Euro Area Trade Surplus Widens to 14.2 Billion Euros as the Job Vacancy Rate Falls to 2.1 Percent
The euro area recorded a 14.2 billion euro surplus in goods trade with the rest of the world in July, against 10.7 billion in July 2025 and 7.2 billion in June. Eurostat published the first estimate on Tuesday. In a separate release the same morning, it put the euro area job vacancy rate at 2.1 percent in the second quarter, down from 2.3 percent in the first and 2.2 percent a year earlier.
July trade strengthened while labour demand softened. The year to date trade picture is considerably weaker than the monthly surplus suggests.
The monthly surplus improved and the year to date collapsed
| Euro area goods trade, not seasonally adjusted | Jul 2025 | Jul 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports outside the euro area | 253.3 bn euros | 276.0 bn euros | +9.0% |
| Imports from outside the euro area | 242.6 bn euros | 261.8 bn euros | +7.9% |
| Trade balance | 10.7 bn euros | 14.2 bn euros | |
| Trade inside the euro area | 231.3 bn euros | 241.4 bn euros | +4.4% |
As published by Eurostat. Source dataset ext_st_ea_sitc.
Eurostat attributes the improvement on the year mainly to a higher surplus in chemicals and related products, in other manufactured goods and in food and drink, partially offset by a smaller surplus in machinery and vehicles.
The year to date figure is the one that should stop a reader. The euro area surplus for January to July was 17.0 billion euros, against 92.8 billion in the same period of 2025. That is a fall of 75.8 billion euros on our calculation, and it happened while exports over the seven months grew 1.2 percent and imports grew 5.8 percent.
The European Union series is worse. The Union recorded an 8.0 billion euro surplus in July, down from 9.8 billion a year earlier, and a deficit of 13.8 billion for January to July against a surplus of 84.0 billion in the same period of 2025.
On seasonally adjusted data, euro area exports rose 1.2 percent on the month and imports fell 0.4 percent, taking the adjusted balance to 5.0 billion euros from 1.0 billion in June. The adjusted Union balance improved from minus 5.9 billion to minus 1.4 billion.
Vacancies fell in fifteen member states and rose in three
| Job vacancy rate, second quarter 2026 | Rate |
|---|---|
| Netherlands | 4.1% |
| Belgium | 3.3% |
| Malta | 3.1% |
| Austria | 2.9% |
| Euro area | 2.1% |
| European Union | 2.0% |
| Spain and Slovakia | 0.9% each |
| Poland and Bulgaria | 0.8% each |
| Romania | 0.5% |
Highest and lowest rates among the member states for which comparable data are available, as published.
Against the same quarter of 2025 the rate rose in three member states, held in eight and fell in fifteen. The rises were Slovenia at 0.3 percentage points, Greece at 0.2 and Sweden at 0.1. The largest falls were Cyprus at 0.7 points and Belgium at 0.6, then Austria at 0.5, Estonia at 0.4 and Italy at 0.3.
Within the euro area the rate was 2.0 percent in industry and construction and 2.2 percent in services.
Why it matters: a widening trade surplus normally reads as strength, and on the month it is. On the year it is not, because the seven month surplus has fallen by 75.8 billion euros and the Union has moved from an 84 billion euro surplus to a 13.8 billion euro deficit over the same period. The composition says why: across the seven months imports are growing almost five times faster than exports on our calculation. Set against that, the vacancy rate falling to 2.1 percent, with fifteen member states below where they were a year ago, points to easing unmet labour demand across much of the bloc. Belgium losing 0.6 points and Austria 0.5 in a single year are the sharpest national moves in the release.
Outlook: Eurostat publishes the next trade estimate on 16 October and the next job vacancy release on 16 December. The trade number to watch is the January to July cumulative rather than the monthly print, since the monthly series is volatile and the cumulative has moved 75.8 billion euros in a year. On vacancies, the Netherlands at 4.1 percent and Romania at 0.5 are now eight times apart on our calculation, and that spread, rather than the euro area average, is the labour market story.
Sources: Eurostat.
