Commodities Wrap 9 September: Brent Settles at 101 Dollars, Highest Since May, as Gulf Fighting Escalates

By The Edge Research Team

Brent crude settled at 101.21 dollars a barrel on Wednesday, up 3.4 percent and its highest close since 22 May, and United States West Texas Intermediate settled at 96.05 dollars, up 3.3 percent, as fighting between the United States and Iran in the Persian Gulf escalated and raised fears that energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz would fall, per CNBC. ULSD heating oil led our energy board, up 5.13 percent at our 19:24 GMT capture, while natural gas fell 3.81 percent and RBOB gasoline 1.10 percent, so the energy complex did not move as one.

Brent closed at a near four month high

The escalation, now in its seventh month, drove the barrel. The United States military destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers on Tuesday after attempted attacks on an American warship, which successfully evaded them with no personnel harmed, according to United States Central Command as carried by CNBC, and the market read the exchange as a fresh threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical export chokepoint for Persian Gulf producers. The strain showed in refined products: retail gasoline hit a Labor Day record of 4.15 dollars a gallon on Monday, and diesel is expected to reach 6 dollars a gallon for the first time in the coming days, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis said on Wednesday, on the same reporting, which tracks the ULSD contract’s 5.13 percent jump on our board.

Levels captured at 19:24 GMT on 9 September 2026, after the settlement windows, ranked by change and measured against 8 September’s settlements as carried in the price feed. Brent’s ICE settlement was 101.21 dollars a barrel, up 3.4 percent, and WTI’s NYMEX settlement 96.05 dollars, up 3.3 percent, per CNBC; the table carries the captured after window feed levels, which sit fractionally above those settlements.

Goldman Sachs sees a path to 120 dollars

The escalation is raising the risk of oil above 120 dollars a barrel as attacks on shipping intensify, Goldman Sachs’s co-head of global commodities research said on Wednesday. The bank’s base case remains for Gulf exports to recover gradually as producers adapt to the disruption, including through alternative shipping routes and, eventually, additional pipeline capacity, but the recent escalation has increased the chances of a more bullish scenario in which exports fail to recover in the coming months, on the same reporting.

Metals firmed, gold stayed flat

The metals complex firmed with the risk tone, led by platinum, up 2.87 percent, and silver, up 1.43 percent, with copper up 0.54 percent. Gold, already at an elevated level, was little changed at up 0.11 percent, and palladium was flat at up 0.14 percent. Gold’s muted move, on a day of fresh hostilities, suggests incremental safe haven demand was limited in the session, with the market watching United States inflation data due later this week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on 16 September.

Same 19:24 GMT capture and basis, ranked by change; captured after window levels measured against 8 September’s settlements.

Grains fell, softs were mixed, volatility rose

The agricultural board leaned lower, with wheat down 2.44 percent, corn down 0.98 percent and soybeans down 0.57 percent, while the softs were mixed, sugar up 1.38 percent and cotton up 1.26 percent. On the wider board the Cboe Volatility Index rose 3.63 percent to 16.29 as equities weakened, the dollar index was little changed at up 0.05 percent and the dollar eased 0.20 percent against the yen to 153.65, all intraday at the 19:24 GMT capture.

Same 19:24 GMT capture and basis, ranked by change. Coffee (Dec’26, 291.15 cents a pound, minus 0.05 percent) and cocoa (Dec’26, 5,937.00 dollars a metric ton, plus 0.41 percent) are omitted to keep the table lean.

Why it matters: The day put the supply risk premium most clearly into crude and distillates, on our reading: Brent closed at a near four month high, heating oil outran it, and retail diesel is being called toward 6 dollars a gallon, so the market is pricing a disruption to Gulf shipping rather than a one day spike. Gasoline and natural gas fell, however, so this was not a uniform energy rally. The metals generally firmed, but gold’s muted move suggests limited haven demand this session, while the grains fell on their own balance, which underlines that the driver was the oil and shipping story, not a broad commodities bid.

Outlook: The near term turns on the Strait of Hormuz and whether Gulf exports recover, on our reading. Goldman Sachs’s base case is a gradual recovery through alternative routes and pipeline capacity, but it flags a rising chance of a scenario in which exports do not recover and Brent pushes toward 120 dollars. United States producer prices land Thursday and consumer prices Friday, the last major inflation readings before the Federal Reserve decides on 16 September, and with crude at a near four month high a firm print would sharpen the inflation channel that is already weighing on the rate sensitive metals.

Sources: CNBC, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, The Edge.

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