Commodities Wrap 25 August: Brent Falls Almost 4 Percent While the Refined Barrel Barely Moves
Crude collapsed on Tuesday and the products refined from it did not follow. Brent for October delivery fell 3.92 percent to 88.56 dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate 3.14 percent to 82.34 dollars, both a second consecutive session of sharp declines, while ultra-low-sulphur diesel gave up 0.75 percent and gasoline 0.73 percent. Ten of the seventeen contracts we track were lower, and the spread between the best and worst performers was 5.62 percentage points, on our calculation, roughly half the 10.75 points recorded in Monday’s published snapshot.
Reuters reported that both crude benchmarks hit their lowest levels since 17 August as traders shrugged off the latest United States sanctions campaign on Iran, treating economic pressure as posing less risk to oil supplies than a military escalation would.
Energy
The interesting number is not the fall in crude but what did not fall with it. A one to one spread of the diesel contract against West Texas Intermediate, used here as a rough indicator rather than a full refining margin, widened from about 94.23 dollars a barrel to about 95.56, a gain of roughly 1.33 dollars in a session where the crude leg dropped more than three percent. The equivalent gasoline spread widened by about 1.67 dollars to about 54.03.
Read across the two sessions using Monday’s final settlements as the prior-day anchor, the diesel picture is less reassuring than Tuesday alone suggests. Monday was the mirror image of Tuesday: diesel settled 5.05 percent lower against a 2.35 percent fall in crude, which compressed the same spread by about 7.49 dollars, from roughly 101.73 on Friday to 94.23. Tuesday’s 1.33 dollar widening recovers only about 18 percent of that, leaving the proxy some 6.17 dollars below where it stood at the end of last week. Gasoline is the opposite case: its spread compressed by only about 1.19 dollars on Monday and has widened 1.67 since, so it now sits roughly 0.48 dollars above Friday. Diesel has not recovered; gasoline has.
The Brent to West Texas Intermediate differential narrowed to about 6.22 dollars from about 7.16, on our calculation, as the international benchmark fell faster than the domestic one. Natural gas was the only energy contract higher, adding 0.68 percent to 2.801 dollars per million British thermal units.
Metals
The weakness in metals was specific to the platinum group rather than general. Copper, the most industrially exposed of the five contracts we track, was the strongest metal on the board and the second strongest anywhere, up 1.54 percent to 6.707 dollars a pound. Silver rose 0.78 percent to 69.13 dollars an ounce and gold 0.43 percent to 4,718.20 dollars. Only platinum, down 1.05 percent to 1,869.30 dollars, and palladium, down 2.00 percent to 1,336.00 dollars and the weakest metal of the day, were lower.
That pattern rules out the obvious reading. This was not industrial demand being marked down against monetary demand, because the most industrial contract in the complex led it. The two platinum group metals carry the heaviest automotive exposure of the five, and they fell on a session in which the Stoxx Europe 600 automobiles and parts index also fell 0.34 percent and Volkswagen’s restructuring dominated the European corporate tape. The Edge notes the coincidence and does not claim the causation; copper’s strength is the reason not to.
Because silver outpaced gold, the gold to silver ratio narrowed to about 68.25 from about 68.49, a small move but one in the opposite direction to Monday’s.
Agriculture
Agriculture divided cleanly between grains and softs. All three grains rose, led by corn at 1.70 percent to 524.25 cents a bushel, the strongest of the seventeen contracts, with soybeans up 1.18 percent to 1,238.75 cents and wheat 0.71 percent to 704.50 cents. Every soft commodity fell. Sugar was the weakest at minus 2.27 percent to 17.25 cents a pound, coffee gave up 1.99 percent to 334.85 cents, cocoa 1.70 percent to 5,844.00 dollars a tonne and cotton 0.59 percent to 88.31 cents.
Coffee is the contract to watch. It rose 5.94 percent on Monday, the largest single move in the complex that day, and has now surrendered about a third of that gain. The Edge did not confirm a driver for Monday’s move at an approved originator and has not confirmed one for Tuesday’s reversal either. Both are reported here as price facts rather than explained ones.
Rates, currencies and the wider tape
Treasury yields fell across the curve. The 10-year dropped 6.7 basis points to 4.637 percent, the 30-year 6.1 basis points to 5.170 percent and the two-year 4.1 basis points to 4.195 percent. The two to thirty year spread narrowed by about two basis points to roughly 97.5, a mild bull flattening and a much smaller version of Monday’s five basis point move.
The dollar eased, with the ICE dollar index down 0.11 percent at 98.893 as the euro firmed 0.12 percent to 1.1676 and sterling 0.13 percent to 1.3648. The VIX fell 2.27 percent to 15.49 and bitcoin added 0.47 percent to 79,166.74 dollars.
Energy, 25 August, ranked by change
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas (Sep 26) | $2.801/mmBtu | +0.68% |
| RBOB gasoline (Sep 26) | $3.247/gal | -0.73% |
| Heating oil ULSD (Sep 26) | $4.2357/gal | -0.75% |
| WTI crude (Oct 26) | $82.34 | -3.14% |
| Brent crude (Oct 26) | $88.56 | -3.92% |
Metals, 25 August, ranked by change
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Copper (Sep 26) | $6.707/lb | +1.54% |
| Silver (Sep 26) | $69.13/oz | +0.78% |
| Gold (Dec 26) | $4,718.20/oz | +0.43% |
| Platinum (Oct 26) | $1,869.30/oz | -1.05% |
| Palladium (Sep 26) | $1,336.00/oz | -2.00% |
Agriculture, 25 August, ranked by change
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Corn (Dec 26) | 524.25 cents/bu | +1.70% |
| Soybeans (Nov 26) | 1,238.75 cents/bu | +1.18% |
| Wheat (Dec 26) | 704.50 cents/bu | +0.71% |
| Cotton (Dec 26) | 88.31 cents/lb | -0.59% |
| Cocoa (Dec 26) | $5,844.00/t | -1.70% |
| Coffee (Dec 26) | 334.85 cents/lb | -1.99% |
| Sugar (Oct 26) | 17.25 cents/lb | -2.27% |
Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto, 25 August
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $79,166.74 | +0.47% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3648 | +0.13% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1676 | +0.12% |
| USD/JPY | 159.16 | +0.05% |
| ICE dollar index | 98.893 | -0.11% |
| VIX | 15.49 | -2.27% |
| US 2-year Treasury yield | 4.195% | -4.1 bp |
| US 30-year Treasury yield | 5.170% | -6.1 bp |
| US 10-year Treasury yield | 4.637% | -6.7 bp |
All commodity, rate, currency, volatility and crypto levels are a single capture taken at 19:23 GMT on 25 August 2026, after each contract’s settlement window had closed, and are post-settlement screen prices rather than exchange settlement prices. Day-on-day changes are against the previous closing values on the same feed, which are Monday’s settlements. The two-day refining comparison in the energy section uses Monday’s final settlements as the baseline against Tuesday’s post-settlement snapshot, and therefore differs from the intraday percentages published in our commodities wrap of 24 August, which were captured before Monday’s settlements. Crack spreads, the Brent to West Texas Intermediate differential, the gold to silver ratio, the yield curve spread and the dispersion measure are The Edge’s calculations. Sources: CNBC for all commodity, rate, currency, volatility and crypto levels; Reuters; The Edge calculations.
WHAT IS AHEAD
Nvidia reports second quarter results after the United States close on Wednesday at about 20:20 GMT. Earlier the same day, at 12:30 GMT, the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases July personal consumption expenditures inflation alongside the second estimate of second quarter gross domestic product and preliminary corporate profits. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs from Thursday to Saturday, with keynote remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Friday. Boursa Kuwait is closed on Thursday 27 August for the birth of the Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, and resumes on Sunday 30 August.
