Commodities Wrap 19 October: Midday, Crude Slides on the Russia Waiver as Every Metal Rises
Both crude benchmarks traded below Friday’s settlements after President Donald Trump’s order waived the new Russia measures, Brent 1.35 percent lower at 108.38 dollars a barrel. Every metal rose, led by platinum at 1.65 percent, and the Cboe Volatility Index sank 7.50 percent. Coffee led the agriculture table at 1.78 percent while sugar fell 1.15. The session’s settlements follow in this wrap’s evening update.
The waiver takes some of the war premium out of crude
Trump’s order of Friday waived the new sanctions and import duties of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act days before they took effect, while stating that the earlier Russia sanctions are unaffected. The president said at the weekend he wants to keep Russia at the bargaining table for a peace deal, as market reports carried it; the same reports said crude surged nearly 5 percent last week and that Ukraine has signalled it will continue striking Russian facilities. Iran’s foreign minister told Iranian media on Sunday that the offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days still stands. Brent fell 1.35 percent to 108.38 dollars a barrel and WTI 0.40 percent to 101.00, holding the 100-dollar line of Friday’s settlement; the gap between the December Brent and November WTI contracts narrowed to 7.38 dollars from 8.45 at Friday’s settlements on our arithmetic. Natural gas was the only energy gain at 1.03 percent, recovering part of Friday’s fall, while gasoline lost 1.23 percent and heating oil 0.21. On the demand side, China’s economy grew 4.5 percent in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics reported, and the bureau’s energy release put September crude processing at 57.48 million tonnes, 8.4 percent below a year earlier and a wider fall than August’s.
Every metal rises as volatility sinks and the softs split
Platinum rose 1.65 percent to 1,660.10 dollars an ounce after two straight settlement gains, and palladium added 0.97 percent to 1,129.50, recovering from Friday’s session as the only metal that fell. Silver gained 0.74 percent to 57.73, copper 0.38 to 6.5985 and gold 0.13 percent to 4,186.60. The Cboe Volatility Index sank 7.50 percent to 18.49, unwinding part of Friday’s jump, and bitcoin rose 1.78 percent. In the softs, coffee added 1.78 percent to 311.05 and cotton 0.68, while sugar fell 1.15 percent to 20.61 and corn eased 0.26 on the overnight session.
Energy
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars per MMBtu | 3.148 | +1.03% |
| Heating Oil, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a gallon | 4.8888 | -0.21% |
| WTI Crude, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a barrel | 101.00 | -0.40% |
| Gasoline RBOB, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a gallon | 3.1957 | -1.23% |
| Brent Crude, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a barrel | 108.38 | -1.35% |
Basis: intraday quotes at 11:00 GMT against Friday’s settlements, settlement to snapshot, ranked by change; contract months as displayed; omitted rows named with values.
Metals
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Platinum, NYMEX (Jan’27), dollars an ounce | 1,660.10 | +1.65% |
| Palladium, NYMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | 1,129.50 | +0.97% |
| Silver, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | 57.73 | +0.74% |
| Copper, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars a pound | 6.5985 | +0.38% |
| Gold, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | 4,186.60 | +0.13% |
Basis: intraday quotes at 11:00 GMT against Friday’s settlements, settlement to snapshot, ranked by change; all five metals rose; omitted rows named with values.
Agriculture
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Coffee, ICE (Dec’26), cents a pound | 311.05 | +1.78% |
| Cotton, ICE (Dec’26), cents a pound | 80.54 | +0.68% |
| Cocoa, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a metric ton | 5,671.00 | +0.46% |
| Corn, CBOT (Dec’26), cents a bushel | 473.00 | -0.26% |
| Sugar, ICE (Mar’27), cents a pound | 20.61 | -1.15% |
Basis: intraday quotes at 11:00 GMT against Friday’s settlements, settlement to snapshot; the grain rows are the overnight session; wheat, up 0.42 percent at 663.25, and soybeans, up 0.04 at 1,261.75, are the omitted middle.
Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Cboe Volatility Index | 18.49 | -7.50% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.87 | +0.03% |
| Dollar/Yen | 158.17 | +0.11% |
| Euro/Dollar | 1.1218 | -0.19% |
| Sterling/Dollar | 1.3330 | +0.02% |
| Bitcoin, dollars | 82,297.80 | +1.78% |
Intraday quotes at 11:00 GMT, in fixed order; no daily settlement on these rows; omitted rows named with values.
Why it matters: The waiver did in one order what two weeks of risk headlines could not: it eased the threat of further restrictions on Russian supply, and part of the premium that Hormuz and the strikes built began to come out. The rest of the panel read it as relief rather than weakness, with every metal higher, volatility sharply lower and the softs moving on their own stories. Tonight’s settlements test whether the unwind survives a full New York session.
Outlook: United States equity futures traded higher through the morning, as market reports carried them. Our Middle East wrap follows after the regional closes, our Europe wrap after the European closing auctions, and the session’s settlements replace these quotes in this wrap’s evening update.
How these wraps are prepared: Methodology.
Sources: CNBC, the White House, the National Bureau of Statistics of China, The Edge.
