The Speed Gap: AI’s Fastest Layers Are Growing at Triple Digit Rates, the World Economy at 3 Percent, and Trillions Are Being Repriced in Between

Report summary

The artificial intelligence economy is not one economy growing at one rate. It is a chain of parties growing at rates that differ by 2 orders of magnitude, and the distance between them has become the most consequential number in global markets. At the fast end, global semiconductor sales rose 135.1 percent year on year in July 2026 to 146.8 billion dollars, Nvidia's revenue rose 106 percent to 96.2 billion dollars in its latest quarter, and the 2 largest independent AI developers are reported to have reached annualised revenue run rates above 40 billion and 65 billion dollars. At the slow end, the IMF expects the world economy to grow 3.0 percent in 2026, the IEA expects global electricity demand to grow 3.6 percent, United States labour productivity is rising 2.2 percent a year, and the share of companies that can trace any profit contribution to AI has stayed at about 37 percent for a year. Between the 2 speeds sits the capital. Capital expenditure by 5 technology companies exceeded 400 billion dollars in 2025 and the IEA expects it to rise about 75 percent in 2026; sell side estimates cited by Reuters put the 2026 outlay of Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle at around 795 billion dollars and the 2027 figure at nearly 1.08 trillion. That spending now absorbs more than the cash 3 of the 5 buyers generate, and part of the funding has moved to the markets. In the week of 14 September the gap reached the stock exchanges.