Europe’s Benchmark Gas Price Jumps 20.1 Percent in July as INSEE Tracks a Widening Energy Split
The European benchmark natural gas price that INSEE tracks each month jumped 20.1 percent in July from June, while the benchmark price of oil in euros was virtually stable, up just 0.3 percent, according to the French statistics institute’s monthly reading of energy and imported raw material prices.
Oil and gas prices moved in opposite directions in the same month
North Sea Brent crude averaged 83.9 dollars a barrel in July, down 0.7 percent from June, but in euros the price was virtually stable at 73.5 euros a barrel, up 0.3 percent, because the dollar appreciated against the euro over the period. Comparing the two currency readings implies the dollar gained about 1.0 percent against the euro over the month, on our calculation, consistent with INSEE’s own note that the currency move explains the gap between the dollar and euro prices. Natural gas on the European TTF market averaged 54.0 euros a megawatt hour, up 20.1 percent on the month after a 4.9 percent fall in June, a swing of about 25.0 percentage points between the two months, on our calculation, and up 59.0 percent from a year earlier. The gap between July’s oil and gas price moves in euros was about 19.8 percentage points, on our calculation. Uranium, priced at 75.0 euros a pound, rose 1.0 percent on the month and 20.5 percent over the year, a steadier path than either oil or gas.
| Energy price | Level | Change on month |
|---|---|---|
| Brent, dollars a barrel | 83.9 | -0.7% |
| Brent, euros a barrel | 73.5 | +0.3% |
| Natural gas TTF, euros/MWh | 54.0 | +20.1% |
| Uranium, euros/pound | 75.0 | +1.0% |
INSEE, Informations rapides No. 205, 25 August 2026. Prices are monthly averages in the stated currency.
INSEE treats the energy row above as global or European benchmark prices, Brent for oil, TTF for gas, uranium on the New York Mercantile Exchange, rather than a price specific to French purchases. The non-energy raw material index below is different in kind: INSEE weights it by each material’s actual share in French imports, which is why it can be read more directly as a France-specific cost gauge.
Industrial metals fell on the month but remain sharply higher over the year
INSEE’s broader index of imported industrial raw materials fell 3.1 percent in July from June, though it was up 20.7 percent from a year earlier. Among the strategic materials INSEE tracks, lithium fell 5.2 percent on the month but is up 107.3 percent over the year, the largest annual increase of the group, on our reading, ahead of cobalt’s 73.5 percent annual rise and copper’s 41.5 percent. Silver fell 11.4 percent on the month even as it stands 59.0 percent higher than a year ago. Food commodity prices, by contrast, rose 4.9 percent on the month, led by a 22.2 percent jump in tropical commodities such as cocoa and coffee.
| Strategic material | Change on month | Change on year |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium | -5.2% | +107.3% |
| Cobalt | +0.9% | +73.5% |
| Copper | +0.5% | +41.5% |
| Silver | -11.4% | +59.0% |
INSEE, Informations rapides No. 205, 25 August 2026.
Why it matters: For France, and for the euro area more broadly since TTF is the regional gas benchmark INSEE uses, a 20.1 percent monthly jump in the benchmark gas price signals cost pressure that can feed into household energy bills and industrial input costs, even though it is not itself the retail price French consumers pay and the pass-through is neither immediate nor one for one, just as oil, the other main energy benchmark, stayed essentially flat. The divergence matters for inflation forecasting specifically because models built on oil alone would miss most of July’s energy cost pressure, which came almost entirely from gas. The sharp annual gains in lithium, cobalt and copper, all inputs to batteries and electrical equipment, point to a separate and continuing cost pressure on the energy transition supply chain that is distinct from the month’s oil and gas story.
Outlook: The next INSEE release, due 25 September 2026, will show whether July’s gas price jump continues into August or proves to be a single month move, and whether the industrial metals index stabilises after July’s monthly decline or resumes the upward trend visible in its year on year figures.
Sources: INSEE (French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies).
