Musk’s SpaceX stake alone sheds 531 billion dollars as shares fall 49 percent

By The Edge Research Team

Elon Musk’s holding in SpaceX alone has lost roughly 531 billion dollars of market value in 52 days, on our calculation using the shareholding Forbes reports and the two share prices Forbes itself cites. Including his options the figure is about 570 billion dollars. He cannot sell any of it: his stake remains restricted until the middle of 2027.

Forbes reports that Musk holds a roughly 38 percent stake in SpaceX, consisting of 4.8 billion shares and a further 350 million options struck at 8.40 dollars. The shares peaked at 225.64 dollars on 16 June 2026, the day the company listed, and closed at 114.92 dollars on 6 August. The arithmetic follows directly.

The company’s market value moved on the same scale. Forbes put SpaceX at about 2.99 trillion dollars at the 16 June peak; market data quoted it at around 1.51 trillion dollars after the 6 August close. The shares now sit 14.9 percent below the 135 dollar price at which the flotation was priced, on our calculation, and 9.6 percent above the 104.83 dollar low.

Musk’s total wealth has fallen further than the SpaceX position alone, but for reasons that are not all market-driven, and the distinction matters.

Part of that reduction is a change in method rather than a change in price. On 17 June Musk exercised Tesla options under an April agreement that converted them into restricted shares he forfeits unless he remains at Tesla through January 2028. Forbes removed the resulting 116 billion dollars of restricted Tesla stock, representing an 8 percent stake in that company, from its calculation, stating that it did so to be consistent with how it treats other billionaires’ unvested restricted stock. Tesla’s own share price also fell over the period. The 723 billion dollar figure is therefore not a SpaceX number and should not be presented as one.

The immediate pressure on the shares was mechanical. Forbes reported that 911.5 million shares held by employees and early investors became eligible for sale on Thursday 6 August, roughly 140 percent of the approximately 639 million shares in the original flotation float. The release is staggered: by 8 December as much as 40 percent of the company could be tradable, while the remaining 60 percent, including Musk’s own holding, is expected to stay restricted until the middle of 2027.

A lock-up expiry does not change what a company earns and it does not mean the shares are sold. It changes how many shares may be sold, and in a newly listed company with a concentrated register that alone can move the price. In this instance the shares rose 6.1 percent on the day the restriction lapsed, closing at 114.92 dollars against 108.27 dollars the day before, which suggests the market had already priced the supply before it arrived.

The other pressure is the spending. SpaceX reported its second-quarter results on 4 August.

Revenue and the loss both came in ahead of expectations. The spending did not, and it is the reason the shares fell 13 percent to about 109 dollars on 5 August, taking 81 billion dollars off Musk’s net worth in a single session. Quarterly spending of 18.3 billion dollars against quarterly revenue of 7.81 billion is the ratio investors are being asked to accept. On 7 August Reuters reported that the company had confirmed an initial 16.8 billion dollar investment in Terafab, a semiconductor plant in Grimes County, Texas, which does nothing to soften that ratio.

Even after losing close to half his peak wealth Musk remains about two and a half times richer than the second name on the list, on our calculation. None of the decline has been realised. It is a change in the estimated value of holdings he is contractually unable to sell.

Why it matters: Gulf markets are meeting this mechanism at scale. Boursa Kuwait, Tadawul and the Emirati exchanges have run heavy flotation pipelines, and every one of those listings carries a lock-up that expires on a known date with a known number of shares attached. Our reading is that the SpaceX episode illustrates a risk that is entirely foreseeable and still routinely mispriced: in the first year after a listing it is the register, not the earnings, that sets the floor. The detail worth carrying across is that the shares rose on the day the restriction lapsed. The damage was done in the weeks of anticipation beforehand, which is where the expiry calendar earns its attention, not on the day itself.

Looking ahead: three things are unsettled. Whether the 911.5 million newly eligible shares are actually sold rather than merely saleable. Whether investors accept spending of 18.3 billion dollars a quarter against revenue of 7.81 billion, now with a further 16.8 billion dollars committed in Texas. And whether the shares hold above 104.83 dollars. The next scheduled test of the register is 8 December, when as much as 40 percent of the company could be tradable.

Sources: Forbes, “Elon Musk Is No Longer A Trillionaire”, 24 June 2026; Forbes, “Elon Musk’s Net Worth Drops 350 Billion In Massive SpaceX Selloff”, 22 June 2026; Forbes, “Nearly 1 Billion SpaceX Shares Unlock August 6”, 4 August 2026; Forbes, “SpaceX Shares Plunge 13 Percent As Elon Musk’s Fortune Sheds 80 Billion”, 5 August 2026; Forbes real-time billionaires, 7 August 2026; Nasdaq market data for SPCX; Reuters, 7 August 2026, on the Terafab investment.

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