Commodities Wrap 6 October: Coffee Leads at 3.64 Percent as Grains Rally

By The Edge Research Team

Coffee led the commodity complex on Tuesday, up 3.64 percent at 303.20 cents a pound on the December contract by the 19:05 GMT reading. The grains followed, with corn 2.26 percent higher, soybeans up 1.87 percent and wheat adding 1.77 percent. Gold’s December contract settled 0.7 percent higher at 4,187.10 dollars an ounce and traded at 4,202.60 by our reading. Brent settled 26 cents higher at 100.58 dollars a barrel and WTI one cent higher at 89.44, and all five energy contracts stood above Monday’s settlements at our reading. Cocoa and platinum were the only two of the seventeen tracked contracts to stand lower.

Gulf exports and a stockpile plan hold crude near 100 dollars

Reuters’ oil report had the session little changed after earlier losses were recovered, with rising Middle Eastern exports and a planned Group of Seven stockpile release weighed against supply risks from Houthi attacks. It carried the Vitol chief executive’s estimate that around 12 million barrels per day of crude and 2 million of refined products left the Middle East on tankers over the past seven to ten days, and the Saudi energy minister’s figure of 5.8 million barrels through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu as of Tuesday morning. The same report noted Monday evening’s attacks on the Jazan and Najran airports, which injured three people and caused limited damage by the Saudi aviation authority’s account, the Group of Seven’s Friday agreement to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves with the split still unannounced, and the International Energy Agency’s meeting next week on the details. The US Energy Information Administration raised its price forecasts in Tuesday’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, which now sees Brent averaging about 98 dollars a barrel in 2026, up 8 percent on last month’s forecast, about 105 dollars in the fourth quarter, 14 dollars above its prior estimate, and 84 dollars in 2027, while projecting world production dropping to 101.1 million barrels per day in 2026 and demand to 102.4 million, from 2025’s records of 106.3 and 104.4. Analysts estimate a 1.7 million barrel crude build for the week ended 2 October, a third straight weekly increase if confirmed.

Gold settles higher as the yield rally pauses

The same agency’s gold report had the December contract settling 0.7 percent higher at 4,187.10 dollars an ounce, supported by a pause in the Treasury yield rally, with the ten year off Monday’s more than two decade high, and a dollar easing from its one year high. An American Gold Exchange analyst carried in that report tied part of the bid to safe haven demand on French bond market turmoil, and the Federal Reserve’s September minutes arrive on Wednesday, with pricing as carried there at a 22 percent chance of an October increase and 84 percent for December; TD Securities maintained its view of above 5,000 dollars an ounce in 2027 in a note carried alongside. Silver rose 1.09 percent to 61.97 dollars by our reading and copper added 0.35 percent. In the softs and grains, coffee’s December contract added 10.65 cents on the day, corn, soybeans and wheat each rose more than 1.7 percent, cocoa fell 1.79 percent as the deepest commodity decline, and sugar and cotton, the middle of the ranked list, added 0.68 and 0.42 percent.

Energy

Levels as displayed in the price feed at 19:05 GMT on Tuesday 6 October 2026, ranked by change against Monday’s settlements as carried in the feed; quotes, not settlements: Brent and WTI settled at 100.58 and 89.44 dollars.

Metals

Same read and basis, ranked by change; platinum was the only metal below Monday’s settlement, and gold’s own December settlement of 4,187.10 dollars is in the text above.

Agriculture

Same read and basis, five of the seven tracked rows, with sugar at 0.68 percent and cotton at 0.42 omitted in the middle; the agriculture figures were unchanged between our two reads.

Rates, currencies, volatility and crypto

Reference rows at the same read, ranked by change; intraday levels, with the bitcoin row the Coin Metrics dollar price as the feed carries it.

Why it matters: Fifteen of the seventeen tracked contracts stood higher against Monday’s settlements, and the leadership sat in the softs and grains rather than energy, which reads as broad firmness rather than a single supply story. Crude settling little changed near the three digit mark shows the offset at work: stockpile releases and resumed Gulf exports capping the upside while the risk of further supply disruption limited the declines. Gold settling higher while equity volatility eased says the bid sits in bonds and policy rather than equity fear, with safe haven demand tied to French debt alongside softer yields and a softer dollar, a question Wednesday’s minutes will test. Across everything we published on Tuesday, Riyadh’s Tadawul All Share and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 share the day’s best close at 1.05 percent higher and Seoul’s Kospi remains the deepest fall at 0.89 percent lower, on our count.

Outlook: Our US wrap follows after the New York close and carries tonight’s four tables unchanged. The American Petroleum Institute’s weekly estimate lands tonight and the official inventory data on Wednesday, the same day as the Federal Reserve’s September minutes, as published in our Week Ahead of 3 October.

How these wraps are prepared: Methodology.

Sources: CNBC, Reuters, The Edge.

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