IEA, IMF, World Bank and WTO Chiefs Say the Global Economy Is Broadly Resilient to the War’s Shock but Impacts Are Uneven
The heads of the International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group and the World Trade Organization said the global economy “has been broadly resilient” to the shock from the war in the Middle East, but warned that the impacts remain highly uneven across energy supplies, food security, commodities and economic activity, in a joint statement issued on Wednesday after their coordination group met on 7 July.
Fuel and fertilizer prices have dropped since the group last met in June, the statement said, while cautioning: “Uncertainty remains high, and the impacts of the war could linger. Energy markets and transit of goods are still facing strains.” Some economies have experienced a slowdown in growth and an uptick in inflation, it added.
The four heads encouraged further progress toward a resolution of the conflict and “the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz,” and called on governments to uphold the principle of freedom of navigation in the strait and globally, an indication that transit through the waterway had not fully normalised as of the statement’s release.
The statement urged governments to remain vigilant, support economic recovery, protect jobs and livelihoods, and strengthen energy and food security, including through improved port infrastructure and trade facilitation. The institutions committed to continue jointly monitoring energy, trade and economic developments and to strengthen their readiness to act further if needed.
The tone marks a shift from the group’s 29 May statement, which reported a major loss of supply through the Strait of Hormuz and record drawdowns of global oil inventories. The softer reading on prices comes as the IMF’s July outlook update, released the same day, projects global growth of 3.0 percent in 2026, a slowdown of 0.5 percentage point from 2025’s 3.5 percent, our calculation based on IMF figures, before a recovery to 3.4 percent in 2027.
Why it matters: The call to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and uphold freedom of navigation goes to the heart of the Gulf’s main export route, where the statement itself notes that energy markets and the transit of goods still face strains. For the region’s energy importers, such as Egypt and Jordan, the statement’s focus on uneven impacts and food security underlines where the strain is concentrated, and the institutions’ pledge to adapt support to countries as the situation evolves is the operative commitment to watch.
Outlook: The group will continue joint monitoring, with its readiness to act tied to how the conflict and shipping conditions evolve. The next data markers are OPEC’s monthly report due around mid-July, the IEA’s oil market report and the course of the diplomatic track between Washington and Tehran.
Sources: IEA; IMF; World Bank Group; WTO.
