German Factory Order Backlog Sets Another Record in July, Now 9.0 Months of Output
Germany’s manufacturing order backlog rose 1.5 percent in July from June in real terms and set another all-time high, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said on 17 September. It was 10.9 percent larger than in July 2025. At their average turnover of the past 12 months, factories would need 9.0 months to clear it, the first time the range has been that long since the series began in 2015.
Aircraft, ships and military vehicles carry the total
The office attributes the record mainly to other transport equipment, which covers aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles. The sector has taken in many new orders and has long production times. Its backlog rose 3.9 percent in July. Machinery and equipment added 0.8 percent, while the automotive industry’s backlog fell 1.7 percent. Excluding other transport equipment, the statistics office said, the backlog is significantly below its record.
By type of producer, capital goods makers’ backlog rose 1.8 percent and now equals 12.6 months of turnover, up from 12.4 months. Consumer goods rose 1.7 percent and intermediate goods 0.6 percent, and both kept the same range as in June.
| Producer group | June | July |
|---|---|---|
| All manufacturing | 8.9 months | 9.0 months |
| Capital goods | 12.4 months | 12.6 months |
| Intermediate goods | 4.6 months | 4.6 months |
| Consumer goods | 4.3 months | 4.3 months |
Range of the stock of orders: current backlog divided by average turnover over the last 12 months, assuming no new orders.
Domestic orders pull ahead
Unfilled domestic orders rose 3.0 percent in July and foreign orders 0.6 percent. On our calculation from the seasonally adjusted index, the domestic backlog is 16.5 percent larger than a year ago and the foreign backlog 7.6 percent. The domestic index stands at 134.4 against 2021’s average of 100, the foreign index at 110.3.
On our reading of the index, the total has not fallen in any month since July 2025, holding flat at 111.7 in January and rising in every other month for a gain of 6.1 percent since January.
| Month | Total | Domestic | Foreign |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | 106.9 | 115.4 | 102.5 |
| Jan 2026 | 111.7 | 124.9 | 104.8 |
| Jun 2026 | 116.7 | 130.5 | 109.6 |
| Jul 2026 | 118.5 | 134.4 | 110.3 |
Volume index of unfilled orders, 2021 = 100, seasonally and calendar adjusted. The year on year change in the release, 10.9 percent, is calendar adjusted only.
Why it matters: The record rests mainly on other transport equipment. On our reading, the 12.6 month range for capital goods gives those producers long visibility, while the 1.7 percent fall in the automotive backlog and a total outside other transport equipment that is significantly below its record show the build is not broad.
Outlook: The coming releases will show whether growth in the backlog broadens beyond other transport equipment, where many new orders and long production times have concentrated the record.
Sources: Destatis.
