Oman Reports 3.8% First-Half Growth to IMF Mission as UAE Opens Its Article IV Review
Oman’s economy grew 3.8% in the first half of 2026, supported by 9.7% growth in petroleum activities, the Ministry of Economy reported to an IMF mission on 4 November.
Both parts of the economy grew in the first half, and the Fund projects 4.1% growth for Oman for the full year, a figure that covers a different period from the Ministry’s first-half reading. On the same day the Central Bank of the UAE opened its own 2026 consultation with the Fund, with a mission that runs to 17 November.
Oman Reports Growth in Both Petroleum and Non-Petroleum Activities
The Ministry received the IMF delegation as part of the 2026 Article IV consultations, which the mission is conducting from 25 October to 8 November.
The Ministry reviewed the main indicators for the first half of 2026. GDP at constant prices grew 3.8%, supported by 9.7% growth in petroleum activities and 1.8% growth in non-petroleum activities. The Oman News Agency, which carried the statement, does not name the comparison period.
Oman first-half 2026 growth at constant prices (in %)
| Activity | Growth |
|---|---|
| GDP at constant prices | 3.8 |
| Petroleum activities | 9.7 |
| Non-petroleum activities | 1.8 |
Ministry of Economy indicators for the first half of 2026, reviewed with the IMF mission on 4 November 2026. The comparison period is not stated.
The Talks Cover Trade Links, Logistics and the Five-Year Plan
The meeting addressed GDP growth, petroleum and non-petroleum activity, inflation, labour market and employment developments, and the outlook for the period ahead. Both sides also discussed how geopolitical developments and regional conflicts affect oil and gas markets, foreign trade, supply chains, transport, freight and insurance costs, the industrial sector, and logistics and investment activity.
Further topics were the opportunities and challenges that regional dynamics create, national economic resilience, the competitiveness of productive and service sectors, and the transport and logistics ecosystem. The Ministry also updated the mission on the 11th Five-Year Plan, covering 2026 to 2030, its link to Oman Vision 2040, the contribution of non-petroleum sectors, investment attraction and in-country value.
The Fund’s October projections for Oman, shown in the projections table below, were set out in our 22 October report “IMF Sees Oman Growing 4.1 Percent and Egypt 5.1 Percent Ahead of a 2027 Gulf Rebound”. The Fund’s Oman page, which labels the figure a 2026 projection, shows the same 4.1% and a 3.2% projection for consumer prices.
The National Centre for Statistics and Information shows inflation of 3.2% for September and constant-price GDP of OMR 9.9 billion for the second quarter, or $25.7 billion at the Central Bank of Oman’s peg of $2.6008 per rial. The Fund’s 3.2% is a projection for 2026, so the two cover different periods.
The Centre’s second-quarter national accounts put that GDP 5.1% above the same period of 2025, with petroleum activities up 14.7%. They cover the quarter alone; the first-half rates above are the Ministry’s own figures as presented to the mission.
The UAE Opens Its Consultation With a Two-Week Mission
Khaled Mohamed Balama, Governor of the Central Bank of the UAE and the UAE Governor to the IMF, opened the 2026 Article IV consultation mission at the bank’s headquarters in Abu Dhabi on 4 November. The delegation’s visit continues until 17 November, a 14-day window counting both ends.
The opening session was attended by the bank’s assistant governors and senior officials, the head of the IMF mission and members of the delegation.
Balama said the consultations reflect the UAE’s commitment to transparency and to financial and economic stability as an active Fund member. They will focus on the macroeconomic and inflation outlook, banking sector resilience, financial infrastructure and innovation in financial services, as well as adherence to international best practices in banking supervision, risk management and anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT).
The central bank will lead technical meetings that bring the mission together with federal and local government entities and private sector representatives. They will assess the latest economic developments, review monetary and fiscal policies and evaluate the regulatory and supervisory frameworks for banking and finance, after which the mission will prepare a report on the economy, including its growth outlook.
The bank’s statement said growth is projected to reach 1.6% in 2026 and to accelerate to around 10% in 2027, driven by non-oil sector expansion, infrastructure investment and higher oil production capacity. It added that total banking sector assets have exceeded AED 5.7 trillion, which is more than $1.55 trillion at the 3.6725 dirham rate the bank publishes.
The 2027 figure repeats what the Governor said in his keynote address at the IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings in Bangkok, which the Emirates News Agency reported on 15 October and which we set out in our report “UAE Expects Growth to Accelerate to Around 10 Percent in 2027, Central Bank Governor Says”.
The Fund’s October projections table gives the UAE growth of 6.2% in 2025 and 7.7% in 2027, with a contraction of 3.9% in 2026. The statement does not name the projection behind its 2026 and 2027 figures.
Real GDP growth in the IMF’s October 2026 projections (in %)
| Economy | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oman | 2.4 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| UAE | 6.2 | -3.9 | 7.7 |
| GCC | 4.5 | -4.8 | 9.1 |
Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, October 2026 (published 22 October), projections table, year-over-year change. Oman’s 2026 projection of 4.1% is the highest among the GCC economies in the IMF projections table.
Both Countries Come Off Recent Board Reviews
The Fund’s Board concluded Oman’s previous Article IV consultation on 12 January 2026 and the UAE’s on 1 December 2025.
The summary of the Oman report said the economy had shown strong resilience in 2025, with non-hydrocarbon activities continuing to expand, inflation low and fiscal and external positions solid despite lower oil proceeds. The UAE summary said growth in 2025 was projected to outpace both the GCC and global averages, with non-oil sectors including tourism and real estate expanding and the financial system absorbing market volatility well.
Article IV missions in 2026
| Economy | Dates | Days | Last Board review |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oman | 25 Oct to 8 Nov | 15 | 12 Jan 2026 |
| UAE | 4 to 17 Nov | 14 | 1 Dec 2025 |
Mission windows as stated by both bodies on 4 November 2026; Board dates from the Fund’s country pages; days counted inclusive of both ends.
What to watch: The Oman mission is scheduled to end on 8 November 2026 and the UAE mission on 17 November 2026, after which the UAE mission prepares its report on the economy and its growth outlook.
Figures are from the Ministry of Economy’s meeting with the IMF mission as carried by the Oman News Agency on 4 November 2026, the Central Bank of the UAE’s statement of 4 November 2026, the IMF’s October 2026 Regional Economic Outlook projections table and country pages, and the NCSI portal and second-quarter national accounts; percentages and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: Ministry of Economy, Central Bank of the UAE, International Monetary Fund, National Centre for Statistics and Information, Central Bank of Oman, Oman News Agency, Emirates News Agency, The Edge.
