OPEC Cuts Its 2026 Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 380,000 Barrels a Day for a Fifth Month
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels a day in its Monthly Oil Market Report released on Thursday in Vienna, a figure the report’s own summary rounds to about 400,000. It was the fifth consecutive monthly reduction, per Bloomberg, and leaves the estimate for this year’s growth close to 1 million barrels a day below the roughly 1.4 million seen in April, less than a third of that starting point on our calculation.
The developed economies turn into a drag
The net figure of 380,000 barrels a day masks a split by region. OPEC expects demand in the developed economies of the OECD to fall by about 110,000 barrels a day in 2026, while demand outside the OECD grows by about 490,000, so on our reading all of this year’s projected demand growth, and more, now comes from outside the developed world, which has become a net drag on the total. For 2027 the picture is stronger and was revised the other way: the report puts demand growth at about 2.36 million barrels a day, an upgrade from the previous month, with the developed economies adding about 430,000 and the rest of the world about 1.92 million. The near term was trimmed even as the following year was raised, on our reading consistent with a view that the current softness is more cyclical than lasting.
| Segment | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| World total | 0.38 | 2.36 |
| Non-OECD | 0.49 | 1.92 |
| OECD | -0.11 | 0.43 |
World oil demand growth in million barrels a day, from OPEC’s September 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report. The 2026 world figure is a slight downward revision from the previous month and the 2027 figure an upward one; the report’s summary rounds them to about 0.4 and about 2.4. Segments may not sum to the total because of rounding in the source.
Supply is still set to grow faster than demand
On the other side of the balance, the report left its forecast for liquids supply from producers outside the Declaration of Cooperation unchanged at growth of about 600,000 barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, naming Brazil, the United States, Canada and Argentina as this year’s main drivers, and it added a further 100,000 barrels a day of natural gas liquids from within the coalition. Supply growth from outside the coalition alone therefore exceeds the 380,000 barrel a day rise expected in world demand this year, on our reading. The balance puts the call on the coalition’s crude at 42.2 million barrels a day in 2026, about 400,000 below the 2025 level, though that figure was nudged up from the August assessment even as the demand forecast was cut.
Output as measured by the secondary sources the report relies on has been rising through the same months the demand growth outlook has been cut. Production from the countries in the Declaration of Cooperation rose by about 300,000 barrels a day month on month in August to average about 38.05 million, and by about 1.8 million over the two months from June, with Iraq contributing the single largest August increase, up about 664,000 barrels a day.
| Month | Output | Month on month |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 38.055 | +0.30 |
| July 2026 | 37.757 | +1.53 |
| June 2026 | 36.232 | n/a |
Declaration of Cooperation crude production in million barrels a day, from the September 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report’s secondary sources; monthly changes on our calculation from the reported levels. The June to August rise totals about 1.8 million barrels a day.
Why it matters: The annual arithmetic still tilts toward supply, on our reading: the outlook for demand growth has been cut for a fifth straight month and now leans entirely on economies outside the developed world, while supply from outside the producer coalition is still forecast to grow faster than demand, even though the report nudged up its estimate of the call on the coalition’s own crude. The demand cut came without any change to the world economic growth forecast, held at 3 percent for 2026 and 3.2 percent for 2027, which on our reading is consistent with a lower oil intensity of global growth, oil demand rising more slowly than output, rather than a weaker economy. The downgrade has also coincided with Brent crude trading above 100 dollars a barrel this month, against a reference basket that averaged 86.44 dollars in August, showing on our reading that recent price strength has not been accompanied by an improving annual demand outlook, per The Edge market wraps.
Outlook: The near term turns on whether the coalition keeps restoring output into a demand outlook it is still trimming, on our reading, since a supply side already set to grow faster than demand leaves little room for error on price if the softness the report has flagged for five months deepens. For the group’s member economies, a firmer 2027 demand forecast supports the revenue outlook further out, while the nearer term combination of softer demand growth and rising supply is the tension the next monthly report will test. The following edition is due in about a month and will show whether the fifth cut becomes a sixth.
Sources: OPEC, Bloomberg, The Edge.
