Market Wrap US-Europe 6 August: Dow Slips 0.9 Percent Before Jobs Data as Oil Jumps

By The Edge Research Team

US stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors positioned for Friday’s July jobs report, with the Dow lagging while the Nasdaq held near flat, and Europe closed mostly higher, while oil surged and Treasury yields rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.85 percent, the S&P 500 slipped 0.18 percent and the Nasdaq Composite was nearly flat, per CNBC, while Brent crude jumped 3.84 percent to 82.50 dollars a barrel.

Wall Street marked time ahead of the week’s decisive data point. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.85 percent to 53,885.10, the S&P 500 slipped 0.18 percent to 7,709.96 and the Nasdaq Composite eased 0.06 percent to 26,348.35, per CNBC, as Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year up about 5 basis points to 4.668 percent ahead of the jobs report. The volatility index fell 4.17 percent to 15.15, its lowest of the week, a sign positioning rather than fear was driving the pause.

Europe closed mostly higher. The Euro Stoxx 50 gained 0.39 percent to 6,502.56 and France’s CAC 40 added 0.35 percent to 8,699.71, while Germany’s DAX was little changed at 26,140.13 and Britain’s FTSE 100 eased 0.19 percent to 10,867.89, per CNBC.

In commodities, oil surged as the energy complex clawed back a substantial part of the week’s losses. Brent crude jumped 3.84 percent to 82.50 dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate rose 2.77 percent to 77.30 dollars, per CNBC, leaving Brent within about 6 percent of its level before the OPEC+ decision on September output. Gold was little changed at 4,305.70 dollars an ounce, pausing after two days of sharp gains as yields rose.

In currencies and crypto, the dollar firmed. The euro slipped to 1.1523 and sterling to 1.3453, while the yen weakened to 158.42 per dollar, per CNBC. The Egyptian pound held at 49.64 per dollar, its strongest of the week, while Bitcoin eased 0.58 percent to about 64,476 dollars.

Further east, Thursday’s closes from our MENA-Asia wrap showed the Gulf mostly easing in a quiet retreat, with Dubai down 1.50 percent and Saudi Arabia off 0.70 percent while Oman and Abu Dhabi edged higher, and Asia mixed, led lower by South Korea’s 4.58 percent Kospi pullback, per CNBC and the regional exchanges.

Why it matters: The session sets up the week’s pivot cleanly for the region, our reading. Oil’s recovery above 82 dollars on Brent, arriving as the Gulf’s trading week closed, substantially restores the producer revenue picture that the post-OPEC+ slide had clouded, and regional markets will open Sunday with both the oil rebound and the jobs-report verdict in hand. The rise in Treasury yields ahead of the report firmed the dollar and paused the metals rally, a reminder that the falling-yield tailwind behind this week’s gold surge is data-dependent. For Egypt and Jordan, crude’s rebound trims part of the import relief of recent days, though the Egyptian pound at its strongest of the week cushions Cairo.

Outlook: Friday’s July jobs report at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, 3:30 PM Kuwait time, decides the near-term path for yields, the dollar, gold and risk appetite, our reading. A soft print would revive the falling-yield backdrop that powered the week’s metals surge and support risk assets into the close of the week, while a strong one would extend Thursday’s firmer-dollar mix and test both gold’s hold on 4,300 dollars and the equity rally’s footing. For oil, consolidation above 80 dollars on Brent would confirm the market has absorbed the OPEC+ increase. The Gulf prices all of it on Sunday.

Table US equities, 6 August close, ranked by change:

Table Europe equities, 6 August close, ranked by change:

Table MENA and Asia, 6 August closes, for reference, ranked by change:

Table Commodities, 6 August, ranked by change:

Table Currencies, rates, volatility and crypto, 6 August, ranked by percent change:

Sources: CNBC; Reuters.

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