Commodities Wrap 21 July: Brent Touches 91.99 in a Five-Week High as the Houthi Blockade Turns Tankers Around and Silver Leads a Broad Rally at 3.8 Percent

By The Edge Research Team

Tuesday was the day the whole commodities board rallied at once, and the volatility gauge fell anyway. Brent climbed 2.11 percent to 91.10 dollars in late New York trade, touching 91.99 in a five-week high, silver led the board with a 3.80 percent jump to 59.24 dollars, gold settled 1.5 percent higher at an official 4,076.40 and copper rose 2.93 percent, while the VIX dropped 8.42 percent to 17.08. Commodities were higher across the board on expectations that a ceasefire could be taking shape, a Marex analyst told Reuters, and that combination, a five-week high in oil alongside a falling fear gauge, says the market is pricing supply risk into the commodities themselves rather than fleeing risk assets, our reading of the session.

Energy carried the day’s escalation load. US forces bombed targets in the south and west of Iran overnight and Tehran struck US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, with at least one tanker hit in the Strait of Hormuz, per Reuters, while the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi shipping declared Monday produced its first measurable effect: two tankers loaded with Saudi crude for China and India made U-turns in the Red Sea and headed for the Suez Canal, per LSEG shipping data cited by Reuters, and the group told shipping companies by email not to load or discharge at Saudi ports. Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu was operating normally, per Reuters. West Texas Intermediate rose 2.11 percent to 84.99 dollars in a session that ran from 82.25 to 85.80, and Brent, which traded as low as 87.87 before the rally, was on track for its highest close since 10 June and entered a seventh straight day in technically overbought territory, the first such run since June 2025, per Reuters. The escalation-era sequence of these wraps now reads 76.01, 83.30, 84.73, 84.95, 84.23, 88.17, 89.17 and 91.10, leaving Brent about 19.9 percent above its 10 July pre-escalation settlement, our calculation, with the Brent-WTI spread little changed at 6.11 dollars, our calculation. The supply data reinforced the price: Saudi crude exports fell for a third straight month in May to a record low per JODI figures released Tuesday, the IEA said member countries have released about 290 million barrels since 11 March out of a record 400 million agreed and still hold more than 1 billion barrels in emergency reserve, China’s June crude imports slumped 41.3 percent to their lowest in almost a decade, and analysts expect a 0.5 million barrel US crude draw in Wednesday’s official data, all per Reuters. US natural gas was flat at 2.862 dollars, up 0.07 percent.

Gold held the 4,000 line and rallied away from it, with the rates argument running against it. The most-active contract settled 1.5 percent higher at 4,076.40 dollars, the official print per Reuters, and stood at 4,088.50 in late trade, up 1.81 percent after touching 4,092.50, within about 0.7 percent below its pre-blockade close, our calculation. The bid came from ceasefire hopes and technical buying after the metal broke a downtrend in place since 6 July, per Reuters, and it absorbed a firmer dollar, a 10-year Treasury yield about 3 basis points higher at 4.63 percent, and futures pricing that puts roughly a 68 percent chance on a September rate hike per CME FedWatch figures cited by Reuters, with the Federal Reserve’s decision due next week. Silver’s 3.80 percent surge to 59.24 dollars, with a 59.55 session high, compressed the gold-to-silver ratio to 69.0 from Monday’s 70.4, our calculation, and the platinum-group metals rose together this time, platinum up 2.00 percent at 1,636.10 and palladium up 1.52 percent at 1,287.50.

The rest of the board traded the rebound rather than the strait. Copper rose 2.93 percent to 6.527 dollars a pound, extending Monday’s bounce as Asia’s chip complex snapped back and European mining shares gained, per Reuters, and Bitcoin added 1.76 percent to 66,225 dollars after touching 66,918.65, a second straight gain in our record. In Egypt, Reuters reported exclusively that Cairo is in talks with Shell, TotalEnergies and BP to buy 15 to 18 liquefied natural gas cargoes per month for at least three years, talks that, if concluded, would anchor the import side of its energy balance for years, and the pound held its ground below the 51 line at 50.97 per dollar. The cost side of the conflict showed elsewhere: Halliburton fell more than 6 percent after flagging uncertainty about the pace of Middle East recovery, per Reuters.

Why it matters: The war premium is now migrating into commodities as its own trade. A five-week high in Brent, a near 4 percent silver session and a copper rally coexisting with an 8 percent drop in the VIX means investors are buying exposure to supply disruption rather than selling risk, our reading, and the blockade’s first effect is routing, not volumes: tankers turning for Suez lengthen voyages and raise costs without yet removing barrels. The JODI record low in Saudi May exports is the reminder that the conflict was already cutting flows before the blockade was declared, and the strikes reaching sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan widen the map the market must price even as the ceasefire proposal keeps the diplomatic track alive.

Outlook: The answer to the 10-day ceasefire proposal that Tehran received from mediators, per Reuters, remains the central catalyst, with the API report tonight and official US inventory data Wednesday, where analysts expect a second straight crude draw, as the near markers. Watch whether the official oil settlements confirm the late quotes, whether more Saudi-loaded tankers divert to the Suez route, and whether gold can hold its reclaimed 4,000 to 4,076 range into next week’s Federal Reserve decision with September hike odds near 68 percent. The European Central Bank decides Thursday with Brent above 91 dollars inside its deliberations.

Table – Commodities, rates, volatility and crypto, late New York trade 21 July, ranked by change:

Price basis: CNBC quotes pulled about 18:40 UTC on 21 July, after the metals settlement and around the oil settlement window, against Monday’s closes; the gold settlement of 4,076.40 dollars is the official print per Reuters; session highs and lows per CNBC’s session fields; other figures are market quotes, not independently confirmed official settlements.

Sources: CNBC; Reuters.

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