Commodities Wrap 20 October: Midday, Expiring WTI Jumps 5.56 Percent in Its Final Session
The November WTI contract jumped 5.56 percent to 109.42 dollars a barrel in its final session before tonight’s expiry, and Brent traded above 111. Silver was the only metal higher as palladium fell 1.98 percent. Cocoa led agriculture at 1.23 percent while coffee gave back 0.67 after two leading settlements. The Cboe Volatility Index rose 2.11 percent to 18.83 before the New York open. The session’s settlements follow in this wrap’s evening update.
The expiring barrel pays the war premium to the end
The squeeze that gave November WTI an eighth straight settlement gain on Monday ran harder into its last day. The contract traded 5.76 dollars above Monday’s settlement at 109.42 at the 12:08 GMT reading, with expiry at tonight’s close. Brent added 1.48 percent to 111.17. The premium of December Brent over the expiring November WTI, a gap across benchmarks and delivery months, narrowed to 1.75 dollars from 5.89 at Monday’s settlements, our arithmetic. Within WTI itself, at a separate 12:23 GMT read, the December contract traded 2.03 percent above its own Monday settlement at 100.54 dollars, with the expiring November 7.01 dollars above it in the same reading, from 5.12 at Monday’s settlements, which is the expiry squeeze in one number. The morning’s selling on reports of a mediated United States and Iran negotiation reversed after Iran’s first vice president said the country had no choice but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, as Investing.com’s report carried it; the same report cited a Deutsche Bank note that a deal before the United States midterms in two weeks looks challenging and that recent strikes have slowed the recovery in Hormuz flows. The products followed the crude: heating oil rose 1.56 percent after two settlement gains and gasoline 0.50, while natural gas slipped 0.98 percent after two settlement declines. From tonight the December contract is the front month, measured against its own settlement.
Silver stands alone as the softs change leaders
The metals gave back Monday’s shape a second time. Silver’s 0.06 percent rise to 57.31 was the only gain, recovering part of Monday’s slip. Palladium fell 1.98 percent to 1,100.50, reversing its Monday rise in the deepest move on our list. Gold eased 0.39 percent to 4,144.00 after one decline, platinum 0.24 after three straight gains, and copper 0.13 after two. In agriculture, the leadership changed hands: cocoa rose 1.23 percent to 5,757.00 dollars a tonne in a second straight rise, while coffee, the leader at the last two settlements, gave back 0.67 percent to 313.60 cents. The grains recovered on the overnight session, wheat up 0.88 percent after three settlement declines, soybeans 0.44 after four and corn 0.16 after four, with cotton 0.31 higher and sugar 0.24 lower after two declines. The Cboe Volatility Index rose 2.11 percent to 18.83 before the New York open, and bitcoin eased 0.60 percent.
Energy
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a barrel | 109.42 | +5.56% |
| Heating Oil, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a gallon | 4.9969 | +1.56% |
| Brent Crude, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a barrel | 111.17 | +1.48% |
| Gasoline RBOB, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars a gallon | 3.2072 | +0.50% |
| Natural Gas, NYMEX (Nov’26), dollars per MMBtu | 3.028 | -0.98% |
Basis: intraday quotes at 12:08 GMT against Monday’s settlements, settlement to snapshot, ranked by change; contract months as displayed, with the November WTI contract in its final session before expiry.
Metals
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Silver, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | 57.31 | +0.06% |
| Copper, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars a pound | 6.567 | -0.13% |
| Platinum, NYMEX (Jan’27), dollars an ounce | 1,644.30 | -0.24% |
| Gold, COMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | 4,144.00 | -0.39% |
| Palladium, NYMEX (Dec’26), dollars an ounce | 1,100.50 | -1.98% |
Same settlement basis, ranked by change; silver was the only rise of the five.
Agriculture
| Contract | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Cocoa, ICE (Dec’26), dollars a tonne | 5,757.00 | +1.23% |
| Wheat, CBOT (Dec’26), cents a bushel | 661.00 | +0.88% |
| Soybeans, CBOT (Nov’26), cents a bushel | 1,259.00 | +0.44% |
| Sugar, ICE (Mar’27), cents a pound | 20.52 | -0.24% |
| Coffee, ICE (Dec’26), cents a pound | 313.60 | -0.67% |
Same settlement basis, five of the seven tracked rows ranked by change; the grain rows are the overnight session; cotton, up 0.31 percent at 80.38, and corn, up 0.16 at 467.75, are the omitted middle.
Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto
| Instrument | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Cboe Volatility Index | 18.83 | +2.11% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 101.845 | -0.13% |
| Dollar/Yen | 158.11 | -0.23% |
| Euro/Dollar | 1.1214 | +0.04% |
| Sterling/Dollar | 1.3345 | +0.32% |
| Bitcoin, dollars | $81,336.30 | -0.60% |
Intraday quotes at 12:08 GMT, in fixed order; no daily settlement on these rows.
Why it matters: Expiry day concentrated the rally in the barrel with hours left to trade: November WTI rose 5.56 percent while its own December contract rose 2.03 and December Brent 1.48, and November’s premium over December widened to 7.01 dollars. How much of that is war risk and how much is expiry positioning, tonight’s settlements start to answer. The metals sat the rally out, silver aside, and the softs changed leaders, cocoa taking the table from coffee. From tomorrow the December contract carries the franchise, measured against its own settlement.
Outlook: Our Middle East wrap follows the regional closes and our Europe wrap the closing auctions, with the session’s settlements replacing these quotes in this wrap’s evening update, where the WTI row rolls to December against its own settlement. SpaceX and Netflix report after Wall Street’s close, and the EIA’s weekly US inventories land on Wednesday.
How these wraps are prepared: Methodology.
Sources: CNBC, Investing.com, The Edge.
