Egypt’s Housing Inflation Eases to 29.6 Percent as 6 of 12 Price Groups Slow in September

By The Edge Research Team

Annual inflation in Egypt’s housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel group eased to 29.6 percent in September from 33.0 percent in August, according to figures published on 10 October by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). On our count, it was the largest improvement among the 12 groups in the consumer price index, and 6 of the 12 recorded slower annual inflation than in August, while 2 were unchanged and 4 were faster. The national annual rate stood at 12.8 percent, less than a third of the September 2023 peak of 40.3 percent, on our calculation.

Housing Leads the Slowdown as Transport and Dining Also Ease

The 3.4 percentage point slowdown in housing and utilities was more than twice the 1.4 point acceleration in food, the biggest move in the other direction, on our calculation. Actual rents were 27.5 percent higher than a year earlier, against 28.0 percent in August, and housing maintenance and repair slowed to 11.6 percent from 12.1 percent. On our reading, most of the improvement is a base effect. In September 2025 the group’s prices rose 3.4 percent in a single month; this September they rose 0.8 percent. Rolling August’s 33.0 percent forward on those 2 monthly moves gives 29.7 percent, on our calculation, within rounding of the published 29.6 percent.

Transport slowed to 21.3 percent from 21.7 percent, with transport services at 24.4 percent against 24.9 percent and vehicle purchases at 11.2 percent against 11.7 percent. Restaurants and hotels eased to 12.8 percent from 13.4 percent, with ready meals moving by the same margin. Miscellaneous goods and services came in a full point lower at 10.8 percent, helped by personal care at 12.9 percent against 13.8 percent.

6 of Egypt’s 12 Price Groups Slowed in September

Annual rates for the whole country as published in the August and September 2026 releases; the change in percentage points is our calculation.

9 Non-Food Groups Rise 1.2 Percent or Less in the Month

Of the 10 groups with a monthly change in the release, the 9 outside food rose 1.2 percent or less in September. Transport and tobacco each rose 0.1 percent, restaurants and hotels 0.3 percent, health care and culture 0.4 percent each, miscellaneous goods 0.7 percent, and clothing and housing 0.8 percent each. Furniture and household equipment, at 1.2 percent, was the highest of them.

The national annual rate edged up to 12.8 percent from 12.7 percent in August, and the index rose 1.5 percent in the month to 294.2 points. Food and beverages, up 3.2 percent in the month, was the only listed group to rise faster than the index, as vegetables jumped 15.1 percent, fruit 2.6 percent and meat and poultry 2.5 percent. Annual food inflation quickened to 7.9 percent from 6.5 percent, with vegetables 30.9 percent dearer than a year earlier. Dairy, cheese and eggs were 1.3 percent cheaper than in September 2025, and medical products and equipment 1.3 percent cheaper.

September’s 1.5 percent monthly rise is the same as September 2025’s, which, on our reading, is why the annual rate barely moved. The mix inside it changed: food rose faster than a year ago, while housing, transport and dining rose more slowly.

Housing and Transport Rose More Slowly This September Than Last

Monthly changes for the whole country as published in the September 2025 and September 2026 releases.

Annual Rate Less Than a Third of the 2023 Peak

At 12.8 percent, the national rate is 27.5 percentage points below the September 2023 peak of 40.3 percent and less than half the 26.0 percent of September 2024, on our calculation. It has stayed between 10.1 percent and 13.5 percent in every month of 2026, and it sits 0.7 points below March’s high for the year. On our calculation, the 9-month average for 2026 is 12.5 percent, and the third-quarter average of 12.8 percent compares with 12.9 percent in the second quarter: a stable path.

On our calculation, most of this year’s rise came early. Prices climbed 7.6 percent between December 2025 and March 2026, including monthly rises of 2.7 percent in February and 3.3 percent in March, out of 11.4 percent over the first 9 months of 2026. In the 6 months since March they have risen 3.4 percent, and since May 0.8 percent, a pace of 2.3 percent a year that takes in a 0.9 percent dip in June.

Egypt’s Price Index Has Risen 0.8 Percent Since May

Index for the whole country on a 2018/2019 base, as printed in each monthly release; annual rates from the agency’s published national series, with September 2026 from the September release.

The 10 October release gives national figures. Urban inflation was above the national rate in August, at 14.5 percent against 12.7 percent, a gap of 1.8 points on our calculation, with rural inflation at 10.9 percent. The August urban figure is the same 14.5 percent the central bank gives as its headline rate.

Egypt’s Inflation Has Eased in All 3 Series Since the 2023 Peak

Annual rates from the agency’s urban, rural and national series on a 2018/2019 base, with the September 2026 national rate from the September release; September 2023 is the peak of all three series since 2019.

Deposit Rate Sits 6.2 Points Above the National Rate

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its overnight deposit rate at 19.00 percent and its overnight lending rate at 20.00 percent on 24 September, with the main operation and discount rates at 19.50 percent. Those levels have applied since 15 February, after a 100 basis point cut on 12 February. The deposit rate sits 6.2 percentage points above the national annual rate, 4.5 points above the bank’s own August headline of 14.5 percent and 4.1 points above August core inflation of 14.9 percent, on our calculation.

The committee said recent inflation developments “turned out more favorable than expected” and revised its inflation forecast down. It projects headline inflation to stabilize on average in the third quarter of 2026, then slow gradually toward its target of 7 percent, plus or minus 2 points, in the second half of 2027. It described the balance of risks as tilted to the upside. On our reading, the national series, at a quarterly average of 12.8 percent in July to September, is consistent with that projection, although the bank’s forecast refers to its own headline measure.

Why it matters: The groups that slowed in September cover everyday costs: housing, transport and eating out, with actual rents among the components that eased. Food’s 3.2 percent monthly rise came with a 15.1 percent jump in vegetable prices, which can swing sharply from one month to the next, as their 7.0 percent fall in August showed. The deposit rate stands 6.2 points above the national rate, on our calculation, and the central bank projected inflation would stabilize on average in the third quarter.

Outlook: The Monetary Policy Committee meets next on 29 October, with the Central Bank of Egypt’s September headline and core readings to follow. The base is favorable for October: prices rose 1.3 percent in October 2025, so any monthly increase below 1.3 percent this October would bring the annual rate down from September’s level, on our calculation from the published index levels. A calmer month for vegetables would let the slowdown already visible in housing, transport and dining carry through to the national rate.

Sources: CAPMAS, Central Bank of Egypt, The Edge.

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