Commodities Wrap 24 September: Natural Gas Jumps 8 Percent as Brent Pulls Back From a Run at 108

By The Edge Research Team

The gas market outran the war trade on Thursday. Natural gas jumped 8.17 percent to 3.27 dollars a million Btu at our 18:52 GMT post settlement capture, the largest move on our board in either direction, while Brent traded 3.15 percent higher at 106.33 dollars a barrel, off the session high of 108.23 the network’s oil report carried after Houthi militants fired a barrage of missiles at Saudi Arabia; the report’s final version carries Brent 3.4 percent higher to close at 106.60 dollars, with WTI settling 2.7 percent higher at 94.61, and our rows below stay on the 18:52 capture basis as stated in the notes. The pullback from the high came, per the report, on word that United States and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased deal to end the standoff in the Gulf, with a senior Iranian official telling Reuters, as carried by the network, that the most realistic path forward is for Tehran to allow navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States ending its naval blockade. The metals split after Wednesday’s board, when all five fell, and heating oil lost 2.12 percent in the second session of a widening diesel fight in Washington.

The barrel runs at 108 and meets a phased deal report

The session’s shape was a spike and a pullback. Brent rose about 5 percent to a session high of 108.23 dollars, per the network’s report, after Saudi armed forces intercepted six ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis at the cities of Yanbu and Taif, per a military spokesperson as carried, with the report noting Yanbu is a key oil export terminal on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. By our capture the barrel had given back about two dollars of the spike and held the rest, Brent 3.15 percent higher at 106.33 and WTI 2.42 percent higher at 94.39 on the November contract, as the report’s headline turned to the pullback: negotiators discussing a phased deal on the sidelines of the General Assembly, the week’s defiant speeches notwithstanding, President Donald Trump’s Tuesday line that he faced a “big decision” about whether to negotiate or “annihilate” the Islamic Republic and President Masoud Pezeshkian’s Wednesday vow that Iran will fight back “until our last breath”, all per the network. The report’s own month frame has Brent more than 17 percent higher in September and United States crude up more than 10 percent, and the demand tape underneath is the one our wraps carried all day: Asia on track to import 23.96 million barrels of crude a day this month, its highest run since the start of the war, per a Reuters report citing Kpler data as carried by the network.

Diesel becomes a letter fight as the gas market takes the lead

The products column is where the politics landed. Heating oil fell 2.12 percent at our capture, a second session lower after Wednesday’s late slide on a Politico report, as recorded, that the administration was preparing a 90 day diesel export ban plan, a report the White House then denied as our record carries, and Thursday’s session carried the pushback: the United States Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable, National Association of Manufacturers, American Petroleum Institute and dozens of other groups wrote to Trump that a ban would “lead to less fuel production, tighter supplies and rising costs for American families, farmers and truckers”, per the network’s report on the letter, which also carried Trump’s Tuesday remark, “I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel. We make a lot of diesel.”, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the White House is examining whether a ban is “feasible in terms of the overall refining capacity and whether a full or partial ban would work”, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright telling The New York Times that “nobody wants a full blanket ban or zero exports of diesel” and that “That’s not being discussed”. Diesel at the pump averaged 6.51 dollars a gallon on Thursday, 2.82 dollars above a year earlier, per AAA data as carried. Gasoline slipped 1.16 percent alongside. Above it all, natural gas jumped 8.17 percent to 3.27 dollars, the board’s outlier; the United States Energy Information Administration’s weekly report, released at 14:30 GMT, showed a 53 billion cubic foot injection to 3,351 billion cubic feet of working gas for the week ended 18 September, stocks 146 billion cubic feet below a year earlier and 95 billion cubic feet above the five year average, per the agency’s own page, and we record the release beside the move without assigning cause, with no attributed driver in the wire entries we recorded. The metals went both ways, palladium 0.98 percent higher and copper up 0.47 percent against silver’s 1.11 percent fall and gold 0.24 percent lower at 4,308.20 dollars an ounce, agriculture leaned lower outside cocoa’s 1.19 percent rise, and the volatility index sat 2.11 percent higher at 15.50 with the United States cash session open at our capture, bitcoin flat on the day.

Energy

Levels captured after the settlement window at 18:52 GMT on Thursday 24 September 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s settlements as carried in the price feed; post settlement snapshots, not the official settlements. The Brent and WTI previous values match the written settlements cited in our 23 September wraps exactly. Contract months as displayed at capture; the WTI row is the November 2026 contract, as disclosed in our 22 September wrap, so its change is measured against November’s own Wednesday settlement as the feed carries it.

Metals

Levels captured after the settlement window at 18:52 GMT on Thursday 24 September 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s settlements as carried in the price feed; post settlement snapshots, not the official settlements. Contract months as displayed at capture.

Agriculture

Levels captured after the settlement window at 18:52 GMT on Thursday 24 September 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s settlements as carried in the price feed; post settlement snapshots, not the official settlements. Contract months as displayed at capture. Soybeans (Nov’26, 1,316.50 cents a bushel, down 0.11 percent) and coffee (Dec’26, 276.60 cents a pound, up 0.25 percent) are omitted as the board’s smallest absolute movers.

Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto

Intraday quotes from the same 18:52 GMT capture on Thursday 24 September 2026, ranked by change, measured against Wednesday’s reference levels as carried in the price feed; snapshot levels of continuously traded instruments, not settlements, captured with the United States cash session open, so the VIX row is an intraday level rather than a closing print. Bitcoin (84,453.20 dollars, down 1.46 dollars on the day, 0.00 percent on the feed’s own rounding) is omitted as the board’s smallest absolute mover.

Why it matters: the war premium met a fresh de-escalation headline and kept most of the move, on our reading. A barrel that spiked to 108.23 on missiles fired at two Saudi cities, one of them a key Red Sea oil export hub, and gave back about two dollars on a phased deal report is a market pricing the strait as a condition, not a headline, and the report’s own month frame, Brent up more than 17 percent in September, is the measure of how much conditionality is already in the price. The board’s actual leader tells a second story: an 8.17 percent natural gas jump, hours after a storage print we record beside the move without assigning cause, landing in the same week diesel became a letter fight between the White House and the groups that buy and refine the barrel, reads as the fuels complex repricing supply on its own schedule, on our reading. Across everything we published today, the day’s best index is the Nikkei 225 at 0.76 percent higher and the worst the Shenzhen Component at 2.34 percent lower, on our count.

Outlook: our United States wrap follows tonight with the full New York session, carrying this board’s commodity rows on tonight’s basis pending a fresh read of the wire for written settlements. Seoul is shut Friday for Chuseok and returns Monday 28 September, and Riyadh’s next session opens the new Gulf trading week after its first day back. For this board the near test is whether the phased deal report caps the barrel below its session high, with the strait’s reopening now framed on both sides as an exchange of conditions.

Sources: CNBC, Reuters, US Energy Information Administration, The Edge.

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