German Producer Prices Rise 6.7 Percent, Most Since March 2023; Crude Bill Up 21.7 Percent

By The Edge Research Team

German producer prices rose 6.7 percent in September from a year earlier, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on 20 October. That is the largest annual increase since March 2023, when the rate reached 7.5 percent. Prices rose 1.9 percent in the month alone. Energy did most of the work. Strip it out and producer prices were up 3.2 percent on the year and just 0.1 percent on August.

Oil products lead an energy jump

Energy cost 14.9 percent more than in September 2025. It rose 5.8 percent in a single month. Mineral oil products climbed 51.3 percent on the year and 8.2 percent on August. The office attributed that rise to “the conflict in Iran and the Middle East”. Heating oil cost 91.8 percent more than a year earlier.

In August, energy’s annual rate was 8.3 percent. September’s 14.9 percent is 6.6 percentage points higher, on our calculation.

German energy producer prices, September 2026

Domestic sales, excluding value added tax; change on September 2025.

The headline rate runs 3.5 percentage points above the rate without energy, on our calculation.

The energy index stood at 162.2 points in September, on a 2021 base of 100. That is its highest level since October 2023, on our reading of the official series. On our calculation, it is 21.6 percent above February but still 24.6 percent below its September 2022 level of 215.2.

A 10-point swing in 7 months

In February the annual rate was minus 3.3 percent. By September it was plus 6.7 percent, a swing of 10.0 percentage points on our calculation. The rate turned positive in April and has stayed there since. The overall index has gained 8.0 percent since February, on our calculation.

German producer prices, monthly path in 2026

Domestic sales of industrial products, excluding value added tax. The survey reference date is the 15th of each month.

On our reading of the series, the index is at its highest since December 2022, when it stood at 134.2. It is still 6.0 percent below its September 2022 level of 142.3, on our calculation. The annual rate that month was 38.6 percent.

Metals climb while food gets cheaper

Intermediate goods rose 6.4 percent on the year, up from 6.1 percent in August and 1.2 percent in January. Metals were 14.0 percent dearer. Copper and copper products cost 31.4 percent more, and precious metals 26.5 percent more. Basic chemicals were up 11.3 percent and fertiliser 8.9 percent. Pellets, briquettes and logs jumped 38.5 percent.

Capital goods rose 2.4 percent. Machinery cost 2.1 percent more than a year earlier, and motor vehicles 2.0 percent more. Durable consumer goods were 2.2 percent dearer.

Non-durable consumer goods went the other way, 1.8 percent cheaper than a year earlier. They have been below their year-earlier level in every month of 2026, on our reading. Food fell 4.1 percent. Butter was 34.8 percent cheaper than a year earlier. Pork fell 13.9 percent and beef 9.9 percent. Vegetable oils, by contrast, rose 14.5 percent.

The crude import bill: 30.0 billion euros in 8 months

A second Destatis release on the same day shows the cost side. Germany imported 49.1 million tonnes of crude oil from January to August, worth 30.0 billion euros. A year earlier it bought 49.4 million tonnes for 24.6 billion euros. Volume fell 0.6 percent. Value rose 21.7 percent. The office put the higher bill down to rising crude prices.

Those two rates imply the average cost of a tonne rose by more than 22 percent, on our calculation. The release puts the 2026 average at 610 euros a tonne. The same months of 2025 work out at just under 500 euros, on our calculation. Germany paid more than 5.3 billion euros extra for slightly less oil, on our calculation.

Average value of a tonne of imported crude oil, 2026

Change on February is our calculation. The all-time monthly high is 798 euros, in June 2022.

May is the year’s peak so far. August came in 21.0 percent below it, though 5.0 percent above July, on our calculation. It also sits 23.9 percent under the June 2022 record, on our calculation. The 8-month average of 610 euros is 11.1 percent below the 2022 annual average of 686 euros, on our calculation. It is even below the averages of 2012 and 2013, at 644 euros and 613 euros.

Germany’s top crude oil suppliers

Shares are our calculation on rounded tonnages; together the 3 suppliers provided 52.2 percent of the volume on the official count. Norway’s 2025 figure is given as roughly 12.4 million tonnes.

The United States was also the top supplier in 2025, narrowly ahead of Norway, which led in 2023 and 2024. US shipments in the first 8 months already equal 87.1 percent of the full 2025 total, on our calculation.

The supplier map has changed sharply since 2022. That year Russia shipped 22.8 million tonnes to Germany, nearly twice the volume from Norway or the United States. No crude imports from Russia have been recorded since 2025.

Why it matters: Producer prices are what factories charge, before goods reach the shops. September’s rise came mostly from energy. Outside energy, prices barely changed in the month. Germany is also paying more for each tonne of crude it imports, while buying slightly less of it.

Outlook: The next producer price release, for October, will show whether oil products keep their pace after the August rebound in crude import values. The non-energy rate, at 3.2 percent, is the line to watch for signs that higher fuel and metal costs are spreading through industry. Food remains a counterweight for now. Its prices are still below last year’s level.

Sources: Destatis, The Edge.

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