Egypt’s Inflation Rises to 14.9 Percent but Undershoots the 15.6 Forecast
Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation rose to fourteen point nine percent in July from fourteen point three percent in June, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics said on 10 August. The increase ends three consecutive months of deceleration, but it is smaller than the market had expected.
A Reuters poll of thirteen analysts, conducted between 29 July and 6 August, had a median forecast of fifteen point six percent, with estimates ranging from fourteen point six to sixteen point three percent. The outturn came in seven tenths of a percentage point below that median, and below all but the lowest forecasts in the range.
| 2026, annual urban inflation | Rate |
| February | 13.4 percent |
| March | 15.2 percent |
| April | 14.9 percent |
| May | 14.6 percent |
| June | 14.3 percent |
| July | 14.9 percent |
July matches April as the highest reading of the year so far. The three month run of easing that ran from April through June has now been interrupted, and the analysts polled by Reuters had attributed their higher forecasts to unfavourable base effects, food price pressure and firmer non-food inflation.
Core inflation, which the Central Bank of Egypt publishes separately and which strips out volatile items, rose to fourteen point seven percent in July from fourteen point three percent in June. It too came in below expectations: the analysts in the same Reuters poll had a median core forecast of fourteen point nine percent. Both measures were static on the month, with headline and core each recording no change at all. Within the detail, fruit and vegetable prices jumped to thirty one point five percent year on year from sixteen point nine percent in June, while regulated items eased to eleven point four percent from thirteen point seven.
The Monetary Policy Committee meets on 20 August. The overnight deposit rate stands at nineteen percent, where it was held at the committee’s meeting on 9 July. Neither the central bank nor the Ministry of Finance has commented on the July figure.
Why it matters: The direction and the magnitude tell different stories, and the magnitude is the more useful one. Inflation rose, which interrupts a run of easing that had been the clearest evidence that disinflation was taking hold. But it rose by materially less than thirteen analysts collectively expected, and a print that lands below the bottom half of a forecast range suggests the pressures those forecasts were built on, base effects and food costs in particular, are feeding through more slowly than assumed. Neither reading is decisive on its own. What the number does establish is that the path back to the central bank’s target range is not yet a straight line.
Looking ahead: The August reading carries a known upward shock that July did not: an electricity tariff increase of about twelve percent, which analysts polled before this release expected to land in August rather than July. That means the undershoot recorded here does not clear the path. Regulated items easing to eleven point four percent is the last clean reading before the electricity tariff increase enters the August index, and the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on 20 August is the next scheduled test.
Sources: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics; Central Bank of Egypt; Reuters.
