China’s RatingDog Factory PMI Eases to 52.0 While Output Grows Fastest Since April
China’s RatingDog manufacturing PMI, compiled by S&P Global, eased to 52.0 in October from 52.1, while output grew at the fastest pace since April and new orders kept rising.
For suppliers and exporters selling into China, the two monthly factory surveys now point in different directions. The official manufacturing index fell below 50 in October, as set out on 31 October, while this survey stayed in expansion. In The Edge’s reading, the stronger RatingDog survey comes at a price: firms are cutting selling prices to support sales while their input costs still rise, a combination that raises pressure on manufacturers’ margins.
The headline index slipped by 0.1 points on the month. It has now stayed above the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction for 11 straight months. That is the longest run of improving conditions since mid-2021.
Output rose for an 11th successive month, and at the sharpest rate since April. Growth was broad across consumer, intermediate and investment goods for a third month running, and steepest among investment goods makers.
Total new orders rose for a 17th consecutive month, at a sharp pace broadly in line with September. Panellists credited new product launches, better production capabilities and their own business development efforts.
Firms took on more staff to cope with the extra work, but job creation was only marginal. Backlogs of work rose for a ninth month at a broadly steady pace, so the hiring did little to ease pressure on capacity.
RatingDog survey, October against September
| Gauge | Direction | Pace |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PMI | Expansion | Little changed |
| Output | Rising | Fastest since April |
| New orders | Rising | Similar |
| Export orders | Rising | Slowest in three months |
| Employment | Rising | Marginal |
| Purchasing | Rising | Fastest since February |
| Input prices | Rising | Slower |
| Output prices | Falling | Fractional |
| Confidence | Positive | Nine-month low |
Seasonally adjusted survey of around 650 manufacturers; the release describes sub-indexes in words only.
Export orders keep rising, but at a three-month low
New export orders rose for a fourth month in a row. Firms reported more work from clients in Asia, Europe and Africa, but the pace eased to a three-month low and was modest.
The slowdown came from consumer and intermediate goods makers, while export orders picked up for investment goods firms. Average export charges fell for the first time in nearly a year, as firms priced to keep sales moving.
The official survey gives a weaker picture of trade. As set out on 31 October, its new export orders index fell to 48.7 from 50.0, a contraction reading and the lowest since May.
In the four months from July in which the RatingDog survey recorded rising export orders, the official index rose above 50 just once, in August. It read 50.1 that month and exactly 50.0 in September.
From January to October the official export orders index averaged 48.9. It ranged from 45.0 in February to 50.3 in April. Three months, April, June and August, came in above 50.
Official new export orders index, 2026 (index points)
| Month | Index |
|---|---|
| January | 47.8 |
| February | 45.0 |
| March | 49.1 |
| April | 50.3 |
| May | 48.6 |
| June | 50.1 |
| July | 49.6 |
| August | 50.1 |
| September | 50.0 |
| October | 48.7 |
Seasonally adjusted; a reading above 50 means export orders grew on the month.
Selling prices fall as competition intensifies
Output charges fell for the second time in three months. Firms said intense competition pushed them to lower prices to support sales, and slower increases in input costs left room for discounts.
Input prices rose for a 16th consecutive month, driven by raw materials such as metals and by fuel. The rate of input inflation softened from September and was below its average so far this year.
The official survey also shows price pressure easing, though not yet a fall at the factory gate. Its output price index slipped to 51.7 from 54.0, still in rising territory, as set out on 31 October. Its input price index eased to 56.8 from 60.8.
Purchasing activity grew at the fastest pace since February. Stocks of purchased goods rose for an 11th month, the strongest build in five months, while stocks of finished goods rose only fractionally.
Suppliers’ delivery times shortened for the first time since February, albeit marginally. Panellists put this down to better supplier efficiency and the availability of goods.
The gap between the two surveys widens to 2.7 points
The RatingDog index stood 2.7 points above the official manufacturing index in October, up from 2.0 points in September. The RatingDog index eased by 0.1 points, against a fall of 0.8 points in the official index.
The surveys differ in scale. The RatingDog panel covers around 650 manufacturers, stratified by sector and workforce size. The official survey samples 3,200 manufacturers across 31 industry divisions.
Both build their headline from the same five sub-indexes with identical weights, led by new orders and output. Both are seasonally adjusted, and a reading above 50 marks an improvement on the month before.
On output, the two point in opposite directions. RatingDog’s panel reported its fastest output growth in six months. The official production index, by contrast, dropped to 49.8 from 51.7, as set out on 31 October.
October headline readings (index points)
| Survey | Sep | Oct | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| RatingDog | 52.1 | 52.0 | -0.1 |
| Official | 50.1 | 49.3 | -0.8 |
| Gap | 2.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
Official figures are the National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI; the gap is the RatingDog index less the official index.
Confidence eases to a nine-month low
Business sentiment stayed positive, but the degree of confidence fell to a nine-month low. Some firms voiced concern about elevated input prices and heightened competition.
Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, said cost pressures, price competition and subdued confidence warrant attention. He said the index is expected “to remain in expansionary territory in the near term”.
Figures are from S&P Global’s RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI release of 2 November 2026 and the National Bureau of Statistics of China’s October 2026 purchasing managers’ index release of 31 October 2026; gaps, averages and counts not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: S&P Global, RatingDog, National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, The Edge.
