IEA Asks All 32 Members to Weigh Extra Diesel Releases Ahead of 15 October Board Meeting
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has invited all 32 of its member governments, including those that have already delivered their March pledges in full, to assess whether additional diesel releases are needed, in a letter from Executive Director Fatih Birol, announced by the agency on 11 October, ahead of its Governing Board meeting on 15 October. Members that have not fully delivered are asked to see whether the oil stock releases still outstanding from the March collective action can be speeded up, prioritising diesel, with 100 million barrels of those pledges yet to reach the market. On our calculation, the 325 million barrels released by 7 October equal 81.25 percent of the 400 million barrels pledged in March.
Two requests ahead of the 15 October board meeting
The letter sets out 2 steps. Members that have not fully delivered their March volumes are asked to see whether they can accelerate the remaining releases, prioritising diesel; Birol noted that some members have already released more than they first pledged. All members, including those that have finished, are encouraged to assess whether further diesel releases are necessary, taking account of the agency’s diesel market assessment and the statement by G7 leaders, and where they consider releases appropriate, to set out their scale, timing and supplemental nature. Birol wrote that market conditions merit immediate attention and are best handled through continued cooperation, with the March action still underway and serving as a framework for further near-term steps.
The letter follows a 7 October meeting at which member governments backed completing the March releases as soon as possible and supported releasing diesel stocks first, to the extent possible. It also follows the leaders’ statement of 2 October, published by the French presidency, which committed to a coordinated release through the agency of 100 million barrels, to begin immediately and run over 4 months, with a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days by G7 members and partners. The statement said that figure takes account of commitments already fulfilled, and it matches the agency’s own estimate of the March volume still to come. On our reading, the leaders’ plan is a delivery schedule for existing pledges rather than new barrels; the same statement left room to discuss additional diesel releases as necessary, which is the question Birol has now put to all members.
On the supply side, Birol told the G7 leaders’ meeting on 2 October that crude oil exports from the Middle East have recovered significantly, while refined product flows remain severely constrained.
Where the March collective action stands
The March 2026 collective action in figures
| Measure | Million barrels | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Pledged when agreed | 400 | 11 Mar 2026 |
| Country contributions confirmed | 426 | 19 Mar 2026 |
| Released so far | 325 | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Still to be released | 100 | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Public emergency stocks remaining | 1,100 | 7 Oct 2026 |
| Of which diesel | Over 200 | 7 Oct 2026 |
Released, outstanding and stock volumes are the agency’s own rounded estimates. The 426 million barrel total includes a 28 million barrel production increase, 23.6 million barrels of it from Canada.
The country table published on 19 March, which the agency described as not final, put contributions at 426 million barrels against the 400 million announced on 11 March, with components as printed of 280 million barrels from public stocks, 119 million from obligated industry stocks and a 28 million barrel production increase, 23.6 million of it from Canada. The 325 million barrels released equal 76.29 percent of the 426 million total on our calculation.
The reserve behind those releases is still large. Public emergency stocks of 1,100 million barrels are 3.38 times the volume released so far on our calculation. Each member is obliged to keep oil stocks equal to at least 90 days of its net imports.
On our reading, the make-up of the action explains why diesel needed a separate push. In the 19 March breakdown, crude accounted for 301 million barrels, 70.66 percent of the total on our calculation, and refined products for 125 million, or 29.34 percent. The entire US contribution of 172.2 million barrels was crude, while European members, including the United Kingdom, Norway and Türkiye, pledged 117.8 million barrels between them and were expected to contribute mainly in refined products.
Why diesel is the pinch point
Diesel and gasoil account for nearly 30 percent of global oil demand, according to the agency’s September Oil Market Report, published on 11 September. Net exports of the fuel from Gulf countries averaged 390 thousand barrels a day in August, just over a quarter of pre-war levels. Russia’s refining system was disrupted and its product exports came close to a halt. Combined, net diesel and gasoil exports from the Gulf and Russia were 1.6 million barrels a day lower in August than in February, when the 2 suppliers made up almost 45 percent of global seaborne trade in the fuel. In the United States, diesel passed 200 dollars a barrel in early September, 94 percent above pre-war levels, with Europe and Asia not far behind.
Global observed oil stocks fell by 507 million barrels between February and the end of August, an average draw of 2.8 million barrels a day, including 95 million barrels in August alone. At August’s draw of 95 million barrels over 31 days, the 100 million barrels outstanding equal 32.63 days of drawdown on our calculation.
Global refinery throughput reached a summer peak of 81.4 million barrels a day in August, and refining margins reached record levels in the Atlantic Basin, led by sharply higher diesel cracks.
Why it matters: The letter moves the agency’s members from finishing old pledges to deciding whether a second round is needed, and it makes diesel, not crude, the measure of success. The March action is the largest the agency has coordinated and its sixth since it was founded in 1974, after 1991, 2005, 2011 and twice in 2022. With crude making up 70.66 percent of the March volumes, any new offer will be judged on how much diesel it adds and how quickly it can move.
Outlook: The October Oil Market Report is due on 14 October, a day before the Governing Board meets on 15 October to take stock of deliveries and of any new diesel offers. Member governments agreed on 7 October to review the situation at that meeting. The leaders’ statement asked for a follow-up report to be delivered before 20 days, which on our calculation means before 22 October.
Sources: International Energy Agency, Élysée, The Edge.
