IMF Says Egypt’s Next Reviews Could Unlock About 2.3 Billion Dollars in Fourth Quarter
The International Monetary Fund envisages completing the final review of Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) together with the third review of its Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) in the fourth quarter of 2026, which would make about 2.3 billion dollars available to Egypt, Julie Kozack, Director of its Communications Department, said at a press briefing on 1 October. The EFF arrangement is set to expire on 15 December.
From 7.3 billion dollars to about 9.6 billion
The Executive Board completed the seventh EFF review and second RSF review, as announced on 30 July, releasing about 1.5 billion dollars under the EFF and about 272 million dollars under the RSF and bringing total purchases and disbursements under the two arrangements to about 7.3 billion dollars. On our calculation, the fourth quarter reviews would lift that total to about 9.6 billion dollars, with the last tranche accounting for about 24 percent of it.
Financing for Egypt under the EFF and RSF
| Stage | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Disbursed through the 7th EFF and 2nd RSF reviews | about $7.3 billion | 30 July release |
| Of which released at those reviews | about $1.8 billion | 30 July release and 1 October briefing |
| Final EFF and 3rd RSF reviews, Q4 2026 | about $2.3 billion | 1 October briefing |
| Total on completion | about $9.6 billion | our calculation |
The 1.8 billion dollars released at the July reviews equals SDR 1.11 billion under the EFF and SDR 200 million under the RSF; the 7.3 billion dollar total equals about SDR 5.4 billion.
The economy enters the final EFF review in a stronger position
The Board’s July assessment found Egypt facing the war in the Middle East “in a stronger macroeconomic position” than in earlier episodes of external stress. Real GDP grew 5 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 2025/26, bringing growth over the first nine months to 5.2 percent, and gross international reserves reached 119 percent of the Fund’s reserve adequacy metric by end-June. The primary surplus is projected to rise from 4.8 percent of GDP in fiscal 2025/26 to 5 percent in 2026/27, and gross financing needs fell by 5 percent of GDP in fiscal 2025/26.
The private sector agenda
Kozack said reducing the state’s footprint and creating space for the private sector has been a key objective of the programme, and that its advice is more decisive implementation of the reforms that support private sector-led growth, which it sees as the engine of job creation. The priorities she listed are accelerating divestment, implementing the state ownership policy, levelling the playing field between private and state-owned companies, strengthening governance in state-owned enterprises, and broader reforms to the business climate and competition.
Why it matters: Completing the fourth quarter reviews would bring financing made available under the two arrangements to about 9.6 billion dollars, on our calculation, with reserves at 119 percent of the adequacy metric and the primary surplus set to widen to 5 percent of GDP, giving Egypt a firmer base as the programme ends.
Outlook: The next step is a staff mission, for which a date is yet to be announced, ahead of the final EFF review and third RSF review envisaged together in the fourth quarter.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, The Edge.
