German Inflation Hits 3.3 Percent, Highest Since December 2023, as Energy Jumps 14.9 Percent
Germany’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.3 percent in September 2026 from 2.9 percent in August, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) confirmed on 13 October, leaving its flash estimate unchanged, as energy prices climbed 14.9 percent on the year. Energy accounted for 1.3 percentage points of the rate, or 39 percent of it, on our calculation from the published index levels and weights, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed at 2.4 percent for a third straight month.
Heating Oil and Fuels Carry the Rise
Consumer prices rose 0.6 percent from August, and the harmonised index, the key measure of price stability in European monetary policy, showed the same two figures, 3.3 percent on the year and 0.6 percent on the month. Ruth Brand, the office’s President, said the September rate was “the highest level recorded since December 2023”, when the published series stood at 3.7 percent.
The energy rate has now accelerated for three months running, from 3.4 percent in June to 8.3 percent in July, 10.5 percent in August and 14.9 percent in September, the largest annual increase since February 2023, when energy prices were 19.1 percent higher on the year. Motor fuels cost 37.1 percent more than a year earlier, up from 27.7 percent in August, and heating oil 74.9 percent more, up from 49.6 percent. Firewood, wood pellets and other solid fuels rose 15.6 percent. The pass-through of higher crude oil prices showed in both producer and consumer prices, the release said. Grid energy went the other way: electricity was 5.5 percent cheaper than a year earlier, natural gas excluding operating costs 2.8 percent cheaper and district heating 1.0 percent cheaper, declines the office attributed in part to Federal Government measures in force since the start of the year.
Heating oil and motor fuels together carry a weight of 32.16 per thousand, 3.2 percent of the basket, yet their combined index rose 39.8 percent and added 1.4 points to the annual rate, on our calculation. That is more than the 1.3 points energy contributed as a whole, because the rest of household energy, where cheaper electricity, gas and district heating outweighed dearer solid fuels, took 0.16 points back. The official cross-checks tell the same story: inflation excluding energy was 2.1 percent, 1.2 points below the headline, and excluding heating oil and motor fuels it was 1.8 percent, 1.5 points below.
Contributions to Germany’s 3.3 percent annual rate, September 2026
| Component | Weight (per 1,000) | Annual change | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excluding food and energy | 821.41 | 2.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Energy | 73.90 | 14.9% | 1.3 pts |
| of which heating oil and fuels | 32.16 | 39.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Food | 104.69 | 0.4% | 0.04 pts |
Weights, index levels and annual changes from the consumer price index, 2020=100. Contributions are our calculation: weight times the change in each sub-index from September 2025 to September 2026, divided by the overall index of September 2025 (122.6). Before rounding, the three main components sum to 3.26 points, matching the overall index change from 122.6 to 126.6. The heating oil and fuels row is part of energy and is not added to the total.
On the month, energy rose 3.8 percent, led by heating oil at 18.5 percent and motor fuels at 6.9 percent, with diesel up 7.5 percent and super grade petrol 6.7 percent. That energy move accounted for 0.35 points, or 55 percent, of the monthly rise in the overall index, which was 0.64 percent on the published index levels of 125.8 and 126.6, on our calculation. Clothing rose 5.6 percent on the month for seasonal reasons, while international flights fell 7.3 percent and package holidays abroad 4.2 percent.
The Path Through 2026
The year began with inflation at 2.1 percent in January and 1.9 percent in February, the low point of 2026, when energy prices were still below their year earlier level. In March energy swung from a 1.9 percent decline to a 7.2 percent rise and the headline rate jumped to 2.7 percent.
Core inflation barely moved through the year, staying between 2.3 and 2.5 percent in every month. The headline rate ran below core in January, February and June, and above it in every other month. The gap of 0.9 points in September is the widest of 2026, on our reading of the monthly series.
Germany’s inflation rate by month, September 2025 and 2026
| Month | Consumer prices | Excluding food and energy | Energy |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 2025 | 2.4% | 2.8% | -0.7% |
| January | 2.1% | 2.5% | -1.7% |
| February | 1.9% | 2.5% | -1.9% |
| March | 2.7% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| April | 2.9% | 2.3% | 10.1% |
| May | 2.6% | 2.5% | 6.6% |
| June | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% |
| July | 2.8% | 2.4% | 8.3% |
| August | 2.9% | 2.4% | 10.5% |
| September | 3.3% | 2.4% | 14.9% |
Change on the same month a year earlier, consumer price index. Months without a year are 2026.
Over the first nine months the average price level was 2.6 percent above the same period of 2025, on our calculation, against an annual average rate of 2.2 percent for the whole of 2025. Since December 2025 the overall index has risen 3.2 percent in nine months, while the energy index has gained 15.3 percent, on our calculation.
On our calculation, the motor fuel index fell 12.6 percent from 173.3 in April to 151.5 in June, over two months in which a fuel tax rebate applied from 1 May to 30 June, and heating oil fell 16.1 percent over the same two months, from 286.5 to 240.5. Motor fuels then rose 11.2 percent to 168.5 in July and stood at 185.6 in September, 22.5 percent above the June level, while heating oil was 69.0 percent above its February level, on our calculation. A renewed cut in energy tax, particularly on motor fuels, took effect on 1 October, so September’s figures do not yet show it.
Energy price indices, September 2025 and September 2026
| Item | September 2025 | September 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil | 184.7 | 323.0 | 74.9% |
| Motor fuels | 135.4 | 185.6 | 37.1% |
| Natural gas, excluding operating costs | 191.6 | 186.3 | -2.8% |
| Electricity | 124.7 | 117.8 | -5.5% |
| Energy, total | 142.0 | 163.2 | 14.9% |
Index 2020=100. Energy covers household energy and motor fuels.
Goods Overtake Services as Food Stays Subdued
Goods prices rose 3.8 percent on the year, against 1.4 percent in September 2025, while services rose 2.7 percent, against 3.4 percent a year earlier. Services inflation is now at its lowest since at least the start of 2023 in the published monthly series, and goods have outpaced services by 1.1 points, the widest margin since August 2023, on our reading. Goods ran ahead of services in every month of 2023 except October and November, then in no month at all from January 2024 to March 2026; since then they have led in April, August and September.
Within goods, non durable consumer goods rose 5.4 percent, while durables rose 1.0 percent. Information processing equipment cost 9.2 percent more and tobacco products 5.6 percent more; coffee, tea and cocoa fell 3.3 percent and household appliances 2.5 percent. The transport division, which carries motor fuels and weighs 138.22 per thousand, rose 10.8 percent on the year, up from 2.2 percent in January.
In services, social protection services rose 6.3 percent, vehicle maintenance and repair 4.7 percent and hairdressing and other personal care 4.3 percent. Net rents exclusive of heating, which weigh 172.43 per thousand, rose 1.9 percent; within them actual rents rose 2.3 percent and imputed rents 1.8 percent. Telecommunications rose 0.2 percent.
Food prices rose 0.4 percent on the year, after 0.1 percent in August and 2.1 percent in September 2025, and contributed less than 0.1 point to the headline rate, on our calculation. Eggs rose 15.2 percent and fresh vegetables 12.0 percent, while edible fats and oils fell 15.0 percent, butter 29.5 percent, dairy products 5.5 percent and fresh fruit 4.9 percent.
Why it matters: September’s rise is primarily an energy story. Core inflation has stayed between 2.3 and 2.5 percent all year, and food is close to flat, so the jump from 2.9 to 3.3 percent came mainly from fuel and heating oil prices that households see at the pump and in the tank. The harmonised rate also stands at 3.3 percent. With services at their slowest since at least 2023, price pressure in services is easing even as the headline rate rises.
Outlook: The office publishes its flash estimate for October on 30 October, the first reading to include the renewed fuel tax cut from 1 October, and producer prices for September on 20 October. In October 2025 the index rose 0.3 percent to 123.0. Against that base, an October index unchanged at September’s 126.6 would give an annual rate of 2.9 percent, and a rate of 3.3 percent would need an index of at least 127.0, a rise of 0.3 percent on the month, on our calculation from the published index levels.
Sources: Destatis, The Edge.
