The Week Ahead 4 to 10 October: OPEC+ Meets, Fed Minutes Land and Mainland China Reopens
Oil policy opens the week and monetary policy fills the rest of it. On Sunday the seven OPEC+ countries that met on 6 September, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, meet again, and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee holds its 68th meeting the same day. India’s Monetary Policy Committee then meets from Monday to Wednesday, the Federal Reserve publishes the minutes of its September rate rise on Wednesday, the euro area’s central bank publishes the account of its own September increase on Thursday, and mainland China’s markets reopen the same Thursday after the National Day closure. The sequence matters because those minutes describe a meeting held before the September payrolls report showed only 29,000 jobs added, as published in our report of 2 October.
The United States
The central bank’s own calendar puts the minutes of the 15 and 16 September meeting on Wednesday 7 October, the meeting at which the Committee raised the target range unanimously by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, as published in our Week Ahead of 25 September. Its next meeting is on 27 and 28 October. On our reading the minutes now land against a different labour market from the one the Committee saw: nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 in September with unemployment at 4.2 percent, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000, as published in our report of 2 October.
Monday’s ISM services report for September is the first fresh read. In August the services index stood at 55.4 percent, with business activity at 61.7 and new orders at 60.9, but employment sat at 47.8, below the 50 line, and the prices index rose to 72.6 from 70.3 in July, the fifth reading above 70 in six months by the institute’s own count. On our reading that leaves the services sector expanding on orders while shedding staff and paying more, and September’s 29,000 payrolls gain fits the hiring side of that mix. The Census Bureau’s calendar adds the August trade report on Tuesday and August wholesale trade on Thursday, and the central bank’s calendar has August consumer credit on Wednesday, an hour after the minutes. For the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, on our reading, the week’s question is how far the minutes’ account of a hike fits a softer hiring picture.
Asia
India holds a policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meets from 5 to 7 October, its schedule set in the August resolution, which left the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent on a unanimous vote with the standing deposit facility at 5.00 percent. The Nifty 50 goes into the meeting after the Gandhi Jayanti holiday shut India’s market on Friday, as published in our Asia Market Wrap of 2 October.
Mainland China returns on Thursday 8 October after the National Day closure that began on 1 October, as published in our Week Ahead of 25 September. On our reading the Shanghai and Shenzhen boards will price several days of global news at once, Sunday’s oil meetings, India’s meeting and Wednesday’s minutes among them. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s release schedule dates its October Regional Economic Report to Thursday. Australia enters the week after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60 percent on 29 September, its fourth increase of 2026, as published in our report of 29 September, so the ASX 200 trades the first full week of the higher rate.
Europe
The European Central Bank’s weekly schedule dates the account of its 9 and 10 September meeting, held in Berlin, to Thursday. At that meeting the Governing Council raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, and its staff projections put headline inflation at an average of 3.0 percent in 2026, 2.5 percent in 2027 and 2.1 percent in 2028. The account arrives after the euro area’s flash September inflation estimate of 3.8 percent, as published in our report of 2 October, on our calculation already above the 2026 average the staff projected.
The data run through industry. Eurostat’s calendar has August industrial producer prices for the domestic market on Monday and August retail trade on Tuesday, and Destatis dates German August manufacturing orders and turnover to Tuesday, the production index to Wednesday and foreign trade to Thursday, so the DAX gets three consecutive readings that run from orders to output to exports.
The Middle East
The region’s week starts on Sunday with oil. At their 6 September meeting the seven countries kept their September required production unchanged for October and set 4 October for their next meeting, and the organisation’s statement of 2 August on the 67th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting scheduled the 68th for the same day. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman sit in the seven country group, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also sit on the monitoring committee, so on our reading the Tadawul, Boursa Kuwait and the Muscat board take the first signal of the week directly from Sunday’s meetings, and the other Gulf markets through the barrel.
Egypt enters the week with its policy rates steady and inflation easing. The Central Bank of Egypt held its overnight deposit and lending rates at 19.00 and 20.00 percent on 24 September, its fifth straight hold, with inflation easing to 14.5 percent, and its next meeting is scheduled for 29 October, as published in our report of 24 September. On our reading, Wednesday’s minutes are the week’s main external rates signal for the Gulf and for Egypt’s financing costs.
The week’s confirmed dates
| Date | Event | Source of the date |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday 4 October | Meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries | OPEC |
| Sunday 4 October | 68th Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting | OPEC |
| Monday 5 October | ISM services report, September, United States | Institute for Supply Management |
| Monday 5 October | Monetary Policy Committee meeting opens, India, to 7 October | Reserve Bank of India |
| Monday 5 October | Industrial producer prices, domestic market, August, euro area | Eurostat |
| Tuesday 6 October | International trade in goods and services, August, United States | US Census Bureau |
| Tuesday 6 October | Manufacturing new orders and turnover, August, Germany | Destatis |
| Tuesday 6 October | Retail trade, August, euro area | Eurostat |
| Wednesday 7 October | Minutes of the 15 and 16 September FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve |
| Wednesday 7 October | Consumer credit, August, United States | Federal Reserve |
| Wednesday 7 October | Production index, August, Germany | Destatis |
| Thursday 8 October | Account of the 9 and 10 September monetary policy meeting | European Central Bank |
| Thursday 8 October | Foreign trade, August, Germany | Destatis |
| Thursday 8 October | Regional Economic Report, October, Japan | Bank of Japan |
| Thursday 8 October | Wholesale trade, August, United States | US Census Bureau |
| Thursday 8 October | Mainland China markets reopen after National Day | Shanghai Stock Exchange |
The mainland China reopening date is from the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s holiday notice, as published in our Week Ahead of 25 September.
Why it matters: The week puts two central banks’ accounts of September rate rises next to evidence that has moved since. The minutes describe a hike agreed before the September payrolls report showed a gain of 29,000, and the ECB account describes a meeting whose 2026 inflation projection of 3.0 percent sits below the 3.8 percent flash estimate for September. On our reading the minutes and the account matter less for what was decided than for how much weight officials gave to the risks now showing in the data, labour in the United States and inflation in the euro area. For the Gulf, Sunday’s OPEC+ meetings come first, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman at the table, and the rates signal follows on Wednesday.
Outlook: On our reading, the week turns on how the two accounts weigh the data that arrived after them: a Fed record that dwells on hiring would put more weight on the 27 and 28 October meeting, while a euro area account that dwells on inflation running above the 3.0 percent 2026 projection would keep the focus on the gap between projection and outturn. Thursday carries the most items on our count, with mainland China pricing the news of its 7 day closure in one session, and Egypt’s rate setters meet on 29 October, the day after the Fed’s meeting ends.
Sources: OPEC, Federal Reserve, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply Management, US Census Bureau, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, Shanghai Stock Exchange, European Central Bank, Eurostat, Destatis, Central Bank of Egypt, The Edge.
