German Inflation Is 2.9 Percent and 2.0 Percent Without Motor Fuel and Heating Oil
German consumer prices rose 2.9 percent in the year to August, the Federal Statistical Office said, confirming its flash estimate without revision. Excluding motor fuels and heating oil, the same index rose 2.0 percent.
The difference between those two figures is 0.9 percentage points on our calculation. Inflation was 2.3 percent in June and 2.8 percent in July, so the headline has risen 0.6 points in two months. The two measures are separately weighted rather than one being the other minus fuel, so the 0.9 point gap is a difference between them and not a contribution from fuel.
Three ways of stripping the index, three different answers
| German consumer prices, August 2026 | Annual change |
|---|---|
| Overall index | 2.9% |
| Excluding food and energy | 2.4% |
| Excluding energy | 2.2% |
| Excluding heating oil and motor fuels | 2.0% |
As published. The office publishes all four measures in the same release.
The four measures give materially different readings of German price pressure. Taking out heating oil and motor fuels alone, and leaving every other form of energy in, brings the index to 2.0 percent, nine tenths of a point below the headline.
The energy category rose 10.5 percent over the year, its largest rise in more than three years, and the office notes the last larger one was 19.1 percent in February 2023. Energy inflation was 3.4 percent in June and 8.3 percent in July, so it has roughly tripled in two months on our calculation.
Inside energy, the two halves are moving in opposite directions
| Energy prices, August 2026 | Annual change | Monthly change |
|---|---|---|
| Heating oil | 49.6% | 6.5% |
| Motor fuels | 27.7% | 3.1% |
| Household energy | -0.7% | 0.6% |
| Electricity | -5.5% | -0.2% |
As published. Natural gas including operating costs fell 2.9 percent over the year and district heating fell 1.0 percent; the office publishes no monthly figure for either.
The gap between motor fuels at 27.7 percent and household energy at negative 0.7 percent is 28.4 percentage points on our calculation. One half of the energy bill is rising very fast and the other is falling.
Within motor fuels, the office breaks out diesel at 6.4 percent on the month and premium petrol at 2.1 percent, giving no annual figures for either. It attributes the decline in electricity, gas and district heating in part to federal government measures in place since the start of the year.
Ruth Brand, the office’s president, said higher energy prices were again the primary drivers of overall inflation, and said the rise in energy prices, which she attributed primarily to the war, was particularly noticeable in motor fuel prices. The release states that price developments on the crude oil market since the war began continued to be reflected in higher prices at the pump in August.
Food is flat and services are the steady part
Food prices rose 0.1 percent over the year and fell 0.1 percent on the month. Food inflation was 0.4 percent in each of May, June and July, so August is the lowest of the four.
The composition inside food is wide. Eggs rose 15.2 percent over the year, fresh vegetables 5.2 percent and fish and seafood 4.4 percent, while edible fats and oils fell 15.3 percent, with butter down 29.9 percent, fresh fruit fell 5.6 percent and dairy fell 5.5 percent.
Services rose 2.8 percent over the year and goods rose 3.0 percent. Net rents excluding heating rose 1.9 percent, with actual rents at 2.2 percent and imputed rents at 1.8 percent. The harmonised index the European Central Bank uses also rose 2.9 percent over the year and 0.2 percent on the month, and it too confirmed the flash estimate.
Why it matters: Germany is the largest economy in the euro area and its August index arrived the same day the European Central Bank raised its three key rates by 25 basis points. The contrast between 2.9 percent at the top and 2.0 percent once two fuel lines are removed shows how unusually important those two categories have become to the German index, without the difference being a mechanical contribution from them. Services at 2.8 percent and rents at 1.9 percent are the parts a central bank can reach; heating oil at 49.6 percent is not.
Outlook: The flash estimate for September publishes on 30 September and the final figure on 13 October. The measure to watch is the one excluding heating oil and motor fuels, which is at 2.0 percent now. If it holds there while the fuel lines fall back, August will read as an energy episode. If it climbs, the pass through has begun and the headline will not return to target when fuel does.
Sources: Federal Statistical Office of Germany.
