Commodities Wrap: Gold Rebounds Toward US$4,100 an Ounce as Oil Falls and Natural Gas Slips
Settlement prices in this wrap are the official Friday 26 June exchange settlements, the last regular session before the weekend, captured using CNBC front-month futures as the controlling source. Latest levels refer to late Friday electronic or delayed quotes where available. Markets are closed on Saturday 27 June, so these are the latest available references until trading resumes.
Gold rebounded on Friday, with the COMEX August contract settling near 4,096 dollars an ounce and last quoted around 4,103 dollars, up about 1.4 percent on the day, as the dollar eased slightly and Treasury yields slipped after in line US inflation data. The metal still ended lower on the week after earlier pressure from a firmer dollar and higher rate expectations. Silver also recovered, with the COMEX July contract settling near 59.22 dollars an ounce and last quoted around 59.16 dollars.
In energy, crude extended its retreat. Brent for August settled at 71.99 dollars a barrel, down about 4.3 percent on the day and lower for a third straight week, while US West Texas Intermediate for August was last trading around 70.24 dollars, down about 2.3 percent, leaving the Brent to WTI spread near 1.75 dollars a barrel. The softer tone reflected rising regional export volumes, normalizing supply and growing expectations of a 2026 global surplus. Natural gas eased, with the Henry Hub July contract settling near 3.23 dollars per million British thermal units, down about 3.4 percent as the expiring contract gave back recent gains, leaving the broader curve sensitive to US weather, LNG export demand and domestic production.
Industrial metals and the dollar
Copper firmed, with the COMEX July contract trading around 6.12 dollars a pound, up about 0.8 percent on the day, holding well above the 6 dollar level on supply constraints and longer term electrification demand, even as industrial demand signals stayed mixed. The ICE US Dollar Index was little changed near 101.37, against 101.43 in the previous session, holding close to recent highs and remaining a key swing factor for dollar priced commodities.
Why it matters
For the region’s economies, the commodity backdrop cuts both ways. For Gulf energy exporters, Brent in the low 70s still supports budgets and export revenue as production and shipments normalize, though the path depends on export volumes, production policy and fiscal breakeven assumptions into a possible 2026 surplus. For the region’s energy importers, oil and gas well below the peaks seen earlier in the year ease the import bill and relieve pressure on external balances and inflation.
Gold near 4,100 dollars remains a barometer of investor caution and reserve diversification, and a core holding for the region’s central banks, institutions and family offices at the intersection of currency risk, inflation expectations and real yields.
The US backdrop stays central. May PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, rose to 4.1 percent year on year from 3.8 percent in April, while first quarter US real GDP growth was put at 2.1 percent annualized. With the Fed signalling a higher policy path after its June meeting, the dollar and US yields remain the main swing factors across metals, energy and broader risk assets.
Outlook
Attention turns to whether crude stabilizes after Friday’s retreat, whether gold can hold its rebound near 4,100 dollars, and whether the dollar stays close to recent highs. Markets will also watch US inventory data, global demand signals and central bank communication for the next directional move across the commodities complex.
Sources: CNBC; US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
