Gulf Crude Exports Surge 4.4 Million Barrels a Day to 13.9 Million in September, IEA Says
Crude oil exports from Gulf producers, led by Saudi Arabia, surged by 4.4 million barrels a day to 13.9 million in September, reaching more than 75 percent of pre-war levels, the International Energy Agency said in its Oil Market Report on 14 October. Global oil supply rose 2.5 million barrels a day on the month to 102.3 million, with OPEC+ gains of 2.1 million led by Saudi Arabia, while the United Arab Emirates drove the increase outside the group.
Hormuz flows and the East-West pipeline
Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman helped lift total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz by 3.7 million barrels a day to 10.9 million, while the swift return of East-West pipeline flows raised exports that bypass the strait by 970,000 barrels a day to 5.6 million. The rebound led the agency to raise its estimate of third quarter global supply by 190,000 barrels a day, and it expects supply to average 101.4 million barrels a day in the second half, up from 96.4 million in the second quarter. It left its projections for the rest of the year largely unchanged because of heightened security concerns in the region in October.
Refined product exports from the Middle East recovered more slowly, rising 210,000 barrels a day to 1.9 million, and liquefied petroleum gas rose 90,000 to 670,000, against pre-war levels of 4.7 million and 1.5 million.
Middle East oil flows, September 2026, million barrels a day
| Flow | September | Change on August |
|---|---|---|
| Gulf crude exports | 13.9 | 4.4 |
| Strait of Hormuz flows | 10.9 | 3.7 |
| Bypass exports | 5.6 | 0.97 |
| Refined product exports | 1.9 | 0.21 |
| LPG exports | 0.67 | 0.09 |
As published in the agency’s October report. The flows overlap and should not be added together.
Demand still set to fall this year
The agency forecasts world oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.4 million, with diesel accounting for 25 percent of the drop, and to recover by 2 million in 2027, leaving 2027 consumption 620,000 barrels a day below 2025. That compares with growth of 180,000 barrels a day in 2026 forecast in the report OPEC published a day earlier, a gap of 2.8 million barrels a day between the 2 forecasts on our calculation. The agency expects constrained middle distillate supplies to persist well into 2027. Global observed inventories fell 10 million barrels in September to 509 million below end-February. North Sea Dated crude averaged 116.89 dollars a barrel in September, up 26.17 dollars, and was trading at around 134 dollars at the time of writing, the agency said.
Why it matters: The rebound in Gulf crude exports to more than three quarters of pre-war levels returns much of the region’s supply to world markets, and the agency’s upgrade of 190,000 barrels a day to third quarter supply reflects that recovery, on our reading.
Outlook: The agency’s next Oil Market Report is due on 13 November.
Sources: International Energy Agency, OPEC, The Edge.
