Qatar and the UAE Lost 43 Billion Cubic Metres of LNG Exports in 5 Months
LNG exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates fell by 43 billion cubic metres year on year between March and July, the International Energy Agency said on 15 September, a decline the agency puts at more than half of Germany’s annual gas consumption in 2025. The cause it names is shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz stemming from the war in the Middle East.
The same commentary sets out how much room the European Union is about to create for non-Russian suppliers. The bloc’s phase out regulation is expected to cut Russian pipeline gas and LNG deliveries to the EU by around 33 billion cubic metres a year between 2025 and 2028.
The outage is larger than the opening
The five month decline in Qatari and Emirati exports is 1.3 times the size of the annual space the European rule creates, on our calculation. That is what the Hormuz disruption took out of the market this year against what the phase out frees over three.
The gap was mostly filled from elsewhere. LNG production outside the Persian Gulf grew almost 16 percent, or more than 30 billion cubic metres, year on year across the same March to July window, which the agency says offset around 70 percent of the Gulf decline. About 13 billion cubic metres went uncovered, on our calculation. The growth came from new projects in North America and Africa and from better feedgas availability.
| Measure | Period | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Qatar and UAE LNG exports, year on year | March to July 2026 | Minus 43 bcm |
| LNG production outside the Persian Gulf, year on year | March to July 2026 | Plus more than 30 bcm |
| EU cut in Russian pipeline gas and LNG | A year, by 2028 | Around 33 bcm |
| EU Russian pipeline gas already removed | 2021 to 2025 | Minus 120 bcm |
Figures as published by the International Energy Agency on 15 September 2026, drawing on its quarterly Gas Market Report. The almost 16 percent growth outside the Persian Gulf corresponds to the more than 30 billion cubic metres shown.
What is left to remove is small against what has gone
Russian pipeline gas into the EU has already fallen by almost 90 percent, or 120 billion cubic metres, between 2021 and 2025. The 33 billion cubic metres the regulation still removes covers pipeline gas and LNG together, so it is not a like for like slice of that 120, but it is a fraction of it on any reading: the hardest part of Europe’s separation from Russian gas is behind it, not ahead.
The remaining exposure is concentrated. Russian pipeline gas was around 60 percent of Central and Eastern Europe’s primary gas supply in 2021. Imports there fell from 55 billion cubic metres in 2021 to just over 15 billion in 2025, a drop of more than 70 percent, on our calculation, and they still meet around 20 percent of regional demand. Northwest Europe and Italy have effectively eliminated Russian pipeline gas; several Central and Eastern European markets have not.
Across the EU as a whole the composition of supply has changed more than the volume. The Russian share of demand fell from almost 40 percent in 2021 to around 10 percent in 2025, while LNG’s share rose from less than 20 percent to almost 45 percent. That is the exposure trade Europe made: less Russia, more global market.
Why it matters: The 43 billion cubic metre decline measures a disruption the agency attributes to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and about 13 billion of it went unreplaced. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are the two Gulf states this measures directly. Europe’s removal of Russian gas frees around 33 billion cubic metres a year for other suppliers, and the agency frames the beneficiary as transatlantic LNG into Central and Eastern Europe rather than Gulf cargoes.
Outlook: Imports of Russian LNG into the EU halt completely on 1 January 2027 and the remaining pipeline gas ends no later than 1 November 2027, with the piped ban set for 30 September 2027 and extendable to meet storage targets. Short term contracts are already prohibited, for LNG since 25 April and for piped gas since 17 June. The agency offers no forecast for when Qatari and Emirati volumes recover, but it does project more than 350 billion cubic metres a year of new LNG export capacity worldwide by the early 2030s on current project plans, with the United States and Qatar together accounting for more than 70 percent of it.
Sources: International Energy Agency.
