Commodities Wrap 11 August: US Oil Tops 83 on Hormuz While Cocoa Sinks 5 Percent

By The Edge Research Team

Energy led the commodities complex for a second straight session on Tuesday, extending the surge covered in our Monday commodities wrap, with West Texas Intermediate settling up 1.31 percent at 83.21 dollars a barrel and Brent up 1.35 percent at 88.90 dollars, per CNBC, as Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until its conditions are met. The counterpoint came from the softs, where cocoa sank nearly 5 percent, while gold went into Wednesday’s US inflation report almost exactly flat.

In energy, heating oil led the complex, settling up 1.54 percent at 4.2545 dollars a gallon, while gasoline closed barely changed at 3.1377 dollars and natural gas slipped 0.93 percent to 2.768 dollars per million British thermal units, per CNBC. The bid under crude had two supports beyond the headlines: Iran set conditions for reopening the strait and denied any direct talks with Washington, per CNBC, and oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels, its lowest since 1983, per CNBC. The EIA’s August Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday, raised its estimate of Middle East production shut in by the Hormuz constraints, kept US crude inventories below their five-year lows through the end of 2026, and sees Brent averaging 87 dollars this year before easing to 69 dollars in 2027, per the EIA.

In metals, the run paused. Gold settled almost unchanged, up 0.03 percent at 4,421.00 dollars an ounce, after trading above 4,450 earlier in the day as covered in our market wrap, while silver eased 0.94 percent to 64.66 dollars, leaving the gold-to-silver ratio at about 68.4, our calculation. Platinum slipped 0.45 percent to 1,745.70 dollars, palladium fell 1.40 percent to 1,362.00 dollars, and copper edged up 0.08 percent to 6.6215 dollars a pound, per CNBC.

In agriculture, the day’s biggest single move anywhere in the complex was cocoa, which sank 4.97 percent to 5,637.00 dollars a tonne, per CNBC. Wheat fell 1.56 percent to 630.50 cents a bushel and soybeans 1.00 percent to 1,167.75 cents, while sugar rose 1.64 percent to 16.74 cents a pound and cotton 0.68 percent to 84.43 cents, per CNBC. Corn eased 0.27 percent to 460.50 cents and coffee 0.35 percent to 312.80 cents a pound, per CNBC.

In rates and the wider tape, everything was pinned ahead of the inflation data. The US Dollar Index was little changed at 99.83, Treasury yields eased across the curve, with the 10-year at 4.684 percent, down 1.4 basis points, the two-year at 4.218 percent, down 2.1 basis points, and the 30-year at 5.236 percent, down 0.7 basis points, and the VIX held near 15.4, per CNBC. Bitcoin fell 1.08 percent to about 63,246 dollars, per CNBC.

Why it matters: The oil market is now pricing the Hormuz constraint as a condition that lasts, not a headline that fades, our reading. Tuesday stacked three reinforcing signals: Iran attaching conditions to any reopening, the US strategic reserve at a 43-year low, and the EIA’s own outlook raising its estimate of shut-in supply while holding US inventories below five-year lows through 2026. The agency’s price path, Brent averaging 87 dollars this year but 69 next, frames the trade succinctly: tightness now, relief later, with the timing resting on diplomacy and the actual restoration of transit and production. Around that, the rest of the complex told the opposite story, gold flat, the dollar and volatility pinned, and cocoa’s 5 percent break a reminder of how quickly crowded commodity trades unwind when a market this nervous repositions.

Outlook: Wednesday carries the double catalyst, US consumer prices at 8:30 AM New York time, 3:30 PM Kuwait time, and the EIA’s weekly inventory data later that day, our reading. Hormuz headlines remain the binary risk in either direction. The markers are whether Brent holds above 88 dollars once the inventory data lands, how gold trades through the inflation print after stalling at the 4,450 area, and whether cocoa’s break extends or snaps back.

Table – Energy, 11 August, ranked by change:

Table – Metals, 11 August, ranked by change:

Table – Agriculture, 11 August, ranked by change:

Table – Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto, intraday 11 August, ranked by percent change:

Sources: CNBC; EIA.

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