Gold Rises for a Second Week and Is Still 18.8 Percent Below Its January PM Fixing High
Gold rose for a second consecutive week, with the LBMA Gold Price PM fixing at 4,390.70 dollars an ounce on Friday 14 August 2026, up 1.27 percent on the week after a 7.67 percent gain the week before. On COMEX, the December 2026 contract settled at 4,437.30 dollars, up 16.90 dollars or 0.38 percent on the day, with a last traded price of 4,432.00.
Two weeks of gains have added 9.04 percent. They follow a first half in which gold fell 7.82 percent, and they leave the metal 0.52 percent higher than where it ended 2025.
The year in one table
That last figure is what reframes the rally. Gold is essentially flat for 2026 after eight months.
| LBMA Gold Price, 2026 | Level, US$/oz | Change |
|---|---|---|
| End 2025, PM fixing of 30 December | 4,367.80 | reference |
| 2026 PM high, 29 January | 5,405.00 | +23.75 percent from end 2025 |
| 2026 all-auction high, AM of 29 January | 5,501.70 | LBMA records this as an all-time high |
| 2026 PM low, 16 July | 3,993.55 | −26.11 percent from the PM high |
| 2026 all-auction low, AM of 1 July | 3,978.55 | |
| Friday 14 August, PM | 4,390.70 | +9.94 percent from the PM low |
| Year to date | +0.52 percent | |
| Below the January PM high | −18.77 percent | |
| Below the January all-auction high | −20.19 percent |
London Bullion Market Association, LBMA Gold Price AM and PM daily auctions. Percentage changes are arithmetic on the fixings shown. There were 157 PM fixings in 2026 to 14 August, and no auction on 31 December 2025, which is why 30 December is the year-end reference.
The distinction between the two benchmarks matters, and it is why the headline figure is given twice. LBMA publishes separate morning and afternoon benchmarks, and this article uses the PM series consistently for its year-to-date comparisons. The morning auction of 29 January produced a higher print, and against that broader peak the 14 August fixing is 20.19 percent lower.
The shape of the year, month by month
| Month, 2026 | Change in the LBMA PM fixing |
|---|---|
| January | +14.06 percent |
| February | +4.83 percent |
| March | −11.76 percent |
| April | +0.07 percent |
| May | −1.42 percent |
| June | −11.44 percent |
| July | +0.01 percent |
| August, to the 14th | +9.04 percent |
London Bullion Market Association. Month comparisons use the last PM fixing of each month.
Two months did the damage, March and June, at minus 11.76 and minus 11.44 percent. Two did the recovery, January and the first half of August. April, May and July together came to almost nothing. A reader looking only at the year-to-date figure would see a market that had not moved. A reader looking only at the fortnight would see one up 9 percent. Both readings are incomplete.
Silver moved further in both directions
Silver fixed at 64.605 dollars an ounce on 14 August, after rising 11.42 percent in the week to 7 August and 0.44 percent in the week to 14 August. It remains down 10.26 percent for 2026 against gold’s 0.52 percent gain.
The gold to silver ratio, one price divided by the other, stood at 67.96 on 14 August against 60.67 at the end of 2025. Silver has underperformed across the year even after outrunning gold over the fortnight.
The policy backdrop is not a simple hold
The Federal Reserve has not changed its target range in 2026. The last move took effect on 11 December 2025, a 25 basis point cut to 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and the range has survived every meeting since.
The July meeting was not unanimous. On 29 July 2026 the Committee held the range on a 9 to 3 vote, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan voting against because they preferred to raise the target range by a quarter point. The statement records inflation as elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks in certain sectors including energy.
That is the detail a rate-cut narrative for gold has to survive. Three of twelve voters wanted tighter policy three weeks before the metal rose 9 percent.
| Verified US markers | Reading |
|---|---|
| Federal funds target range | 3.50 to 3.75 percent |
| July CPI, released 12 August | +0.1 percent on the month, 3.4 percent year on year |
| July core CPI | +0.2 percent on the month, 2.5 percent year on year |
| July CPI energy index | −1.5 percent on the month, +14.7 percent year on year |
| July retail sales, released 14 August | 763.6 bn dollars, −0.6 percent on the month, +5.0 percent year on year |
| August preliminary consumer sentiment | 51.0 |
| Long-run inflation expectations | 3.3 percent, third consecutive month |
| 2 year Treasury, 14 August | 4.17 percent |
| 10 year Treasury, 14 August | 4.68 percent nominal, 2.41 percent real |
| 30 year Treasury, 14 August | 5.25 percent nominal, 3.00 percent real |
Bureau of Labor Statistics; United States Census Bureau, which states that retail sales are not adjusted for price changes; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; United States Department of the Treasury, daily par yield curve and daily real yield curve.
Real yields are a particularly important measure of gold’s opportunity cost, because they capture the inflation-adjusted return available on competing government securities that carry no credit risk. On 14 August that was 2.41 percent at ten years and 3.00 percent at thirty. Gold rose 9 percent over a fortnight in which those real yields stayed firmly positive and the Committee’s dissents pointed toward tightening.
This article makes no causal claim about the fortnight. The price facts are verified and the causal account is not.
Why it matters
Gold is a reserve asset before it is a trade, and the number for a reserve manager is the year, not the fortnight. Gold has returned 0.52 percent in eight months while carrying a peak-to-trough fall of 26.11 percent from the January PM high to the July PM low. That is a low year-to-date return alongside a large intra-year drawdown. The case for holding it rests on diversification, liquidity and the absence of issuer credit risk, not on price stability, and 2026 has made that distinction unusually plain.
For the region’s bullion dealers, jewellery trade and physical buyers, the level matters more than the change. At 4,390.70 dollars an ounce gold is 3.15 times its 2019 LBMA PM average of 1,392.60 dollars, and 27.95 percent above the 2025 average of 3,431.54 dollars. Higher absolute prices tie up more working capital per unit of inventory and can affect buying behaviour even when percentage moves look small.
For allocators, the honest reading of the fortnight is that it recovered ground lost in June. It did not recover the year.
Outlook
Three dates are fixed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes August consumer prices on 11 September 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 15 and 16 September, with a Summary of Economic Projections, which is where any change in the rate path first appears in the Fed’s own numbers. August retail sales follow on 16 September, the second day of that meeting rather than before it.
The LBMA’s own survey of professional analysts, published 11 August 2026, gives a reference point for the rest of the year. Sixteen analysts produced an average year-end forecast of about 4,500 dollars, roughly 2.5 percent above the 14 August fixing, with individual forecasts ranging from 3,879 to 5,100 dollars. A spread of more than 1,200 dollars an ounce across sixteen professionals is itself the forecast.
The fortnight repaired part of the summer decline. It did not erase the volatility that has defined 2026. Real yields will be one of the key variables to watch from here, alongside inflation, the Fed’s September projections, geopolitical risk and investment demand.
Sources: London Bullion Market Association, LBMA Gold Price AM and PM and LBMA Silver Price daily auctions, and LBMA survey of professional analysts of 11 August 2026. CME Group, COMEX gold futures settlements. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, open market operations, FOMC statement of 29 July 2026 and meeting calendar. United States Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates and Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates. Bureau of Labor Statistics. United States Census Bureau. University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.
