GCC Economy Grows 4.7% in 2025 as Non-Oil Activity Outpaces Oil

By The Edge Research Team

Gulf Cooperation Council economies’ real output reached $1,903.7 billion in 2025, the GCC Statistical Centre (GCC-Stat) said on 9 November, and non-oil activity made up $1,343.5 billion of it.

The figures come from the centre’s annual report on the bloc’s economic performance, dated September 2026 and built on preliminary data. Measured by volume or by value, the non-oil economy grew faster than oil.

Non-oil activity supplies most of the 4.7% real growth

At constant 2010 prices, real gross domestic product rose 4.7% from $1,817.5 billion in 2024. Non-oil value added grew 5.2%, from $1,277.7 billion.

That lifted the non-oil share of real value added to 70.6%, from 70.3% a year earlier.

Of the $86.2 billion added to real output, non-oil activity supplied $65.8 billion, The Edge calculates. That is 76.3% of the year’s growth.

The oil sector also grew in volume. Its real value added rose 3.8% to $560.2 billion, reflecting higher production.

Over a longer span, the report puts oil’s share of real output at 29.4% in 2025, against 40.8% in 2010.

Real non-oil value added stood at $691.7 billion in 2010 and has risen 94.2% since.

Finance and insurance grew fastest among the main sectors, up 7.0% in real terms to $129.2 billion on the back of credit growth. Construction, then accommodation and food, followed closely, and the table below carries each sector’s figures.

Manufacturing, the largest part of the non-oil economy at current prices, grew 4.6% in real terms to $217.7 billion. It accounts for 16.2% of real non-oil value added.

Real value added by sector, 2025 (constant 2010 prices)

Preliminary data. Change is against 2024. Sectors ranked by 2025 value; the six listed do not make up the whole non-oil sector.

Non-oil gains outweigh lower oil prices at current prices

At current prices, which carry the effect of oil prices, nominal GDP rose 2.1% to $2,419.3 billion. Non-oil value added rose 5.6% to $1,911.7 billion.

The oil sector’s value fell 9.1% to $507.6 billion, as lower global prices outweighed higher output. The two oil readings measure different things: volume at constant prices rose 3.8%, while value at current prices fell 9.1%.

In money terms, non-oil activity added $101.7 billion while the oil sector lost $51.1 billion. The non-oil gain was nearly twice the oil loss.

The non-oil share of value at current prices rose to 79.0% from 76.4% in 2024. Oil’s share fell to 21.0%.

That current price share is the measure behind the 79% non-oil share that GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi cited for 2025, set out here on 12 October. The nominal output of $2.4 trillion he cited is the same $2,419.3 billion, rounded.

GCC GDP and its oil and non-oil parts (in $ billions)

Preliminary data. Real figures are at constant 2010 prices. Real oil value added, not shown, rose 3.8% to $560.2 billion in 2025.

At current prices, the report says wholesale and retail trade led the non-oil gains, growing 8.9% to $239.5 billion. Real estate grew faster, up 9.7% to $143.8 billion.

Construction gained 7.7% at current prices, to $202.3 billion. Manufacturing stayed the largest sector at $309.2 billion, though its growth slowed to 0.7%.

Inflation stays low as bank credit and money supply expand

Average inflation across the six states was 1.8% in 2025, compared with 1.6% in 2024. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation slowed to 1.1%, its lowest annual level, the report says.

Price pressure was concentrated in miscellaneous goods and services, up 5.1%, and in housing, utilities and fuels, up 4.2%. The report’s baseline sees inflation at 2.3% in 2026.

Broad money grew 11.2% to $1,959 billion, alongside policy rate cuts by Gulf central banks that followed the US Federal Reserve. Commercial bank assets rose 11.9% to more than $3,947 billion.

Bank deposits grew 10.6% to $2,307.7 billion. Loans rose 12.3%, and 79.6% of them went to the private sector.

Real GDP per person rose 2.5% to $30,300. That outpaced population growth of 2.2%, the report says.

Governments keep investing as the forecasts point to a 2027 recovery

Public finances felt the oil price fall. Total public revenue fell 8.3% to $591.5 billion. Oil revenue drove the decline, dropping 12.7% to $354.4 billion.

Non-oil revenue was little changed at $237.1 billion, against $239.2 billion in 2024. It made up 40.1% of the total.

Spending rose 1.1% to $666.5 billion. Investment spending reached $91.9 billion, from $89.2 billion a year earlier.

The combined deficit widened to $75.0 billion from $14.5 billion. That equals 3.1% of nominal GDP, on The Edge’s calculation.

The United Arab Emirates was the only member state with a surplus, at $22.6 billion. Deficits elsewhere ranged from $1.2 billion to $65.6 billion.

Equity markets were weaker. The GCC composite index fell 3.8% over 2025, mainly on a 12.8% decline in the Saudi Exchange. Total market capitalisation fell 6.2% to $3.9 trillion.

In scenarios prepared in early September 2026, the centre sees a temporary slowdown in 2026, with real growth ranging from a limited contraction in its conservative scenario to slight growth in its optimistic one. Its baseline puts non-oil growth at 2.4% in 2026, against 5.2% in 2025.

For 2027, the same scenarios put growth between 3.9% and 7.2%. The baseline is 5.6%.

The International Monetary Fund’s October Regional Economic Outlook, set out here on 22 October, put Gulf growth at 4.5% for 2025. It projected a 4.8% contraction for 2026.

In The Edge’s reading, total output still rose 2.1% at current prices in a year when oil’s value fell 9.1%, which shows non-oil activity carrying Gulf growth, though the report notes that much of that activity still moves with government spending.

Figures are from the GCC Statistical Centre’s report Economic Performance Outlook for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries 2025, dated September 2026, and its news release of 9 November 2026; shares, differences and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.

Sources: GCC Statistical Centre, International Monetary Fund, The Edge.

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