UK Economy Grows 0.4 Percent in July for an Eighth Consecutive Three Month Rise
The UK economy grew 0.4 percent in July after 0.3 percent in June, the Office for National Statistics said, and the three month measure rose 0.4 percent for an eighth consecutive three month on three month rise.
Those are rolling windows rather than discrete quarters, each overlapping the one before it by two months.
No previously published figure was revised in this release. With no periods open for revision, June’s 0.3 percent growth and May’s previously published flat reading were unchanged.
Two annual rates, and they are not the same measure
| UK output, July 2026 | Monthly | Three months on three months |
|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Services | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Production | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| Construction | 0.1% | -0.5% |
As published. The three month column compares the three months to July with the three months to April.
Output was 1.3 percent higher in the three months to July than in the same three months of 2025, and 1.6 percent higher in July alone than in July 2025. Those are different objects and the office publishes both; the first is a rolling average and the second a single calendar month.
Production is the line where the month and the three month view disagree. It rose 0.2 percent in July and is down 0.5 percent on the three month measure.
Inside production, extraction fell hard
Manufacturing rose 0.9 percent in the month and 0.5 percent on the three month measure, with computer, electronic and optical products up 5.2 percent.
Mining and quarrying fell 4.4 percent in the month and 2.6 percent on the three month measure. Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply fell 1.5 percent on both. Water supply and sewerage rose 2.0 percent in the month but is down 4.0 percent on the three month measure, with sewerage down 11.8 percent, its largest three monthly fall since July 2017.
Services did the work, and one industry did most of it
Administrative and support services rose 3.7 percent in July, with rental and leasing up 7.9 percent. Information and communication rose 2.4 percent, computer programming and consultancy within it up 3.5 percent, contributing 0.12 percentage points to the whole economy.
Wholesale and retail trade fell 1.0 percent and was the largest single drag on both services and output, taking 0.05 percentage points off gross domestic product.
On the three month view the leaders are different again: professional, scientific and technical activities up 2.1 percent with scientific research up 7.0 percent, and information and communication up 2.5 percent. Education fell 0.3 percent, which the office links to school closures during the June heatwave.
The trade figures come with a warning attached
| UK trade, three months to July 2026 | Balance, billion pounds | Change on the previous three months |
|---|---|---|
| Services | 52.6 | widened 0.7 |
| Total trade | -9.0 | narrowed 1.1 |
| Goods | -61.6 | narrowed 0.4 |
As published, current prices excluding precious metals. The services surplus offsets 85.4 percent of the goods deficit on our calculation.
In July alone goods exports rose 2.8 percent to 33.9 billion pounds and goods imports rose 2.4 percent to 55.3 billion, leaving a monthly goods deficit of 21.4 billion. Imports were 1.63 times exports on our calculation.
Fuel moved against the direction of prices. Goods imports from outside the European Union rose 1.7 billion pounds in the month, but within that fuel imports fell 0.4 billion, which the office attributes to lower imports of crude oil from the United States.
Two caveats belong with these numbers and the office publishes both. UK trade statistics have not held National Statistics accreditation since it was suspended in November 2014 and it has not been reinstated. And between September 2025 and early 2027 the international trade in services survey is processed once a quarter rather than monthly, so the survey component of the current services estimates is forecast from time series data and combined with other sources rather than drawn from fresh survey returns.
Why it matters: An eighth consecutive three month rise is the headline, but the composition is narrower than the headline suggests. Services grew while production and construction shrank on the three month measure, and wholesale and retail trade was the largest single drag on the month at 0.05 percentage points. The office itself warns that monthly rates are volatile and should be read alongside the three month measure. The trade account is the harder read: a goods deficit of 61.6 billion pounds over three months is offset 85.4 percent by services, and part of that services figure is currently modelled rather than collected.
Outlook: The August estimate publishes on 15 October, and it will not be a routine release. The whole time series reopens for revision at that point to take in Blue Book 2026 and the 2024 supply and use tables, so the eight consecutive rises are themselves provisional in a way this release’s figures are not. Mining and quarrying, down 4.4 percent in a month when crude prices rose sharply, is the line to watch next.
Sources: Office for National Statistics.
