, OPEC’s monthly report is due Monday, China’s June trade data lands early in the week with the crude import number the region watches, and Tuesday brings US CPI ninety minutes before Chair Warsh’s first congressional testimony. Qatar’s market stays dark through Saturday, leaving its reopening on the 19th as the week’s delayed data point.

Table – MENA closes, Sunday 12 July:

Sources: Saudi Exchange; Boursa Kuwait; Egyptian Exchange; Qatar Stock Exchange; Amman Stock Exchange; Muscat Stock Exchange; Bahrain Bourse; Dubai Financial Market; Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange; Fitch Ratings; S&P Global Ratings; Reuters; CNBC.

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