China’s Exports Beat at 23.9 Percent While Crude Imports Sink 24.3 Percent
China’s exports grew twenty three point nine percent year on year in July in dollar terms, ahead of the twenty two point two percent expected in a Reuters poll, while imports rose twenty seven point five percent against an expected twenty seven point nine, customs data released on 7 August showed. The trade surplus came in at one hundred and twelve point five billion dollars, down from one hundred and twenty five point six two billion in June. In the same release, crude oil imports fell twenty four point three percent from a year earlier.
In yuan, the currency of the primary release, total goods trade reached four point six six trillion yuan in July, up nineteen point two percent, the fifth consecutive month above four trillion. Exports were two point seven one trillion yuan, up seventeen point eight percent, and imports one point nine five trillion yuan, up twenty one point two percent. Growth rates in yuan and dollars need not match, because exchange rate conversion changes the year on year comparison and the yuan was trading near a three and a half year high.
| July 2026 | Actual | Reuters poll | June |
| Exports, dollar terms | Up 23.9 percent | Up 22.2 percent | Up 27 percent |
| Imports, dollar terms | Up 27.5 percent | Up 27.9 percent | Up 36 percent |
| Trade surplus | 112.5 billion dollars | About 107 billion | 125.62 billion dollars |
| Surplus with the United States | 28 billion dollars | Not polled | 28.86 billion dollars |
Customs emphasised the contribution of high technology and green goods. Lü Daliang, director of the customs statistics and analysis department, said high technology product exports grew more than fifty percent in July and accounted for close to sixty percent of all export growth, and that electric vehicles, lithium batteries and similar low carbon goods have now posted double digit growth for seventeen consecutive months. Reuters separately identified a timing effect, reporting that exporters and United States importers accelerated shipments ahead of an expected tariff increase after a temporary ten percent global levy expired in late July. The two are complementary rather than competing: the product mix reflects a multi-year shift toward technology intensive exports, while tariff timing can amplify a single month’s reading.
Across January to July, total goods trade reached thirty point one three trillion yuan, up seventeen point three percent, with exports of seventeen point four four trillion yuan, up fourteen percent, and imports of twelve point six nine trillion yuan, up twenty two percent. Import growth outpacing export growth by eight percentage points over the seven months is the line customs itself emphasised. Mechanical and electrical goods made up sixty three point eight percent of exports at eleven point one two trillion yuan, up twenty one point two percent, with electric vehicles up seventy one point two percent and lithium batteries up thirty five point eight percent. Labour intensive exports fell one point four percent.
The oil side of the release moved the other way. Crude imports were thirty five point seven three million tonnes in July, about eight point four million barrels a day, down twenty four point three percent from a year earlier but up twenty two percent from June, which had been the weakest month since October 2016. Across January to July, crude imports were down thirteen point two percent. Natural gas imports fell zero point nine percent to ten point five four million tonnes.
The monthly rebound and the annual decline are different comparisons with different explanations. Reuters reported that refiners bought opportunistically while Brent traded in the seventies during a brief partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June, and that state refiners were returning from maintenance overhauls. Weak refinery throughput is one factor consistent with subdued crude demand rather than a complete account of it: average distillation unit utilisation rose only zero point eight two of a percentage point on the month to fifty eight point eight one percent in July, against roughly seventy two percent a year earlier, according to the Chinese consultancy Oilchem, cited by Reuters.
Why it matters: July shows an unusual divergence inside China’s external economy. Export values rose almost a quarter from a year earlier, led by technology intensive goods, while crude import volumes stayed far below last year’s level and refinery utilisation remained deeply depressed. The two should not be read as evidence that China is producing record physical quantities of goods on far less energy, because trade statistics measure value rather than physical output, and price effects contributed to some high technology export growth. What the data do establish is a resilient export engine running alongside unusually weak crude demand, with the explanation for the second not yet settled between refining margins, product mix and inventory behaviour.
Looking ahead: The immediate tests are whether export growth holds once the tariff timing effect stops flattering the monthly figures, and whether refinery utilisation keeps climbing from July’s fifty eight point eight one percent. Customs publishes August data in early September, which will help separate a genuine recovery in crude demand from a rebound off an exceptionally weak June.
Sources: General Administration of Customs of China; Reuters; Bloomberg; Financial Times.
