Commodities Wrap 1 October: Brent Jumps 4.40 Percent as December Takes the Front Month and Natural Gas Falls 2.41 Percent
The barrel changed series and surged on Thursday. Brent crude jumped 4.40 percent to 102.34 dollars a barrel in its first session with the December 2026 contract as the front month, the strongest row on our commodities board, with the change measured against the December series’ own Wednesday settlement of 98.03 dollars, and RBOB gasoline rose 4.25 percent to 3.3991 dollars a gallon on its November contract’s first day at the front of the strip. WTI, still on its November series, added 2.76 percent to 92.92 dollars. The distillate split the other way, ULSD heating oil 1.31 percent lower in its own first November session, and natural gas fell 2.41 percent to 2.953 dollars a million Btu, the board’s deepest row. Beyond the barrel, gold moved back above the 4,200 dollar line at 4,206.80 dollars an ounce, silver led the metals 1.10 percent higher at 61.235, and the dollar firmed, the index up 0.61 percent with the euro 0.80 percent lower.
Crude rises hard as the Brent row moves to its December series
The November Brent contract retired at Wednesday’s close, per the exchange’s expiry calendar as disclosed in our 29 and 30 September wraps, and Thursday’s board shows what the change of series looks like: the published Brent level moved from Wednesday’s 103.50 dollars on the November contract to 102.34 on the December one, a lower number on the page, while the row itself rose 4.40 percent against the December series’ own Wednesday settlement of 98.03 dollars, and the two levels are not comparable across the roll. The gasoline and heating oil rows made the same switch, their October contracts having traded their final session on Wednesday per the exchange’s product calendars as disclosed in our 30 September wrap, and the November codes showed at the exchange’s own product boards in session, RBX6 for gasoline and HOX6 for the distillate. On their own November references the two went opposite ways, RBOB 4.25 percent higher at 3.3991 dollars a gallon against a 3.2605 dollar reference, ULSD 1.31 percent lower at 4.6266 against 4.6881. WTI, unchanged in series, rose 2.76 percent to 92.92 dollars a barrel against Wednesday’s 90.42 settlement, and natural gas, also still on its November contract, fell 2.41 percent to 2.953 dollars a million Btu.
Gold back above 4,200 as sugar leads agriculture on a new contract
The metals tilted higher around a firmer dollar. Silver rose 1.10 percent to 61.235 dollars an ounce to lead the table, gold added 0.48 percent to 4,206.80, back above the 4,200 dollar line it settled beneath on Wednesday, and platinum edged 0.39 percent higher at 1,725.60, while copper eased 0.72 percent and palladium fell 1.89 percent to 1,189.50, the table’s deepest row. In agriculture the sugar row now shows the March 2027 contract at the front of the strip, and against that series’ own Wednesday reference of 18.61 cents it rose 1.88 percent to 18.96 to lead the table, a level not comparable to Wednesday’s published October figure. Cocoa added 1.51 percent and wheat 0.89, soybeans eased 0.75 percent and cotton 0.93, and the financial rows leaned the dollar’s way: the US Dollar Index rose 0.61 percent to 102.071, the euro fell 0.80 percent and sterling 0.55, the yen eased 0.43 percent to 158.06 to the dollar, bitcoin added 1.25 percent to 84,728.08 dollars, and the Cboe Volatility Index sat near flat at 16.30 with the United States cash market open.
Energy
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a barrel | $102.34 | +4.40% |
| RBOB Gasoline, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a gallon | $3.3991 | +4.25% |
| WTI Crude, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a barrel | $92.92 | +2.76% |
| ULSD Heating Oil, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a gallon | $4.6266 | -1.31% |
| Natural Gas, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a million Btu | $2.953 | -2.41% |
Evening levels as of 19:18 GMT on Thursday 1 October 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s settlements as carried in the price feed; session readings, not the official settlements. Contract months as displayed in the feed. The Brent row is the December 2026 contract, the front month since the November contract’s Wednesday expiry per the exchange’s calendar as disclosed in our 29 and 30 September wraps, measured against the December series’ own Wednesday settlement of 98.03 dollars and not comparable to Wednesday’s published November level of 103.50. The RBOB and ULSD rows trade their first session on the November 2026 contracts after the October contracts’ final Wednesday session per the exchange’s product calendars as disclosed in our 30 September wrap, each measured against its own November reference, 3.2605 and 4.6881 dollars, with the November codes shown at the exchange’s own product boards in session.
Metals
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Silver, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | $61.235 | +1.10% |
| Gold, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | $4,206.80 | +0.48% |
| Platinum, NYMEX (Jan’27), dollars an ounce | $1,725.60 | +0.39% |
| Copper, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars a pound | $6.574 | -0.72% |
| Palladium, NYMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | $1,189.50 | -1.89% |
Evening levels as of 19:18 GMT on Thursday 1 October 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s settlements as carried in the price feed; session readings, not the official settlements. Contract months as displayed in the feed.
Agriculture
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Sugar, ICE (Mar’27), cents a pound | 18.96 | +1.88% |
| Cocoa, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a metric ton | 5,448.00 | +1.51% |
| Wheat, CBOT (Dec’26), cents a bushel | 681.75 | +0.89% |
| Soybeans, CBOT (Nov’26), cents a bushel | 1,283.25 | -0.75% |
| Cotton, ICE (Dec’26), cents a pound | 77.79 | -0.93% |
Evening levels as of 19:18 GMT on Thursday 1 October 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s reference levels as carried in the price feed; session readings, not the official settlements. Contract months as displayed in the feed. Coffee (Dec’26, 289.25 cents a pound, down 0.50 percent) and corn (Dec’26, 502.00 cents a bushel, up 0.25 percent) are omitted as the board’s smallest absolute movers. The sugar row is the March 2027 contract, now at the front of the strip as displayed in the feed, measured against the March series’ own Wednesday reference of 18.61 cents and not comparable to Wednesday’s published October figure.
Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin, dollars | 84,728.08 | +1.25% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 102.071 | +0.61% |
| Dollar/Yen | 158.06 | +0.43% |
| Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) | 16.30 | -0.24% |
| Sterling/Dollar | 1.3192 | -0.55% |
| Euro/Dollar | 1.1237 | -0.80% |
Quotes on the same 19:18 GMT basis on Thursday 1 October 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s reference levels as carried in the price feed, with the VIX row the session’s level with the United States cash market open.
Why it matters: Thursday’s largest percentage move was genuine on the December Brent contract: it rose 4.40 percent from its own Wednesday settlement of 98.03 dollars. The contract roll nevertheless changes the level readers see from one wrap to the next: Wednesday’s published front month was the expiring November contract at 103.50 dollars, while Thursday’s is December at 102.34, so the headline price appears lower across the two wraps even though December itself rose sharply. At Wednesday’s 18:55 GMT levels the gap between the two series was 5.24 dollars, as disclosed in our 30 September wrap, and on the written settlements it closed Wednesday at 5.47. The product end split sharply on Thursday after both fuels had risen on Wednesday, gasoline up 4.25 percent on its new contract while the distillate fell 1.31 percent on its, and away from the barrel the session read as a firm dollar day, the index up 0.61 percent and the euro down 0.80, with gold back above the 4,200 dollar line all the same.
Outlook: Tonight’s United States wrap reads the written settlements for the session, and tomorrow’s board measures against them on the same contract series as today’s. The week’s remaining data test is Friday’s September employment report, as carried in our Week Ahead of 27 September to 3 October.
Sources: CNBC, CME Group, The Edge.
