Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries Fall to a Nine Month Low as France and Canada Cut Back and Britain Nears One Trillion Dollars

By The Edge Research Team

Foreign holdings of United States Treasury securities stood at 9,248.1 billion dollars at the end of July, down 50.4 billion from 9,298.5 billion in June, according to the Treasury International Capital data published by the United States Department of the Treasury. That is the lowest monthly reading since October 2025, when holdings were 9,230.5 billion dollars, and it is below every month in between. It is also 239.2 billion below the February 2026 peak of 9,487.3 billion, on our calculation.

The 50.4 billion dollar decline conceals a much larger reshuffle. Holdings attributed to France fell by 41.5 billion dollars and those attributed to Canada by 33.3 billion, which is 74.8 billion between two countries, or about half as much again as the entire net fall, on our calculation. The United Kingdom went the other way and added 58.4 billion dollars. Japan fell 12.8 billion, China, Mainland, 15.4 billion and Belgium 11.8 billion.

Selected large holders

US Department of the Treasury, TIC Table 5, holdings at end of period. The change column is our subtraction of the Treasury published June and July figures. This is a selection, not the full ranking: the Cayman Islands at 460.1 billion dollars and Luxembourg at 442.1 billion also sit above Canada. France and India appear because they are the month largest faller and largest riser among the named holders.

Britain month takes it to within 105.6 billion dollars of Japan, the largest holder, against a gap of 176.8 billion in June, on our calculation. That is a narrowing of 71.2 billion dollars in a single month, and it leaves the United Kingdom 1.7 billion short of one trillion dollars of Treasury holdings.

Read the country lines with the Treasury own caution

The Treasury prints a warning beneath this table and it changes how the country lines should be read. The data are collected primarily from United States based custodians and broker dealers, and securities held in overseas custody accounts may not be attributed to the actual owners, so the figures may not provide a precise accounting of individual country ownership.

That caution bears most heavily on exactly the line that moved most. London is one of the world largest custody centres, so the 58.4 billion dollar rise attributed to the United Kingdom is Britain as a booking location as well as Britain as a buyer. The same applies to Belgium, the Cayman Islands and Luxembourg, whose positions are large relative to the size of their economies. A country line in this table is where a security is held, not necessarily who owns it.

China is down for the year, and the official share is a twelve month story

Holdings attributed to China, Mainland were 618 billion dollars at the end of July, the lowest figure in the thirteen months the Treasury current table displays. A year earlier the figure was 695.6 billion, so the decline over twelve months is 77.6 billion dollars, or 11.2 percent, on our calculation.

The more consequential shift is in who is doing the holding, and it is a year long move rather than a July one. Foreign official institutions, meaning central banks and sovereign funds rather than private investors, held 3,773.1 billion dollars in July, or 40.8 percent of the total. In July 2025 they held 3,886.5 billion of a smaller 9,109.5 billion total, or 42.66 percent. Official holdings have therefore fallen 113.4 billion dollars over twelve months while the overall total rose 138.6 billion, or 1.52 percent.

The implied private component moved the other way. Stripping the official line out leaves about 5,475 billion dollars in July against roughly 5,223 billion a year earlier, an increase of 252 billion dollars, or 4.82 percent, on our calculation. Private money has been taking the slack.

July itself does not carry that story. Official holdings fell only 5 billion dollars on the month, from 3,778.1 billion, so private holdings accounted for 45.4 billion of the 50.4 billion headline decline, on our calculation, and the official share actually ticked up on the month from 40.63 percent. Within the official total, holdings of Treasury bills fell to 354.4 billion dollars from 360.6 billion while bonds and notes edged up to 3,418.8 billion from 3,417.5 billion. The official reduction was at the short end.

The Gulf holders

Saudi Arabia held 142.4 billion dollars at the end of July, effectively unchanged on the month at 0.1 billion lower, and 10.8 billion higher than a year earlier, a gain of 8.2 percent on our calculation. The United Arab Emirates held 110.1 billion, down 4.7 billion on the month but 2.4 billion higher than in July 2025.

Together the two hold 252.5 billion dollars of Treasuries, which is 2.73 percent of all foreign holdings, on our calculation. Neither moved in the direction France and Canada did.

Why it matters: these data measure who is financing the United States, and July reading says the financing base is both slightly smaller and differently composed. The headline decline is modest at half a percent of the total, and it should not be read as a retreat, because the same month saw 58.4 billion dollars added on the British line. What is harder to dismiss is the twelve month picture: official holdings down 113.4 billion dollars while private holdings rose 252 billion. Central banks and sovereign institutions are a stickier holder of Treasuries than private funds, so a Treasury market financed by a steadily smaller official proportion is one whose demand is more sensitive to price and to yield. For Gulf holders the direction is the opposite of the European one: Saudi Arabia is up 8.2 percent over twelve months and the Emirates are modestly higher, with neither participating in July selling.

Outlook: the Treasury publishes this series monthly with a two month lag, so the August figures are the next test and they will show whether the French and Canadian lines continued or whether July was a single month position change. The number to watch is not the grand total, which moves with valuation as much as with flow, but the foreign official line: if 40.8 percent keeps falling, the composition becomes the story. Britain position is the other one to follow, because a single further month at July pace would take it past one trillion dollars and into contention with Japan for the largest holding, subject to the custody caution the Treasury prints under its own table.

Sources: US Department of the Treasury, Treasury International Capital system, Table 5.

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