Report: Two Speeds in One Economy, Unemployment at 3.0 Percent, Net Foreign Direct Investment of 19.1 Billion Riyals and a Non-Oil Economy That Kept Growing Through Saudi Arabia’s Second Quarter of 2026
Report page: summary and downloads →
Saudi Arabia ended the second quarter of 2026 with unemployment at 3.0 percent, a fourteenth consecutive quarter of net foreign direct investment inflows at 19.1 billion riyals, and a non-oil economy that grew 0.9 percent, according to a new report from The Edge drawing on six General Authority for Statistics releases published between 8 and 30 September. The report, Two Speeds in One Economy, finds that the shock to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was absorbed mainly by the oil sector and the budget, while the rest of the economy kept working through it.
The quarter in six numbers
| Indicator | Latest | Reference |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate | 3.0% | 3.2% a year earlier |
| Unemployment, Saudi nationals | 6.5% | 6.8% a year earlier |
| Net FDI inflows | 19.1bn riyals | 14th straight quarter of net inflows |
| Non-oil activities, annual growth | 0.9% | Growth in each of the last 10 quarters |
| Budget deficit | 34.3bn riyals | 125.7bn riyals in Q1 |
| Consumer inflation, August | 1.8% | 4th consecutive month at that rate |
From the General Authority for Statistics and the Ministry of Finance releases analysed in the report.
Where the adjustment landed
Real GDP was 4.7 percent smaller than a year earlier, and the report’s contribution arithmetic shows where that came from: oil activities subtracted 5.40 percentage points from annual growth, non-oil activities added 0.55, government activities added 0.07 and net taxes on products added 0.07. The fiscal account carried the cost, and far less of it in the second quarter than in the first: the deficit of 34.3 billion riyals was a little more than a quarter of the first quarter’s 125.7 billion and equal to 10.1 percent of the quarter’s revenue of 338.8 billion. Non-oil revenue of 153.7 billion riyals was 45.4 percent of the total. Both deficits were financed by borrowing, the government reserve of 399.1 billion riyals was untouched, and public debt closed the half year at 1,685.0 billion riyals, 62.9 percent of it domestic.
2027 as the recovery year
The Ministry of Finance’s pre-budget statement of 30 September estimates 2026 growth at minus 3.6 percent, with non-oil activities up about 3.2 percent, and projects 12.8 percent growth in 2027. S&P Global Ratings, which affirmed the sovereign at A plus with a stable outlook on 11 September, puts growth at minus 0.9 percent in 2026 and 8.2 percent in 2027, and the International Monetary Fund’s July Article IV consultation puts it at 1.7 percent and 5.5 percent. The three sets of projections span 5.3 percentage points on 2026 and 7.3 points on 2027, and all three place the recovery in 2027.
Why it matters: The report shows headline unemployment improving, net foreign direct investment inflows continuing for a fourteenth consecutive quarter and the non-oil economy growing through the quarter of the disruption, with the budget absorbing the cost through borrowing while the 399.1 billion riyal government reserve stayed intact.
Outlook: The report sets out five markers to watch, led by oil volumes, the non-oil growth rate and the deficit path, with all three sets of projections placing the recovery in 2027.
Sources: General Authority for Statistics, Ministry of Finance, S&P Global Ratings, International Monetary Fund, The Edge.
Download the full report
⬇ Download the report in English
⬇ تحميل التقرير بالعربية
