ECB Raises Its Key Rates 25 Basis Points as European Stocks Ease and Miners Slide
European equity markets were mostly lower on Thursday after the European Central Bank raised its 3 key interest rates by 25 basis points, with 10 of the 11 benchmarks on our board down but the declines shallow, none as deep as 1 percent. The Netherlands’ AEX was the weakest, down 0.78 percent, and Germany’s DAX fell 0.69 percent, while Portugal’s PSI 20 was the lone riser, up 0.11 percent.
The ECB raised rates as inflation stays above target
The Governing Council raised the rate on its deposit facility to 2.50 percent, its main refinancing operations to 2.65 percent and its marginal lending facility to 2.90 percent, effective 16 September, its move driven by inflation it expects to remain well above target for an extended period. Its new staff projections put headline inflation at 3.0 percent this year, 2.5 percent in 2027 and 2.1 percent in 2028, with energy costs among the pressures keeping it elevated. The equity reaction was contained and sovereign bond yields barely moved, the German 10 year holding near 3.50 percent, which on our reading points to a move the market had largely anticipated rather than a surprise.
Miners and technology led a shallow, broad retreat
The retreat was broad but shallow, with only Portugal higher and the rest of the board down by between 0.13 percent and 0.78 percent; with Portugal’s small gain, the board spanned about 0.89 percentage points from top to bottom on our calculation. That is far shallower than Wednesday, when the board ran a 1.56 percentage point spread and every index fell, per our Europe wrap of 9 September, so Thursday was a second down day but a much gentler one. The real move was at the sector level: the Stoxx Europe 600 basic resources index tumbled 3.79 percent, by far the largest move of any sector, and technology fell 1.52 percent, while autos rose 0.36 percent. The commodity linked sectors that had been Wednesday’s refuge reversed, with oil and gas down 0.26 percent after leading the market a day earlier, a rotation that came alongside the cut to the oil demand growth outlook in OPEC’s monthly report, covered in our report of the same day, on our reading.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| PSI 20 (Portugal) | 9,455.72 | +0.11% |
| FTSE MIB (Italy) | 51,807.40 | -0.13% |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 19,659.80 | -0.18% |
| OMXS30 (Sweden) | 3,244.98 | -0.41% |
| SMI (Switzerland) | 13,740.10 | -0.47% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 8,116.76 | -0.49% |
Closes on Thursday 10 September 2026, ranked by change and split across 2 tables for legibility on a phone; the second table carries the rest of the board. Every change reconciles against our own published closes of 9 September.
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Euro Stoxx 50 (eurozone) | 6,276.97 | -0.55% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 10,608.92 | -0.57% |
| Stoxx Europe 600 (Europe) | 636.49 | -0.61% |
| DAX (Germany) | 25,401.23 | -0.69% |
| AEX (Netherlands) | 1,093.27 | -0.78% |
The board continued, ranked by change; every change reconciles against our own published closes of 9 September. The FTSE 100 and AEX are confirmed at their own exchanges after the closing auction. The DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx Europe 600 levels are vendor quotes captured at 16:06 GMT before those administrators’ dated closing rows had posted; they are provisional, reconcile against our own 9 September closes, and will be reread and amended if they differ.
| Stoxx Europe 600 sector | Change |
|---|---|
| Autos | +0.36% |
| Banks | -0.23% |
| Oil and gas | -0.26% |
| Healthcare | -0.52% |
| Technology | -1.52% |
| Basic resources | -3.79% |
Stoxx Europe 600 supersectors, ranked by change, from the 16:06 GMT capture, STOXX administered via CNBC; these are provisional vendor quotes taken before the administrator’s dated closes had settled, subject to a check the next day.
Why it matters: A rate rise usually weighs on shares, yet Europe took this one in its stride, on our reading: the declines were shallow and yields hardly moved, the signature of a decision the market had already priced. The day’s real story was underneath the index line, in the rotation out of the commodity linked sectors. Basic resources and oil and gas, the parts of the market most tied to raw material prices, were the ones that fell, the mirror image of Wednesday when energy alone had risen. The rotation came as investors also digested the cut to the 2026 oil demand growth outlook in OPEC’s monthly report, covered in our report of the same day, while the muted index and bond reaction to the rate decision is consistent with a move that had been widely anticipated.
Outlook: The near term turns on whether the ECB is done or signalling more, on our reading, with a deposit rate now at 2.50 percent and inflation its projections still put above target into 2027. For the equity market the immediate weight is less the policy rate, which looks anticipated, than the direction of commodity prices, since the sectors that moved most on Thursday were the resource names. United States consumer price data due later this week is the next external cue, shaping the rate path on the other side of the Atlantic and, through it, the tone for European shares.
Sources: European Central Bank, OPEC, Euronext, London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Boerse, SIX Swiss Exchange, Borsa Italiana, Bolsa de Madrid, Nasdaq, STOXX, CNBC, The Edge.
