German Inflation Eases to 2.8% in October as Core Rate Falls to 2.1%, Lowest Since 2021
Germany’s inflation rate eased to 2.8% in October from 3.3%, the Federal Statistical Office’s flash estimate showed, as consumer prices fell on the month and core inflation slowed.
For German households, October reverses September’s jump. For the European Central Bank, it brings a softer reading from Germany. In The Edge’s reading, the more telling move is underneath the headline: core and services inflation both fell to their lowest rates in more than four years, which suggests the slowdown reaches beyond fuel.
The figures come from Destatis press release No. 382 of 30 October 2026, published at 13:00 GMT. They are provisional, based on the results available so far. Final October results are due on 11 November.
Core inflation drops to its lowest since mid-2021
Inflation excluding food and energy, the measure often called core inflation, fell to 2.1% from 2.4%. It had stood at 2.4% in each of July, August and September.
That is the lowest core rate since June 2021, when it was 1.9%. In every month from July 2021 to September 2026, the published core rate was 2.3% or higher.
Services make up just over half of the basket by weight, and their inflation slowed to 2.5% from 2.7%. That is the weakest services rate since August 2022, when it stood at 2.3%. It is also a fourth straight monthly slowdown, from 3.1% in June.
Food inflation stayed at 0.4%. With food flat and core lower, the gap between the headline rate and core narrowed to 0.7 points, from 0.9 points in September.
On the harmonised index used for euro area comparisons, the rate was also 2.8%, down from 3.3%. Harmonised prices fell 0.1% on the month, after rising 0.6% in September.
Germany’s inflation rates, August to October 2026 (annual change, in %)
| Measure | Aug | Sep | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer prices | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Excluding food and energy | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Services | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Goods | 3.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Energy | 10.5 | 14.9 | 12.2 |
| Food | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
October figures are provisional. Consumer price index, change on the same month a year earlier. Weights per thousand: core 821.41, services 503.36, goods 496.64, food 104.69, energy 73.90.
Energy inflation slows to 12.2% from 14.9%
Energy prices were 12.2% higher than a year earlier, down from 14.9% in September. Energy carries a weight of 7.4% in the basket, against 82.1% for the core measure.
The published index series settles the direction. Energy prices rose 0.2% on the month in October 2025, the office reported in November 2025, so the annual energy rate could drop 2.7 points this October only if energy prices fell on the month, on The Edge’s arithmetic.
October is also the first month of a renewed cut in energy duty on petrol and diesel, in force from 1 October to 31 December 2026. The cut is an estimated 17 cents per litre, value added tax included, the office says. Its effect at the pump depends on whether oil companies pass it on in full.
A cut of the same size applied from 1 May to 30 June. Over those two months the energy index fell 6.5%, to 147.2 in June. In July, the first month after the discount lapsed, it rose 5.0%. Motor fuels and heating oil carry 32.16 of the energy index’s 73.90 per thousand, so the index also moves with electricity, gas and other household energy.
The overall inflation rate eased from 2.9% in April to 2.3% in June over the same span, before climbing back through the summer.
Energy price index, 2026 (2020 = 100)
| Month | Index | Monthly % |
|---|---|---|
| April | 157.4 | 2.1 |
| May | 151.7 | -3.6 |
| June | 147.2 | -3.0 |
| July | 154.6 | 5.0 |
| August | 157.2 | 1.7 |
| September | 163.2 | 3.8 |
Household energy and motor fuels in the consumer price index. The earlier fuel duty discount applied from 1 May to 30 June 2026. The October index level is not yet published.
A year on, goods and services have swapped places
The sharper change is against October 2025. A year ago services inflation was 3.5%, against 1.2% for goods. Services then ran 2.3 points ahead; now goods lead by 0.5 points.
Energy moved furthest of the measures in the table. Its annual rate went from a 0.9% decline in October 2025 to a 12.2% rise. Core inflation went the other way, down 0.7 points to 2.1%.
The monthly figures show why the annual rate fell so far in one month. Prices fell 0.2% this October, after rising 0.3% in October 2025. That half-point gap between the two Octobers matches the half-point drop in the annual rate.
October 2025 against October 2026 (annual change in %; difference in points)
| Measure | Oct 25 | Oct 26 | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer prices | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 |
| Excluding food and energy | 2.8 | 2.1 | -0.7 |
| Services | 3.5 | 2.5 | -1.0 |
| Goods | 1.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| Energy | -0.9 | 12.2 | 13.1 |
| Food | 1.3 | 0.4 | -0.9 |
October 2026 figures are provisional. Points are the difference between the two annual rates.
October’s 2.8% matches the July rate. Across 2026 the rate has ranged from 1.9% in February to 3.3% in September.
On the harmonised measure, Germany’s rate now stands a full point below France’s provisional October rate, set out earlier, after a gap of a tenth in September.
Price pressure has not gone. The headline rate is still above core, and energy remains 12.2% dearer than a year ago. The office also notes substantial changes to the harmonised index’s method and classification from January 2026.
What to watch:
11 November 2026: final German consumer prices for October.
31 December 2026: the fuel duty cut on petrol and diesel is due to end.
Method: German figures are from press release No. 382 of 30 October 2026, the office’s releases of 12 November 2025 and 13 October 2026, its published consumer price index tables (2020 = 100) and its note on federal government measures dated 30 October 2026; differences, monthly changes from index levels and comparisons not attributed to a source are The Edge’s calculations.
Sources: Destatis, INSEE, The Edge.
