Commodities Wrap 23 July: Brent Tops 100 Dollars on Red Sea Tanker Attacks as Fuels Follow While Precious Metals Reverse Lower

By The Edge Research Team

Oil broke above 100 dollars for the first time in the current confrontation. Brent crude jumped about 7.6 percent to just above 101 dollars, touching 102.00, and West Texas Intermediate rose about 6.8 percent to 92.73, after Yemen’s Houthis claimed drone and missile strikes on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and the US military pressed a twelfth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, per CNBC. The refined fuels followed crude higher, but the rest of the commodity complex went the other way: the entire precious-metals group reversed lower and the base metals fell with them, as US Treasury yields rose and the dollar firmed, turning the day into an inflation and rates story rather than a broad flight to safety, our reading. The figures below reflect CNBC quotes taken in the New York afternoon, at or just after the day’s futures settlements and intraday for the rest.

Energy led everything. Brent for September delivery climbed about 7.6 percent to 101.21 dollars and WTI about 6.8 percent to 92.73, extending a move that has now carried crude across the 100 dollar mark, per CNBC. The refined products followed: heating oil rose 4.95 percent and gasoline 3.16 percent, a sign the shock is feeding into fuel costs, our reading. Natural gas was the exception, easing 0.31 percent to 2.916 dollars per million British thermal units, tied to its own supply and weather balance rather than the geopolitical premium, our reading. The catalyst was security, not fundamentals: the reported attack on Saudi tankers off the kingdom’s coast, which the Saudi Press Agency said had set a fire on one vessel with its crew safe, a slowdown in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, and a twelfth night of US strikes on Iran, with President Trump saying Washington would hold Iran responsible for the Houthi attacks, per CNBC.

The metals told the opposite story. Gold fell 2.62 percent to about 4,043 dollars an ounce, silver dropped 4.30 percent to 57.71, platinum lost 3.27 percent and palladium 4.07 percent, while copper eased 2.73 percent to 6.316 dollars a pound. A day earlier the precious metals had climbed with oil on haven demand; on Thursday that link broke, as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.70 percent and the two-year to 4.36 percent and the dollar index added 0.32 percent, lifting the opportunity cost of holding metal that pays no yield, our reading. Silver’s underperformance pushed the gold to silver ratio up to about 70, from about 69 the day before, our calculation.

The agricultural markets were quieter and mixed. Cocoa rose 0.73 percent and corn added 0.41 percent, with cotton and soybeans marginally higher, while the grains and softs were otherwise soft: wheat fell 1.59 percent and coffee 1.86 percent, and sugar eased 0.41 percent. The complex traded on its own crop and harvest fundamentals, largely insulated from the energy shock, our reading.

Across the wider board, the move in rates was the pivot. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about four basis points to 4.70 percent and the two-year about six to 4.36 percent as the oil spike fed inflation expectations, per CNBC, and the dollar firmed against the major currencies, the euro off 0.31 percent and sterling 0.41 percent, while the yen weakened past 163.7. The Egyptian pound held near 51.25 and the Kuwaiti dinar near 0.3078. Market volatility jumped, the VIX climbing about 17 percent to 19.46, and equities felt the strain, with US indices under pressure as crude topped 100 dollars, per CNBC. Bitcoin eased 1.76 percent to about 64,750 dollars.

Why it matters: For the Gulf the signal cuts two ways. Higher crude lifts the region’s export revenues, a support for the producing economies, but the reason behind the move, attacks on tankers in the Red Sea and a slowdown through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, raises the security, insurance and freight costs that sit around the same exports, our reading. The break in the metals matters too: with the 10-year yield near its highest since January 2025, per CNBC, gold lost its usual haven bid, which trims, at the margin, the mark-to-market gains on the gold reserves that regional central banks hold, though the metal remains historically elevated, our reading. Egypt and Jordan, as energy importers, face the opposite pressure, a heavier import bill if crude holds near 100 dollars.

Outlook: The near-term drivers are whether Brent can hold above 100 dollars, whether the disruption in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb spreads or eases, and whether traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers. For the metals, the path of Treasury yields will set the tone, since a further rise would keep gold and silver on the back foot even with the geopolitical risk in the background. For natural gas, domestic weather demand and the weekly US Energy Information Administration storage data are the markers, with the fuel trading on its own supply balance rather than the oil premium. Hostilities were continuing after the pull, and the risk premium in oil could build further if the shipping disruption widens.

Table – Energy, 23 July, ranked by change:

Table – Metals, 23 July, ranked by change:

Table – Agriculture, 23 July, ranked by change:

Table – Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto, intraday 23 July, ranked by percent change:

Price basis: all figures are CNBC quotes captured in the New York afternoon on 23 July, at or just after the day’s futures settlements for the energy, metal and agricultural contracts and intraday for the US Treasury yields, currencies, the VIX and Bitcoin; energy and metal levels are front-month futures; agricultural prices are quoted in US cents per bushel for wheat, corn and soybeans, US cents per pound for coffee, sugar and cotton, and US dollars per metric ton for cocoa; the euro and sterling are dollars per unit and the yen, Egyptian pound and Kuwaiti dinar are units per dollar.

Sources: CNBC; Saudi Press Agency.

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