Commodities Wrap 28 August: silver falls 4.31 percent as the 2 year Treasury yield rises 14 basis points after Warsh speech
Silver was down 4.31 percent at 66.44 dollars an ounce and gold 3.30 percent at 4,510.00 dollars an ounce in a snapshot captured at 20:18 GMT on Friday, measured against their 27 August settlements. The falls came as the 2 year Treasury yield rose 14 basis points to 4.34 percent, the largest increase across the maturities carried below, on our calculation from the Treasury’s own figures.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole symposium that “we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed”. He also said: “Otherwise, we have work to do.”
Precious metals split as palladium climbs and silver slides
The metals board did not move as one. Palladium rose 6.55 percent to 1,444.50 dollars an ounce while silver fell 4.31 percent, a spread of 10.86 percentage points across the metals board on our calculation.
Silver’s steeper fall lifted the gold to silver ratio to 67.88 from 67.17 measured on the 27 August settlements, a widening of 0.71 points on our calculation, with gold quoted for December delivery and silver for September, so the ratio is indicative. Copper eased 0.78 percent and platinum 1.11 percent, leaving palladium the only metal on the board to rise, on our calculation.
| Metal | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Palladium, NYMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | $1,444.50 | +6.55% |
| Copper, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars a pound | $6.637 | -0.78% |
| Platinum, NYMEX (Oct’26), dollars an ounce | $1,833.20 | -1.11% |
| Gold, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | $4,510.00 | -3.30% |
| Silver, COMEX (Sep’26), dollars an ounce | $66.44 | -4.31% |
Most active contract quotes captured at 20:18 GMT on 28 August 2026, after the settlement window. These are quoted levels, not exchange settlements. Changes are measured against each contract’s 27 August exchange settlement, which is CME Group’s own, so they are settlement to snapshot. Each row names its delivery month; vendors roll to the next active month at different times. Levels from CNBC.
Refined products gain while crude eases
Energy split along the refining margin. RBOB gasoline rose 2.79 percent to 3.4786 dollars a gallon and ULSD heating oil 1.52 percent, while West Texas Intermediate eased 0.14 percent and Brent 0.37 percent.
On our calculation that widens the gasoline crack against WTI to 62.69 dollars a barrel from 58.61 dollars on the 27 August settlements, an increase of 4.08 dollars or 6.97 percent. The two legs are quoted in different delivery months, September for gasoline and October for crude, so the spread is indicative rather than a tradeable one. Natural gas was the weakest energy contract, down 1.37 percent, on our calculation.
| Energy | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| RBOB Gasoline, NYMEX (Sep’26), dollars a gallon | $3.4786 | +2.79% |
| ULSD Heating Oil, NYMEX (Sep’26), dollars a gallon | $4.3439 | +1.52% |
| WTI Crude, NYMEX (Oct’26), dollars a barrel | $83.41 | -0.14% |
| Brent Crude, ICE (Oct’26), dollars a barrel | $89.37 | -0.37% |
| Natural Gas, NYMEX (Oct’26), dollars a million Btu | $2.874 | -1.37% |
Most active contract quotes captured at 20:18 GMT on 28 August 2026, after the settlement window. These are quoted levels, not exchange settlements. Changes are measured against each contract’s 27 August prior close, so they are settlement to snapshot. The four NYMEX settlements are the exchange’s own; Brent’s previous close is the one published with the quote.
Cocoa leads a mixed agricultural board
Cocoa rose 7.50 percent to 6,636.00 dollars a metric ton, the largest gain anywhere in this wrap, on our calculation. Wheat added 2.99 percent and soybeans 1.56 percent.
The board was not uniform. Sugar fell 3.46 percent and cotton 1.03 percent, leaving 5 of the 7 agricultural contracts higher, on our calculation. The gap between cocoa and sugar was 10.96 percentage points on our calculation, marginally wider than the 10.86 points separating the metals.
| Commodity | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Cocoa, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a metric ton | $6,636.00 | +7.50% |
| Wheat, CBOT (Dec’26), cents a bushel | 783.50 | +2.99% |
| Soybeans, CBOT (Nov’26), cents a bushel | 1,287.75 | +1.56% |
| Coffee, ICE (Dec’26), cents a pound | 312.60 | +0.95% |
| Corn, CBOT (Dec’26), cents a bushel | 536.25 | +0.52% |
| Cotton, ICE (Dec’26), cents a pound | 91.46 | -1.03% |
| Sugar, ICE (Oct’26), cents a pound | 17.56 | -3.46% |
Most active contract quotes captured at 20:18 GMT on 28 August 2026, after the settlement window. These are quoted levels, not exchange settlements. Changes are measured against each contract’s 27 August prior close, so they are settlement to snapshot. The three CBOT settlements are the exchange’s own; for the four ICE contracts the previous closes are those published with the quotes. Levels are in the unit named in each row. The Chicago Board of Trade grain settlement window closes at 18:15 GMT.
Treasury yields, the dollar and crypto
The curve repriced hardest at the front. The 2 year rose 14 basis points to 4.34 percent, the largest increase across the maturities in the table below, with the 1 year up 11 basis points, the 6 month 8, the 3 month and the 10 year 6 each, and the 1 month and the 30 year 3, on our calculation. That flattens the 2 year to 10 year segment to 39 basis points from 47 the day before, an 8 basis point compression in one session on the same calculation.
The dollar index rose 0.51 percent to 99.663 in the same snapshot. Bitcoin dropped 3.19 percent, ether 2.95 percent, gold 3.30 percent and silver 4.31 percent, while palladium rose 6.55 percent.
Official daily par yield curve
| Maturity | 28 Aug 2026 | 27 Aug 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month | 3.84% | 3.81% | +3 bp |
| 3 Month | 3.90% | 3.84% | +6 bp |
| 6 Month | 4.02% | 3.94% | +8 bp |
| 1 Year | 4.15% | 4.04% | +11 bp |
| 2 Year | 4.34% | 4.20% | +14 bp |
| 10 Year | 4.73% | 4.67% | +6 bp |
| 30 Year | 5.22% | 5.19% | +3 bp |
United States Department of the Treasury, official daily par yield curve. The curve is derived from indicative bid side quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Changes are on our calculation.
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.663 | +0.51% |
| Dollar/yen | 160.07 | +0.43% |
| Pound/dollar | 1.3538 | -0.40% |
| Euro/dollar | 1.1585 | -0.57% |
| Ether, dollars | $2,434.23 | -2.95% |
| Bitcoin, dollars | $77,507.41 | -3.19% |
Intraday quotes from the same 20:18 GMT capture on 28 August 2026, measured against each instrument’s previous close.
Why it matters: Friday’s clearest cross asset signal came from the front of the Treasury curve. A 14 basis point move on the 2 year is a repricing of what money costs over the next two years, and it came with a firmer dollar, gold down 3.30 percent, silver down 4.31 percent and bitcoin down 3.19 percent. On our reading that is the pattern a tighter near term rate path tends to produce, and the commodity board still had a mind of its own: palladium rose 6.55 percent on the same session, and the agricultural contracts carried the widest dispersion of any board in the wrap at 10.96 percentage points, on our calculation. A single description of commodity direction would have been wrong on Friday in both directions at once. In energy the product side outran the barrel, widening the indicative gasoline to crude gap by 6.97 percent on our calculation even as crude itself eased.
Outlook: Whether Friday’s front end repricing persists is the main macro signal to watch. In metals, the split between palladium and the rest of the board will show whether Friday’s dispersion survives into the next session. In energy, the question is whether the product to crude divergence holds after gasoline and heating oil rose while crude eased. Agriculture remains the least uniform part of the board, with the 10.96 percentage point gap between cocoa and sugar on our calculation underlining how much of the move was commodity specific.
Sources: Federal Reserve, keynote remarks by Chairman Warsh at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, 28 August 2026; CME Group, final settlement reports for 27 August 2026; CNBC, quotes captured at 20:18 GMT on 28 August 2026 after the settlement windows; United States Department of the Treasury, official daily par yield curve.
