US Trade Deficit Eases to $105.0bn in September as Computer Imports Rise $7.6bn

By The Edge Research Team

The US trade deficit eased to $105.0 billion in September as exports rose across computers, soybeans and aircraft, but imports climbed, led by a $7.6 billion jump in computers.

For American firms and households the month sends a mixed signal. The monthly gap narrowed by $0.7 billion, yet the three-month average deficit rose $11.3 billion, and on the Census goods basis September’s gap was the widest since March 2025.

In The Edge’s reading, the three-month average and the goods gap are the stronger guides, because a $0.7 billion move in one month is small beside an $8.0 billion rise in goods imports on a Census basis.

The US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on 4 November that the goods and services deficit was $105.0 billion, down from $105.7 billion in August after revision.

Exports were $321.5 billion, up $5.8 billion. Imports were $426.6 billion, up $5.2 billion. The figures are seasonally adjusted, on a balance of payments basis and not adjusted for price changes.

Goods narrow the gap by $0.7 billion while computers drive a broad rise in imports

Exports rose 1.9% and imports 1.2%. The deficit was 0.7% smaller, and the release notes that statistical significance is not applicable or not measurable for these changes.

The narrowing came from goods, where the deficit fell $0.7 billion to $135.9 billion. The services surplus eased by less than $0.1 billion to $30.9 billion, and exports covered 75.4% of imports.

Trade in goods and services, September 2026 (in $ billions)

Seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis. The deficit and the goods deficit fell, so their changes are negative; rows may not add exactly because of rounding.

Goods imports on a Census basis rose $8.0 billion, with capital goods up $11.6 billion. Computers rose $7.6 billion and computer accessories $5.7 billion. Semiconductors fell $1.2 billion.

Computers and accessories together rose $13.3 billion, more than capital goods as a whole, so other capital goods lines fell on net.

Consumer goods imports rose $2.4 billion, with pharmaceutical preparations up $2.9 billion. Industrial supplies and materials fell $3.7 billion. Nonmonetary gold dropped $2.7 billion and crude oil $1.3 billion.

A $3.6 billion decrease in balance of payments adjustments explains why goods imports rose only $4.4 billion on the balance of payments basis. Imports of services rose $0.8 billion to $79.7 billion. Travel added $0.5 billion and transport $0.2 billion.

Selected goods movements, September 2026 (change from August, in $ billions)

Census basis. n/p means the release prints no movement for that line. Computers, accessories, aircraft, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, gold and crude oil are components of broader categories; soybeans (exports, +1.3) sit within foods, feeds and beverages.

Goods exports rose $5.1 billion to $211.0 billion. Capital goods rose $3.8 billion, and foods, feeds and beverages $1.9 billion. Soybeans supplied $1.3 billion of the food gain.

Industrial supplies and materials fell $1.0 billion. Nonmonetary gold dropped $3.4 billion, partly offset by a $1.2 billion rise in crude oil. Services exports rose $0.7 billion to $110.5 billion. Travel added $0.3 billion.

Computers show the imbalance plainly: imports rose $6.3 billion more than exports of the same category. The same comparison for accessories gives $4.9 billion.

The average deficit climbs, and the Census goods gap is the widest since March 2025

The average deficit for the three months to September was $101.2 billion, up $11.3 billion from the three-month average ending in August. It was $36.5 billion above the same span a year earlier.

Average exports were $316.0 billion and average imports $417.2 billion. Imports rose $12.7 billion from the average to August, more than nine times the $1.4 billion gain in exports.

Three-month moving averages to September 2026 (in $ billions)

Seasonally adjusted, balance of payments basis. Vs prior is the change on the three months to August; Vs year ago is the change on the three months to September 2025.

Over the first nine months of 2026 the deficit is $92.4 billion, or 12.2%, smaller than a year earlier. Exports are up $297.3 billion, or 11.6%. Imports are up $204.9 billion, or 6.2%.

The improvement was larger in the 6 October release, which covered the first eight months: $138.2 billion, or 19.9%. The two figures come from different releases and vintages, so they are not a like-for-like path.

On the Census basis, which counts goods only, the seasonally adjusted deficit was $135.1 billion in September, up 2.2% on August. It was 63.3% above September 2025. The advance goods report of 28 October had put the September deficit at $134.9 billion.

The release explains the difference from the balance of payments result: the Census-basis goods deficit rose while the balance of payments goods deficit fell, because of an adjustment for nonmonetary gold imports.

The September gap is the largest since March 2025, when it reached $158.7 billion. Imports of $344.2 billion are above every month of 2024 and 2025 on the same series. The 2025 high was $340.1 billion in March.

Since January the monthly deficit has risen about 71%. Imports rose 26.1% over the period and exports 7.8%.

Census-basis goods trade, seasonally adjusted (in $ billions)

Nominal, from the monthly series for trade in goods with the world, current vintage. Gap is the goods deficit. Rows may not add exactly because of rounding.

The nine-month Census-basis total tells the same two-part story as the balance of payments figures. The deficit for January to September is $920.6 billion, 6.6% below a year earlier. Exports are up 14.7% and imports up 6.6%.

Yet the first quarter of 2025 alone carried $455.3 billion of deficit, against $245.9 billion in 2026. From April to September the 2026 deficit is $674.7 billion, $144.2 billion above a year earlier. That is a rise of 27.2%.

Adjusted for price changes, the deficit rose faster. In 2017 dollars the goods deficit rose 3.0% to $119.5 billion, against 2.2% in nominal terms, because real exports barely moved.

Census-basis goods in 2017 dollars, September 2026 (level in $ billions, change from August in %)

Level is the real value in 2017 dollars; the change rows give the move from August in real and in nominal terms. Gap is the goods deficit.

Taiwan and the EU widen their gaps with the US while Canada narrows

The deficit with Taiwan rose $3.6 billion to $21.9 billion, the largest widening in the balance table below. Imports from Taiwan were 5.2 times exports to it, and the gap is again larger than the deficit with China. Our 6 October report set out the August gap of $18.3 billion, already wider than the deficit with China.

The deficit with the European Union rose $3.2 billion to $14.2 billion. The deficit with Canada fell $2.7 billion to $4.4 billion.

Bilateral goods trade, September 2026 (level and change from August, in $ billions)

Census basis, seasonally adjusted. Export and Import are US exports to and imports from the partner; Gap is the deficit. The deficit with Canada fell because imports dropped faster than exports.

Mexico, Vietnam and Taiwan together account for $75.9 billion of deficit, 4.2 times the figure for China. Surpluses were recorded with the Netherlands, South and Central America, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Australia, Brazil, Singapore, Saudi Arabia and Belgium.

Goods balance with selected partners (surplus +, deficit -; in $ billions)

Census basis, seasonally adjusted. August figures are as first printed on 6 October 2026 and are the same in the September release’s exhibit 19. Change is September minus August, so a negative figure means a larger deficit or a smaller surplus.

The US keeps goods surpluses with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar

The release itself prints one Gulf line: a $0.5 billion surplus with Saudi Arabia, against $0.4 billion in August. The bureau’s country pages, which are not seasonally adjusted, put it at $457.5 million.

On those pages the UAE is the largest of the six Gulf markets, which are the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait. US exports to the UAE were $2,637.0 million, or 58.6% of the total sent to the six. The surplus with the UAE was $1,842.8 million.

The surpluses with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar add up to $2.7 billion. Kuwait is the only one of the six where US imports exceeded exports in September.

US imports from Kuwait were $336.9 million, 61.1% above a year earlier. Exports were $162.1 million, which left a deficit of $174.8 million. Imports from Egypt were $317.4 million, up 24.9% on the year.

US goods balance with Gulf markets and Egypt (not seasonally adjusted, in $ millions)

Country pages, nominal; a positive balance is a US surplus. The six Gulf markets together show a surplus of $2,516.6 million in September.

What to watch: The October report is due on 8 December 2026 at 13:30 GMT (8:30 a.m. in Washington). It will show whether the three-month average deficit, now $101.2 billion, keeps rising and whether imports stay above $426.6 billion.

Method: figures are from the US Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis release “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2026”, published 4 November 2026, with the August comparisons from the 6 October 2026 release and the Census-basis series and country balances from the bureau’s trade data pages; percentages, sums, differences, rankings and comparisons across the monthly series not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.

Sources: US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Edge.

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