US and German 30 Year Yields Rose 10 Basis Points in Two Sessions in a Near Parallel Shift

By The Edge Research Team

Long dated government bond yields have risen again. The German 30 year spot rate reached 3.89 percent on 18 August, up 5 basis points on the day, and the 10 year 3.32 percent, up 6. Among the official national series used for this article, Germany was the only one with 18 August observations available at the time of writing. On 17 August the United States 30 year par yield was 5.31 percent, the German 30 year 3.84 percent and the Japanese 30 year reference rate 4.050 percent, each read from the issuing authority’s own daily series rather than from a quote feed.

Germany is the market where both sessions can be measured, and it moved in both. The 10 year went from 3.22 percent on 14 August to 3.26 on 17 August and 3.32 on 18 August. The 30 year went from 3.79 to 3.84 and then 3.89. That is 10 basis points at each point across the two sessions, so the move was parallel rather than a steepening: the gap between the two maturities was 57 basis points on 14 August and 57 on 18 August. Within that, the second session was marginally flatter, with the 10 year up 6 basis points and the 30 year up 5. The United States moved the same way. The 30 year par yield went from 5.21 percent on 13 August to 5.25 on 14 August and 5.31 on 17 August, a rise of 10 basis points, while the 10 year went from 4.63 to 4.68 and 4.72, a rise of 9. So the American curve shifted almost in parallel too, 10 basis points at the long end against 9 at the 10 year, and the 18 August observations had not been published when this was written. The Japanese 10 year moved from 2.878 to 2.919 percent between 14 and 17 August.

A note on what these series are. The three official measures are not the same construct. The United States figure is a Treasury par yield curve rate, the German figure is a modelled estimated spot rate on listed federal securities, and the Japanese figure is a Ministry of Finance reference rate. They are each the issuing authority’s own daily series, which is why they are used here, but levels are not strictly comparable across countries and changes within a single series are the sounder comparison.

The curves are steep at the long end in all three markets. On 17 August the United States 30 year sat 59 basis points above the 10 year, Germany 58, and Japan 113. On 18 August the German gap was 57, the same as on 14 August. Japan’s slope is therefore close to twice as steep as the other two. Wire coverage has described several of these levels as multi year or multi decade highs. The issuing authorities publish levels and not commentary, so those characterisations cannot be confirmed from the primary sources and are not asserted here.

Equities. Europe closed lower on 18 August, and London was the exception. The CAC 40 closed at 8,509.36, down 70.24 points or 0.82 percent, and the DAX at 26,134.95, down 203.66 or 0.77 percent. The FTSE 100 closed at 10,734.38, up 14.08 or 0.13 percent, the only one of the three to gain. United States equities were still trading when this was written. On 17 August the S&P 500 closed at 7,745.06, down 0.52 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 53,459.78, down 0.51 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,644.91, down 0.32 percent. In Europe the CAC 40 closed at 8,579.60 and the FTSE 100 at 10,720.30. On 18 August the Nikkei 225 closed at 67,460.73, down 1,759.52 points or 2.54 percent, while Hong Kong and Shanghai were marginally higher, the Hang Seng at 25,471.15 and the Shanghai Composite at 3,990.30, and the Shenzhen Component fell 0.56 percent to 14,622.50.

Crude settled sharply higher on 17 August and has held the level. Brent’s front month October contract on ICE Futures Europe, which is Brent’s primary venue and not CME, settled at 90.87 dollars on 17 August. The West Texas Intermediate September contract settled at 84.50 dollars on CME, up 2.10 dollars or 2.5 percent on the day. Gold settled at 4,440.1 dollars on the COMEX October contract on 17 August, up 36.4 dollars, and the LBMA afternoon benchmark that day was 4,405.80.

Currencies and the European policy setting. The European Central Bank’s reference rates on 18 August were 1.1576 dollars to the euro, 184.87 yen and 0.85585 sterling, against 1.1593, 184.59 and 0.8550 the day before. The euro is therefore marginally weaker against the dollar and marginally firmer against the yen and sterling. The ECB’s deposit facility rate is 2.25 percent, the main refinancing rate 2.40 percent and the marginal lending rate 2.65 percent, all with effect from 17 June 2026, when the deposit rate was raised by 25 basis points from 2.00 percent.

A note on timing, because the morning wire snapshot and the later official readings differ in three places. Reuters reported the Nikkei 225 down 2.1 percent on 18 August; Nikkei’s own official close was down 2.54 percent, so the index finished materially worse than the intraday figure the wire captured. Reuters cited a 30 year Treasury yield of 5.321 percent intraday on 18 August; the Treasury’s own published series gives 5.31 percent for 17 August and had not posted 18 August at the time of writing, so the two are different measures on different days. Reuters described Brent as up for a third day; on the ICE screen the front month was marginally below the 17 August settle in the morning and marginally above it by the early afternoon, so the direction was not settled while the session ran.

Why it matters: A repricing at the long end raises the benchmark cost of long dated funding, all else equal, for borrowers pricing new debt off these curves. The move was close to parallel in both markets where it can be measured on official data: 10 basis points at both the 10 and the 30 year point in Germany, and 9 at the 10 year against 10 at the 30 year in the United States. For Gulf issuers accessing long dated dollar markets the long end of the Treasury curve is the key benchmark, and the 30 year has moved 10 basis points across the sessions to 17 August. That is a different question from the direction of policy rates, none of which changed in the period covered here.

Outlook: The United States, Japanese and United Kingdom yield series for 18 August publish after their respective market closes, and the Brent and WTI settles follow this evening. European equity closes for 18 August are included above. The United States import and export price indices for July were released this morning. The next scheduled tests are the United Kingdom consumer price release and the minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting, both on 19 August. On market implied probabilities of a European Central Bank move in September, no originator or exchange publishes such a measure, and any figure in circulation should be attributed to whoever calculated it.

Sources: Deutsche Bundesbank daily estimated spot rates for federal securities · US Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve · Japan Ministry of Finance JGB interest rates · Bank of England interactive database · S&P Dow Jones Indices · Nasdaq · Euronext Paris · London Stock Exchange · Nikkei Inc · Hang Seng Indexes · Shanghai Stock Exchange · Shenzhen Stock Exchange · ICE Futures Europe · CME Group · LBMA · European Central Bank euro reference rates and key interest rates, all as at 14, 17 and 18 August 2026 · Reuters Morning Bid, 18 August 2026, as lead and cross check. Curve gaps, day on day changes and percentage moves calculated by The Edge Research Team.

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